4 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
- ItemSensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2009) Kawa, S.R.; Stolarski, R.S.; Newman, P.A.; Douglass, A.R.; Rex, M.; Hofmann, D.J.; Santee, M.L.; Frieler, K.The impact and significance of uncertainties in model calculations of stratospheric ozone loss resulting from known uncertainty in chemical kinetics parameters is evaluated in trajectory chemistry simulations for the Antarctic and Arctic polar vortices. The uncertainty in modeled ozone loss is derived from Monte Carlo scenario simulations varying the kinetic (reaction and photolysis rate) parameters within their estimated uncertainty bounds. Simulations of a typical winter/spring Antarctic vortex scenario and Match scenarios in the Arctic produce large uncertainty in ozone loss rates and integrated seasonal loss. The simulations clearly indicate that the dominant source of model uncertainty in polar ozone loss is uncertainty in the Cl2O 2 photolysis reaction, which arises from uncertainty in laboratory-measured molecular cross sections at atmospherically important wavelengths. This estimated uncertainty in JCl 2O2 from laboratory measurements seriously hinders our ability to model polar ozone loss within useful quantitative error limits. Atmospheric observations, however, suggest that the Cl2O2 photolysis uncertainty may be less than that derived from the lab data. Comparisons to Match, South Pole ozonesonde, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data all show that the nominal recommended rate simulations agree with data within uncertainties when the Cl2O2 photolysis error is reduced by a factor of two, in line with previous in situ ClOx measurements. Comparisons to simulations using recent cross sections from Pope et al. (2007) are outside the constrained error bounds in each case. Other reactions producing significant sensitivity in polar ozone loss include BrO + ClO and its branching ratios. These uncertainties challenge our confidence in modeling polar ozone depletion and projecting future changes in response to changing halogen emissions and climate. Further laboratory, theoretical, and possibly atmospheric studies are needed.
- ItemMeteorological and trace gas factors affecting the number concentration of atmospheric Aitken (DP Combining double low line 50 nm) particles in the continental boundary layer: Parameterization using a multivariate mixed effects model(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Mikkonen, S.; Korhonen, H.; Romakkaniemi, S.; Smith, J.N.; Joutsensaari, J.; Lehtinen, K.E.J.; Hamed, A.; Breider, T.J.; Birmili, W.; Spindler, G.; Plass-Duelmer, C.; Facchini, M.C.; Laaksonen, A.Measurements of aerosol size distribution and different gas and meteorological parameters, made in three polluted sites in Central and Southern Europe: Po Valley, Italy, Melpitz and Hohenpeissenberg in Germany, were analysed for this study to examine which of the meteorological and trace gas variables affect the number concentration of Aitken (Dp= 50 nm) particles. The aim of our study was to predict the number concentration of 50 nm particles by a combination of in-situ meteorological and gas phase parameters. The statistical model needs to describe, amongst others, the factors affecting the growth of newly formed aerosol particles (below 10 nm) to 50 nm size, but also sources of direct particle emissions in that size range. As the analysis method we used multivariate nonlinear mixed effects model. Hourly averages of gas and meteorological parameters measured at the stations were used as predictor variables; the best predictive model was attained with a combination of relative humidity, new particle formation event probability, temperature, condensation sink and concentrations of SO2, NO2 and ozone. The seasonal variation was also taken into account in the mixed model structure. Model simulations with the Global Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP) indicate that the parameterization can be used as a part of a larger atmospheric model to predict the concentration of climatically active particles. As an additional benefit, the introduced model framework is, in theory, applicable for any kind of measured aerosol parameter.
