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- ItemGreenhouse gas effects on the solar cycle response of water vapour and noctilucent clouds(Katlenburg, Lindau : Copernicus, 2023) Vellalassery, Ashique; Baumgarten, Gerd; Grygalashvyly, Mykhaylo; Lübken, Franz-JosefThe responses of water vapour (H2O) and noctilucent clouds (NLCs) to the solar cycle are studied using the Leibniz Institute for Middle Atmosphere (LIMA) model and the Mesospheric Ice Microphysics And tranSport (MIMAS) model. NLCs are sensitive to the solar cycle because their formation depends on background temperature and the H2O concentration. The solar cycle affects the H2O concentration in the upper mesosphere mainly in two ways: directly through the photolysis and, at the time and place of NLC formation, indirectly through temperature changes. We found that H2O concentration correlates positively with the temperature changes due to the solar cycle at altitudes above about 82 km, where NLCs form. The photolysis effect leads to an anti-correlation of H2O concentration and solar Lyman-α radiation, which gets even more pronounced at altitudes below ∼83 km when NLCs are present. We studied the H2O response to Lyman-α variability for the period 1992 to 2018, including the two most recent solar cycles. The amplitude of Lyman-α variation decreased by about 40 % in the period 2005 to 2018 compared to the preceding solar cycle, resulting in a lower H2O response in the late period. We investigated the effect of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the H2O response throughout the solar cycle by performing model runs with and without increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). The increase of methane and carbon dioxide amplifies the response of water vapour to the solar variability. Applying the geometry of satellite observations, we find a missing response when averaging over altitudes of 80 to 85 km, where H2O has a positive response and a negative response (depending on altitude), which largely cancel each other out. One main finding is that, during NLCs, the solar cycle response of H2O strongly depends on altitude.
- ItemLong-term behavior of the concentration of the minor constituents in the mesosphere-a model study(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2009) Grygalashvyly, M.; Sonnemann, G.R.; Hartogh, P.We investigate the influence the rising concentrations of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide which have occurred since the pre-industrial era, have had on the chemistry of the mesosphere. For this investigation we use our global 3-D-model COMMA-IAP which was designed for the exploration of the MLT-region and in particular the extended mesopause region. Assumptions and approximations for the trends in the Lyman-flux (needed for the water vapor dissociation rate), methane and the water vapor mixing ratio at the hygropause are necessary to accomplish this study. To approximate the solar Lyman-α flux back to the pre-industrial time, we derived a quadratic fit using the sunspot number record which extends back to 1749 and is the only solar proxy available for the Lyman-α flux prior to 1947. We assume that methane increases with a constant growth rate from the pre-industrial era to the present. An unsolved problem for the model calculations consists of how the water vapor mixing ratio at the hygropause should be specified during this period. We assume that the hygropause was dryer during pre-industrial times than the present. As a consequence of methane oxidation, the model simulation indicates that the middle atmosphere has become more humid as a result of the rising methane concentration, but with some dependence on height and with a small time delay of few years. The solar influence on the water vapor mixing ratio is insignificant below about 80 km in summer high latitudes, but becomes increasingly more important above this altitude. The enhanced water vapor concentration increasesthe hydrogen radical concentration and reduces the mesospheric ozone. A second region of stronger ozone decrease is located in the vicinity of the stratopause. Increases in CO2 concentration enhance slightly the concentration of CO in the mesosphere. However, its influence upon the chemistry is small and its main effect is connected with a cooling of the upper atmosphere. The long-term behavior of water vapor is discussed in particular with respect to its impact on the NLC region.
- ItemFootprint-weighted tile approach for a spruce forest and a nearby patchy clearing using the ACASA model(Katlenburg-Lindau [u.a.] : Copernicus, 2018) Gatzsche, Kathrin; Babel, Wolfgang; Falge, Eva; Pyles, Rex David; Paw U., Kyaw Tha; Raabe, Armin; Foken, ThomasThe ACASA (Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm) model, with a higher-order closure for tall vegetation, has already been successfully tested and validated for homogeneous spruce forests. The aim of this paper is to test the model using a footprint-weighted tile approach for a clearing with a heterogeneous structure of the underlying surface. The comparison with flux data shows a good agreement with a footprint-aggregated tile approach of the model. However, the results of a comparison with a tile approach on the basis of the mean land use classification of the clearing is not significantly different. It is assumed that the footprint model is not accurate enough to separate small-scale heterogeneities. All measured fluxes are corrected by forcing the energy balance closure of the test data either by maintaining the measured Bowen ratio or by the attribution of the residual depending on the fractions of sensible and latent heat flux to the buoyancy flux. The comparison with the model, in which the energy balance is closed, shows that the buoyancy correction for Bowen ratios > 1.5 better fits the measured data. For lower Bowen ratios, the correction probably lies between the two methods, but the amount of available data was too small to make a conclusion. With an assumption of similarity between water and carbon dioxide fluxes, no correction of the net ecosystem exchange is necessary for Bowen ratios > 1.5.
