Search Results

Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
  • Item
    Lidar Observations of Stratospheric Gravity Waves From 2011 to 2015 at McMurdo (77.84°S, 166.69°E), Antarctica: 2. Potential Energy Densities, Lognormal Distributions, and Seasonal Variations
    (Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2018-8-6) Chu, Xinzhao; Zhao, Jian; Lu, Xian; Harvey, V. Lynn; Jones, R. Michael; Becker, Erich; Chen, Cao; Fong, Weichun; Yu, Zhibin; Roberts, Brendan R.; Dörnbrack, Andreas
    Five years of Fe Boltzmann lidar's Rayleigh temperature data from 2011 to 2015 at McMurdo are used to characterize gravity wave potential energy mass density (Epm), potential energy volume density (Epv), vertical wave number spectra, and static stability N² in the stratosphere 30–50 km. Epm (Epv) profiles increase (decrease) with altitude, and the scale heights of Epv indicate stronger wave dissipation in winter than in summer. Altitude mean (Formula presented.) and (Formula presented.) obey lognormal distributions and possess narrowly clustered small values in summer but widely spread large values in winter. (Formula presented.) and (Formula presented.) vary significantly from observation to observation but exhibit repeated seasonal patterns with summer minima and winter maxima. The winter maxima in 2012 and 2015 are higher than in other years, indicating interannual variations. Altitude mean (Formula presented.) varies by ~30–40% from the midwinter maxima to minima around October and exhibits a nearly bimodal distribution. Monthly mean vertical wave number power spectral density for vertical wavelengths of 5–20 km increases from summer to winter. Using Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 data, we find that large values of (Formula presented.) during wintertime occur when McMurdo is well inside the polar vortex. Monthly mean (Formula presented.) are anticorrelated with wind rotation angles but positively correlated with wind speeds at 3 and 30 km. Corresponding correlation coefficients are −0.62, +0.87, and +0.80, respectively. Results indicate that the summer-winter asymmetry of (Formula presented.) is mainly caused by critical level filtering that dissipates most gravity waves in summer. (Formula presented.) variations in winter are mainly due to variations of gravity wave generation in the troposphere and stratosphere and Doppler shifting by the mean stratospheric winds.
  • Item
    Middle- and High-Latitude Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Mean Winds and Tides in Response to Strong Polar-Night Jet Oscillations
    (Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2019) Conte, J. Federico; Chau, Jorge L.; Peters, Dieter H.W.
    The dynamical behavior of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region during strongly disturbed wintertime conditions commonly known as polar-night jet oscillations (PJOs) is described in detail and compared to other wintertime conditions. For this purpose, wind measurements provided by two specular meteor radars located at Andenes (69°N, 16°E) and Juliusruh (54°N, 13°E) are used to estimate horizontal mean winds and tides as an observational basis. Winds and tidal main features are analyzed and compared for three different cases: major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) with (a) strong PJO event, (b) non-PJO event, and (c) no major SSWs. We show that the distinction into strong PJOs, non-PJOs, and winters with no major SSWs is better suited to identify differences in the behavior of the mean winds and tides during the boreal winter. To assess the impact of the stratospheric disturbed conditions on the MLT region, we investigate the 30-year nudged simulation by the Extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. Analysis of geopotential height disturbances suggests that changes in the location of the polar vortex at mesospheric heights are responsible for the jets observed in the MLT mean winds during strong PJOs, which in turn influence the evolution of semidiurnal tides by increasing or decreasing their amplitudes depending on the tidal component. © 2019. The Authors.
  • Item
    Mesospheric semidiurnal tides and near-12 h waves through jointly analyzing observations of five specular meteor radars from three longitudinal sectors at boreal midlatitudes
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2019) He, M.; Chau, J.L.