- ItemTreatment of non-ideality in the SPACCIM multiphase model - Part 1: Model development(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Rusumdar, A.J.; Wolke, R.; Tilgner, A.; Herrmann, H.Ambient tropospheric deliquesced particles generally comprise a complex mixture of electrolytes, organic compounds, and water. Dynamic modeling of physical and chemical processes in this complex matrix is challenging. Thus, up-to-date multiphase chemistry models generally do not consider non-ideal solution effects. Therefore, the present study was aimed at presenting further development of the SPACCIM (Spectral Aerosol Cloud Chemistry Interaction Model) through treatment of solution non-ideality, which has not been considered before. The present paper firstly describes the model developments including (i) the implementation of solution non-ideality in aqueous-phase reaction kinetics in the SPACCIM framework, (ii) the advancements in the coupling scheme of microphysics and multiphase chemistry and (iii) the required adjustments of the numerical schemes, especially in the sparse linear solver and the calculation of the Jacobian. Secondly, results of sensitivity investigations are outlined, aiming at the evaluation of different activity coefficient modules and the examination of the contributions of different intermolecular forces to the overall activity coefficients. Finally, first results obtained with the new model framework are presented. The SPACCIM parcel model was developed and, so far, applied for the description of aerosol–cloud interactions. To advance SPACCIM also for modeling physical and chemical processes in deliquesced particles, the solution non-ideality has to be taken into account by utilizing activities in reaction terms instead of aqueous concentrations. The main goal of the extended approach was to provide appropriate activity coefficients for solved species. Therefore, an activity coefficient module was incorporated into the kinetic model framework of SPACCIM. Based on an intercomparison of different activity coefficient models and the comparison with experimental data, the AIOMFAC approach was implemented and extended by additional interaction parameters from the literature for mixed organic–inorganic systems. Moreover, the performance and the capability of the applied activity coefficient module were evaluated by means of water activity measurements, literature data and results of other activity coefficient models. Comprehensive comparison studies showed that the SpactMod (SPACCIM activity coefficient module) is valuable for predicting the thermodynamic behavior of complex mixtures of multicomponent atmospheric aerosol particles. First simulations with a detailed chemical mechanism have demonstrated the applicability of SPACCIM-SpactMod. The simulations indicate that the treatment of solution non-ideality might be needed for modeling multiphase chemistry processes in deliquesced particles. The modeled activity coefficients imply that chemical reaction fluxes of chemical processes in deliquesced particles can be both decreased and increased depending on the particular species involved in the reactions. For key ions, activity coefficients on the order of 0.1–0.8 and a strong dependency on the charge state as well as the RH conditions are modeled, implying a lowered chemical processing of ions in concentrated solutions. In contrast, modeled activity coefficients of organic compounds are in some cases larger than 1 under deliquesced particle conditions and suggest the possibility of an increased chemical processing of organic compounds. Moreover, the model runs have shown noticeable differences in the pH values calculated with and without consideration of solution non-ideality. On average, the predicted pH values of the simulations considering solution non-ideality are −0.27 and −0.44 pH units lower under 90 and 70 % RH conditions, respectively. More comprehensive results of detailed SPACCIM-SpactMod studies on the multiphase processing in organic–inorganic mixtures of deliquesced particles are described in a companion paper.
- ItemComplete synchronization of chaotic atmospheric models by connecting only a subset of state space(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2012) Hiemstra, P.H.; Fujiwara, N.; Selten, F.M.; Kurths, J.Connected chaotic systems can, under some circumstances, synchronize their states with an exchange of matter and energy between the systems. This is the case for toy models like the Lorenz 63, and more complex models. In this study we perform synchronization experiments with two connected quasi-geostrophic (QG) models of the atmosphere with 1449 degrees of freedom. The purpose is to determine whether connecting only a subset of the model state space can still lead to complete synchronization (CS). In addition, we evaluated whether empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) form efficient basis functions for synchronization in order to limit the number of connections. In this paper, we show that only the intermediate spectral wavenumbers (5-12) need to be connected in order to achieve CS. In addition, the minimum connection timescale needed for CS is 7.3 days. Both the connection subset and the connection timescale, or strength, are consistent with the time and spatial scales of the baroclinic instabilities in the model. This is in line with the fact that the baroclinic instabilities are the largest source of divergence between the two connected models. Using the Lorenz 63 model, we show that EOFs are nearly optimal basis functions for synchronization. The QG model results show that the minimum number of EOFs that need to be connected for CS is a factor of three smaller than when connecting the original state variables.