- ItemAnalyzing the causes and spatial pattern of the European 2003 carbon flux anomaly using seven models(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2008) Vetter, M.; Churkina, G.; Jung, M.; Reichstein, M.; Zaehle, S.; Bondeau, A.; Chen, Y.; Ciais, P.; Feser, F.; Freibauer, A.; Geyer, R.; Jones, C.; Papale, D.; Tenhunen, J.; Tomelleri, E.; Trusilova, K.; Viovy, N.; Heimann, M.Globally, the year 2003 is associated with one of the largest atmospheric CO2 rises on record. In the same year, Europe experienced an anomalously strong flux of CO2 from the land to the atmosphere associated with an exceptionally dry and hot summer in Western and Central Europe. In this study we analyze the magnitude of this carbon flux anomaly and key driving ecosystem processes using simulations of seven terrestrial ecosystem models of different complexity and types (process-oriented and diagnostic). We address the following questions: (1) how large were deviations in the net European carbon flux in 2003 relative to a short-term baseline (1998–2002) and to longer-term variations in annual fluxes (1980 to 2005), (2) which European regions exhibited the largest changes in carbon fluxes during the growing season 2003, and (3) which ecosystem processes controlled the carbon balance anomaly . In most models the prominence of 2003 anomaly in carbon fluxes declined with lengthening of the reference period from one year to 16 years. The 2003 anomaly for annual net carbon fluxes ranged between 0.35 and –0.63 Pg C for a reference period of one year and between 0.17 and –0.37 Pg C for a reference period of 16 years for the whole Europe. In Western and Central Europe, the anomaly in simulated net ecosystem productivity (NEP) over the growing season in 2003 was outside the 1σ variance bound of the carbon flux anomalies for 1980–2005 in all models. The estimated anomaly in net carbon flux ranged between –42 and –158 Tg C for Western Europe and between 24 and –129 Tg C for Central Europe depending on the model used. All models responded to a dipole pattern of the climate anomaly in 2003. In Western and Central Europe NEP was reduced due to heat and drought. In contrast, lower than normal temperatures and higher air humidity decreased NEP over Northeastern Europe. While models agree on the sign of changes in simulated NEP and gross primary productivity in 2003 over Western and Central Europe, models diverge in the estimates of anomalies in ecosystem respiration. Except for two process models which simulate respiration increase, most models simulated a decrease in ecosystem respiration in 2003. The diagnostic models showed a weaker decrease in ecosystem respiration than the process-oriented models. Based on the multi-model simulations we estimated the total carbon flux anomaly over the 2003 growing season in Europe to range between –0.02 and –0.27 Pg C relative to the net carbon flux in 1998–2002.
- ItemA model-based constraint on CO2 fertilisation(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2013) Holden, P.B.; Edwards, N.R.; Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.We derive a constraint on the strength of CO2 fertilisation of the terrestrial biosphere through a "top-down" approach, calibrating Earth system model parameters constrained by the post-industrial increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration. We derive a probabilistic prediction for the globally averaged strength of CO2 fertilisation in nature, for the period 1850 to 2000 AD, implicitly net of other limiting factors such as nutrient availability. The approach yields an estimate that is independent of CO2 enrichment experiments. To achieve this, an essential requirement was the incorporation of a land use change (LUC) scheme into the GENIE Earth system model. Using output from a 671-member ensemble of transient GENIE simulations, we build an emulator of the change in atmospheric CO2 concentration change since the preindustrial period. We use this emulator to sample the 28-dimensional input parameter space. A Bayesian calibration of the emulator output suggests that the increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) in response to a doubling of CO2 from preindustrial values is very likely (90% confidence) to exceed 20%, with a most likely value of 40–60%. It is important to note that we do not represent all of the possible contributing mechanisms to the terrestrial sink. The missing processes are subsumed into our calibration of CO2 fertilisation, which therefore represents the combined effect of CO2 fertilisation and additional missing processes. If the missing processes are a net sink then our estimate represents an upper bound. We derive calibrated estimates of carbon fluxes that are consistent with existing estimates. The present-day land–atmosphere flux (1990–2000) is estimated at −0.7 GTC yr−1 (likely, 66% confidence, in the range 0.4 to −1.7 GTC yr−1). The present-day ocean–atmosphere flux (1990–2000) is estimated to be −2.3 GTC yr−1 (likely in the range −1.8 to −2.7 GTC yr−1). We estimate cumulative net land emissions over the post-industrial period (land use change emissions net of the CO2 fertilisation and climate sinks) to be 66 GTC, likely to lie in the range 0 to 128 GTC.