    In the last decades, mesospheric tides have been intensively investigated with observations from both ground-based radars and satellites. Single-site radar observations provide continuous measurements at fixed locations without horizontal information, whereas single-spacecraft missions typically provide global coverage with limited temporal coverage at a given location. In this work, by combining 8 years (2009-2016) of mesospheric winds collected by five specular meteor radars from three different longitudinal sectors at boreal midlatitudes (49±8.5ĝ N), we develop an approach to investigate the most intense global-scale oscillation, namely at the period TCombining double low line12±0.5 h. Six waves are resolved: The semidiurnal westward-Traveling tidal modes with zonal wave numbers 1, 2, and 3 (SW1, SW2, SW3), the lunar semidiurnal tide M2, and the upper and lower sidebands (USB and LSB) of the 16 d wave nonlinear modulation on SW2. The temporal variations of the waves are studied statistically with a special focus on their responses to sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs) and on their climatological seasonal variations. In response to SSWs, USB, LSB, and M2 enhance, while SW2 decreases. However, SW1 and SW3 do not respond noticeably to SSWs, contrary to the broadly reported enhancements in the literature. The USB, LSB, and SW2 responses could be explained in terms of energy exchange through the nonlinear modulation, while LSB and USB might previously have been misinterpreted as SW1 and SW3, respectively. Besides, we find that LSB and M2 enhancements depend on the SSW classification with respect to the associated split or displacement of the polar vortex. In the case of seasonal variations, our results are qualitatively consistent with previous studies and show a moderate correlation with an empirical tidal model derived from satellite observations.

    © Author(s) 2019.
  • Item
    S2S reboot: An argument for greater inclusion of machine learning in subseasonal to seasonal forecasts
    (Malden, MA : Wiley-Blackwell, 2018) Cohen, Judah; Coumou, Dim; Hwang, Jessica; Mackey, Lester; Orenstein, Paulo; Totz, Sonja; Tziperman, Eli
    The discipline of seasonal climate prediction began as an exercise in simple statistical techniques. However, today the large government forecast centers almost exclusively rely on complex fully coupled dynamical forecast systems for their subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictions while statistical techniques are mostly neglected and those techniques still in use have not been updated in decades. In this Opinion Article, we argue that new statistical techniques mostly developed outside the field of climate science, collectively referred to as machine learning, can be adopted by climate forecasters to increase the accuracy of S2S predictions. We present an example of where unsupervised learning demonstrates higher accuracy in a seasonal prediction than the state-of-the-art dynamical systems. We also summarize some relevant machine learning methods that are most applicable to climate prediction. Finally, we show by comparing real-time dynamical model forecasts with observations from winter 2017/2018 that dynamical model forecasts are almost entirely insensitive to polar vortex (PV) variability and the impact on sensible weather. Instead, statistical forecasts more accurately predicted the resultant sensible weather from a mid-winter PV disruption than the dynamical forecasts. The important implication from the poor dynamical forecasts is that if Arctic change influences mid-latitude weather through PV variability, then the ability of dynamical models to demonstrate the existence of such a pathway is compromised. We conclude by suggesting that S2S prediction will be most beneficial to the public by incorporating mixed or a hybrid of dynamical forecasts and updated statistical techniques such as machine learning.
  • Item
    Very low ozone episodes due to polar vortex displacement
    (Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 2000) James, P.M.; Peters, D.; Waugh, D.W.
    The large-scale ozone distribution over the northern hemisphere undergoes strong fluctuationseach winter on timescales of up to a few weeks. This is closely linked to changes in the stratosphericpolar vortex, whose shape, intensity and location vary with time. Elliptical diagnosticparameters provide an empirical description of the daily character of the polar vortex. Theseparameters are used as an objective measure to define two characteristic wintertime vortexdisplacements, towards northern Europe and Canada, respectively. The large-scale structuresin both the stratosphere and troposphere and the 3D ozone structures are determined for bothvortex displacement scenarios. A linear ozone transport model shows that the contribution ofhorizontal ozone advection dominates locally in the middle stratosphere. Nevertheless, thelargest contribution is due to vertical advection around the ozone layer maximum. The findingsare in agreement with an EOF analysis which reveals significant general modes of ozone variabilitylinked to polar vortex displacement and to phase-shifted large-scale tropospheric waves.When baroclinic waves travel through the regions of vortex-related ozone reduction, the combinedeffect is to produce transient synoptic-scale areas of exceptionally low ozone; namelydynamically induced strong ozone mini-holes.