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- ItemConsistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Schauberger, B.; Archontoulis, S.; Arneth, A.; Balkovic, J.; Ciais, P.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Folberth, C.; Khabarov, N.; Müller, C.; Pugh, T.A.M.; Rolinski, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Schmid, E.; Wang, X.; Schlenker, W.; Frieler, K.High temperatures are detrimental to crop yields and could lead to global warming-driven reductions in agricultural productivity. To assess future threats, the majority of studies used process-based crop models, but their ability to represent effects of high temperature has been questioned. Here we show that an ensemble of nine crop models reproduces the observed average temperature responses of US maize, soybean and wheat yields. Each day >30 °C diminishes maize and soybean yields by up to 6% under rainfed conditions. Declines observed in irrigated areas, or simulated assuming full irrigation, are weak. This supports the hypothesis that water stress induced by high temperatures causes the decline. For wheat a negative response to high temperature is neither observed nor simulated under historical conditions, since critical temperatures are rarely exceeded during the growing season. In the future, yields are modelled to decline for all three crops at temperatures >30 °C. Elevated CO 2 can only weakly reduce these yield losses, in contrast to irrigation.
- ItemThree-dimensional monitoring of soil water content in a maize field using Electrical Resistivity Tomography(Munich : EGU, 2013) Beff, L.; Günther, T.; Vandoorne, B.; Couvreur, V.; Javaux, M.A good understanding of the soil water content (SWC) distribution at the field scale is essential to improve the management of water, soil and crops. Recent studies proved that Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) opens interesting perspectives in the determination of the SWC distribution in 3 dimensions (3-D). This study was conducted (i) to check and validate how ERT is able to monitor SWC distribution in a maize field during the late growing season; and (ii) to investigate how maize plants and rainfall affect the dynamics of SWC distribution. Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) measurements were used to validate ERT-inverted SWC values. Evolution of water mass balance was also calculated to check whether ERT was capable of giving a reliable estimate of soil water stock evolution. It is observed that ERT was able to give the same average SWC as TDR (R2 = 0.98). In addition, ERT gives better estimates of the water stock than TDR thanks to its higher spatial resolution. The high resolution of ERT measurements also allows for the discrimination of SWC heterogeneities. The SWC distribution showed that alternation of maize rows and inter-rows was the main influencing factor of the SWC distribution. The drying patterns were linked to the root profiles, with drier zones under the maize rows. During short periods, with negligible rainfall, the SWC decrease took place mainly in the two upper soil horizons and in the inter-row area. In contrast, rainfall increased the SWC mostly under the maize rows and in the upper soil layer. Nevertheless, the total amount of rainfall during the growing season was not sufficient to modify the SWC patterns induced by the maize rows. During the experimental time, there was hardly any SWC redistribution from maize rows to inter-rows. Yet, lateral redistribution from inter-rows to maize rows induced by potential gradient generates SWC decrease in the inter-row area and in the deeper soil horizons.
- ItemYield trends, variability and stagnation analysis of major crops in France over more than a century([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2018) Schauberger, Bernhard; Ben-Ari, Tamara; Makowski, David; Kato, Tomomichi; Kato, Hiromi; Ciais, PhilippeFrance is a major crop producer, with a production share of approx. 20% within the European Union. Yet, a discussion has recently started whether French yields are stagnating. While for wheat previous results are unanimously pointing to recent stagnation, there is contradictory evidence for maize and few to no results for other crops. Here we analyse a data set with more than 120,000 yield observations from 1900 to 2016 for ten crops (barley, durum and soft wheat, maize, oats, potatoes, rapeseed, sugar beet, sunflower and wine) in the 96 mainland French départements (NUTS3 administrative division). We dissect the evolution of yield trends over time and space, analyse yield variation and evaluate whether growth of yields has stalled in recent years. Yields have, on average across crops, multiplied four-fold over the course of the 20th century. While absolute yield variability has increased, the variation relative to the mean has halved – mean yields have increased faster than their variability. But growth of yields has stagnated since the 1990’s for winter wheat, barley, oats, durum wheat, sunflower and wine on at least 25% of their areas. Reaching yield potentials is unlikely as a cause for stagnation. Maize, in contrast, shows no evidence for stagnation.