- ItemHow the extreme 2019-2020 Australian wildfires affected global circulation and adjustments(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2023) Senf, Fabian; Heinold, Bernd; Kubin, Anne; Müller, Jason; Schrödner, Roland; Tegen, InaWildfires are a significant source of absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere. Extreme fires in particular, such as those during the 2019-2020 Australian wildfire season (Black Summer fires), can have considerable large-scale effects. In this context, the climate impact of extreme wildfires unfolds not only because of the emitted carbon dioxide but also due to smoke aerosol released up to an altitude of 17ĝ€¯km. The overall aerosol effects depend on a variety of factors, such as the amount emitted, the injection height, and the composition of the burned material, and is therefore subject to considerable uncertainty. In the present study, we address the global impact caused by the exceptionally strong and high-reaching smoke emissions from the Australian wildfires using simulations with a global aerosol-climate model. We show that the absorption of solar radiation by the black carbon contained in the emitted smoke led to a shortwave radiative forcing of more than +5ĝ€¯Wm-2 in the southern mid-latitudes of the lower stratosphere. Subsequent adjustment processes in the stratosphere slowed down the diabatically driven meridional circulation, thus redistributing the heating perturbation on a global scale. As a result of these stratospheric adjustments, a positive temperature perturbation developed in both hemispheres, leading to additional longwave radiation emitted back to space. According to the model results, this adjustment occurred in the stratosphere within the first 2 months after the event. At the top of the atmosphere (TOA), the net effective radiative forcing (ERF) averaged over the Southern Hemisphere was initially dominated by the instantaneous positive radiative forcing of about +0.5ĝ€¯Wm-2, for which the positive sign resulted mainly from the presence of clouds above the Southern Ocean. The longwave adjustments led to a compensation of the initially net positive TOA ERF, which is seen in the Southern Hemisphere, the tropics, and the northern mid-latitudes. The simulated changes in the lower stratosphere also affected the upper troposphere through a thermodynamic downward coupling. Subsequently, increased temperatures were also obtained in the upper troposphere, causing a global decrease in relative humidity, cirrus amount, and the ice water path of about 0.2ĝ€¯%. As a result, surface precipitation also decreased by a similar amount, which was accompanied by a weakening of the tropospheric circulation due to the given energetic constraints. In general, it appears that the radiative effects of smoke from single extreme wildfire events can lead to global impacts that affect the interplay of tropospheric and stratospheric budgets in complex ways. This emphasizes that future changes in extreme wildfires need to be included in projections of aerosol radiative forcing.
- ItemSpatial, temporal and source contribution assessments of black carbon over the northern interior of South Africa(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2017) Chiloane, Kgaugelo Euphinia; Beukes, Johan Paul; van Zyl, Pieter Gideon; Maritz, Petra; Vakkari, Ville; Josipovic, Miroslav; Venter, Andrew Derick; Jaars, Kerneels; Tiitta, Petri; Kulmala, Markku; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Liousse, Catherine; Mkhatshwa, Gabisile Vuyisile; Ramandh, Avishkar; Laakso, LauriAfter carbon dioxide (CO2), aerosol black carbon (BC) is considered to be the second most important contributor to global warming. This paper presents equivalent black carbon (eBC) (derived from an optical absorption method) data collected from three sites in the interior of South Africa where continuous measurements were conducted, i.e. Elandsfontein, Welgegund and Marikana, as well elemental carbon (EC) (determined by evolved carbon method) data at five sites where samples were collected once a month on a filter and analysed offline, i.e. Louis Trichardt, Skukuza, Vaal Triangle, Amersfoort and Botsalano. Analyses of eBC and EC spatial mass concentration patterns across the eight sites indicate that the mass concentrations in the South African interior are in general higher than what has been reported for the developed world and that different sources are likely to influence different sites. The mean eBC or EC mass concentrations for the background sites (Welgegund, Louis Trichardt, Skukuza, Botsalano) and sites influenced by industrial activities and/or nearby settlements (Elandsfontein, Marikana, Vaal Triangle and Amersfoort) ranged between 0.7 and 1.1, and 1.3 and 1.4 μg m-3, respectively. Similar seasonal patterns were observed at all three sites where continuous measurement data were collected (Elandsfontein, Marikana and Welgegund), with the highest eBC mass concentrations measured from June to October, indicating contributions from household combustion in the cold winter months (June-August), as well as savannah and grassland fires during the dry season (May to mid-October). Diurnal patterns of eBC at Elandsfontein, Marikana and Welgegund indicated maximum concentrations in the early mornings and late evenings, and minima during daytime. From the patterns it could be deduced that for Marikana and Welgegund, household combustion, as well as savannah and grassland fires, were the most significant sources, respectively. Possible contributing sources were explored in greater detail for Elandsfontein, with five main sources being identified as coal-fired power stations, pyrometallurgical smelters, traffic, household combustion, as well as savannah and grassland fires. Industries on the Mpumalanga Highveld are often blamed for all forms of pollution, due to the NO2 hotspot over this area that is attributed to NOx emissions from industries and vehicle emissions from the Johannesburg. Pretoria megacity. However, a comparison of source strengths indicated that household combustion as well as savannah and grassland fires were the most significant sources of eBC, particularly during winter and spring months, while coal-fired power stations, pyrometallurgical smelters and traffic contribute to eBC mass concentration levels year round.
