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- ItemConsistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Schauberger, B.; Archontoulis, S.; Arneth, A.; Balkovic, J.; Ciais, P.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Folberth, C.; Khabarov, N.; Müller, C.; Pugh, T.A.M.; Rolinski, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Schmid, E.; Wang, X.; Schlenker, W.; Frieler, K.High temperatures are detrimental to crop yields and could lead to global warming-driven reductions in agricultural productivity. To assess future threats, the majority of studies used process-based crop models, but their ability to represent effects of high temperature has been questioned. Here we show that an ensemble of nine crop models reproduces the observed average temperature responses of US maize, soybean and wheat yields. Each day >30 °C diminishes maize and soybean yields by up to 6% under rainfed conditions. Declines observed in irrigated areas, or simulated assuming full irrigation, are weak. This supports the hypothesis that water stress induced by high temperatures causes the decline. For wheat a negative response to high temperature is neither observed nor simulated under historical conditions, since critical temperatures are rarely exceeded during the growing season. In the future, yields are modelled to decline for all three crops at temperatures >30 °C. Elevated CO 2 can only weakly reduce these yield losses, in contrast to irrigation.
- ItemComparing contact and immersion freezing from continuous flow diffusion chambers(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Nagare, Baban; Marcolli, Claudia; Welti, André; Stetzer, Olaf; Lohmann, UlrikeIce nucleating particles (INPs) in the atmosphere are responsible for glaciating cloud droplets between 237 and 273 K. Different mechanisms of heterogeneous ice nucleation can compete under mixed-phase cloud conditions. Contact freezing is considered relevant because higher ice nucleation temperatures than for immersion freezing for the same INPs were observed. It has limitations because its efficiency depends on the number of collisions between cloud droplets and INPs. To date, direct comparisons of contact and immersion freezing with the same INP, for similar residence times and concentrations, are lacking. This study compares immersion and contact freezing efficiencies of three different INPs. The contact freezing data were obtained with the ETH CoLlision Ice Nucleation CHamber (CLINCH) using 80 µm diameter droplets, which can interact with INPs for residence times of 2 and 4 s in the chamber. The contact freezing efficiency was calculated by estimating the number of collisions between droplets and particles. Theoretical formulations of collision efficiencies gave too high freezing efficiencies for all investigated INPs, namely AgI particles with 200 nm electrical mobility diameter, 400 and 800 nm diameter Arizona Test Dust (ATD) and kaolinite particles. Comparison of freezing efficiencies by contact and immersion freezing is therefore limited by the accuracy of collision efficiencies. The concentration of particles was 1000 cm−3 for ATD and kaolinite and 500, 1000, 2000 and 5000 cm−3 for AgI. For concentrations < 5000 cm−3, the droplets collect only one particle on average during their time in the chamber. For ATD and kaolinite particles, contact freezing efficiencies at 2 s residence time were smaller than at 4 s, which is in disagreement with a collisional contact freezing process but in accordance with immersion freezing or adhesion freezing. With “adhesion freezing”, we refer to a contact nucleation process that is enhanced compared to immersion freezing due to the position of the INP on the droplet, and we discriminate it from collisional contact freezing, which assumes an enhancement due to the collision of the particle with the droplet. For best comparison with contact freezing results, immersion freezing experiments of the same INPs were performed with the continuous flow diffusion chamber Immersion Mode Cooling chAmber–Zurich Ice Nucleation Chamber (IMCA–ZINC) for a 3 s residence time. In IMCA–ZINC, each INP is activated into a droplet in IMCA and provides its surface for ice nucleation in the ZINC chamber. The comparison of contact and immersion freezing results did not confirm a general enhancement of freezing efficiency for contact compared with immersion freezing experiments. For AgI particles the onset of heterogeneous freezing in CLINCH was even shifted to lower temperatures compared with IMCA–ZINC. For ATD, freezing efficiencies for contact and immersion freezing experiments were similar. For kaolinite particles, contact freezing became detectable at higher temperatures than immersion freezing. Using contact angle information between water and the INP, it is discussed how the position of the INP in or on the droplets may influence its ice nucleation activity.
- ItemGlobal Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley-Blackwell, 2019) Minoli, Sara; Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Ruane, Alex C.; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Zabel, Florian; Dury, Marie; Folberth, Christian; François, Louis; Hank, Tobias; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Liu, Wenfeng; Olin, Stefan; Pugh, Thomas A.M.Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology, growth, and evapotranspiration. However, future projections typically do not consider the effects of agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops under increasing temperature up to 6 K, accounting for model uncertainty. We find that without adaptation, the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten the growing period and to reduce grain yields and production. We then test the potential of two agronomic measures to combat warming-induced yield reduction: (i) use of cultivars with adjusted phenology to regain the reference growing period duration and (ii) conversion of rainfed systems to irrigated ones in order to alleviate the negative temperature effects that are mediated by crop evapotranspiration. We find that cultivar adaptation can fully compensate global production losses up to 2 K of temperature increase, with larger potentials in continental and temperate regions. Irrigation could also compensate production losses, but its potential is highest in arid regions, where irrigation expansion would be constrained by water scarcity. Moreover, we discuss that irrigation is not a true adaptation measure but rather an intensification strategy, as it equally increases production under any temperature level. In the tropics, even when introducing both adapted cultivars and irrigation, crop production declines already at moderate warming, making adaptation particularly challenging in these areas. ©2019. The Authors.