- ItemPollution events observed during CARIBIC flights in the upper troposphere between South China and the Philippines(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2010) Lai, S.C.; Baker, A.K.; Schuck, T.J.; van Velthoven, P.; Oram, D.E.; Zahn, A.; Hermann, M.; Weigelt, A.; Slemr, F.; Brenninkmeijer, C.A.M.; Ziereis, H.A strong pollution episode in the upper troposphere between South China and the Philippines was observed during CARIBIC flights in April 2007. Five pollution events were observed, where enhancements in aerosol and trace gas concentrations including CO, CO2, CH4, non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and halocarbons were observed along the flight tracks during four sequential flights. The importance of the contribution of biomass/biofuel burning was investigated using chemical tracers, emission factor analysis, back-trajectory analysis and satellite images. The Indochinese peninsula was identified as the probable source region of biomass/biofuel burning. However, enhancements in the urban/industrial tracer C2Cl4 during the events also indicate a substantial contribution from urban anthropogenic emissions. An estimation of the contribution of fossil fuel versus biomass/biofuel to the CO enhancement was made, indicating a biomass/biofuel burning contribution of ~54 to ~92% of the observed CO enhancements. Biomass/biofuel burning was found to be the most important source category during the sampling period.
- ItemCarbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: A multi-model analysis(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2013) Joos, F.; Roth, R.; Fuglestvedt, J.S.; Peters, G.P.; Enting, I.G.; von Bloh, W.; Brovkin, V.; Burke, E.J.; Eby, M.; Edwards, N.R.; Friedrich, T.; Frölicher, T.L.; Halloran, P.R.; Holden, P.B.; Jones, C.; Kleinen, T.; Mackenzie, F.T.; Matsumoto, K.; Meinshausen, M.; Plattner, G.-K.; Reisinger, A.; Segschneider, J.; Shaffer, G.; Steinacher, M.; Strassmann, K.; Tanaka, K.; Timmermann, A.; Weaver, A.J.The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.
- ItemOn the effect of orbital forcing on mid-Pliocene climate, vegetation and ice sheets(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2013) Willeit, M.; Ganopolski, A.; Feulner, G.We present results from modelling of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3–3 million years ago) using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 analysing the effect of changes in boundary conditions as well as of orbital forcing on climate. First we performed equilibrium experiments following the PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) protocol with a CO2 concentration of 405 ppm, reconstructed mid-Pliocene orography and vegetation and a present-day orbital configuration. Simulated global Pliocene warming is about 2.5 °C, fully consistent with results of atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations performed for the same modelling setup. A factor separation analysis attributes 1.5 °C warming to CO2, 0.3 °C to orography, 0.2 °C to ice sheets and 0.4 °C to vegetation. Transient simulations for the entire mid-Pliocene warm period with time-dependent orbital forcing as well as interactive ice sheets and vegetation give a global warming varying within the range 1.9–2.8 °C. Ice sheet and vegetation feedbacks in synergy act as amplifiers of the orbital forcing, transforming seasonal insolation variations into an annual mean temperature signal. The effect of orbital forcing is more significant at high latitudes, especially during boreal summer, when the warming over land varies in the wide range from 0 to 10 °C. The modelled ice-sheet extent and vegetation distribution also show significant temporal variations. Modelled and reconstructed data for Northern Hemisphere sea-surface temperatures and vegetation distribution show the best agreement if the reconstructions are assumed to be representative for the warmest periods during the orbital cycles. This suggests that low-resolution Pliocene palaeoclimate reconstructions can reflect not only the impact of increased CO2 concentrations and topography changes but also the effect of orbital forcing. Therefore, the climate (Earth system) sensitivity estimates from Pliocene reconstructions which do not account for the effect of orbital forcing can be biased toward high values.