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- ItemFormation and growth of nucleated particles into cloud condensation nuclei: Model-measurement comparison(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2013) Westervelt, D.M.; Pierce, J.R.; Riipinen, I.; Trivitayanurak, W.; Hamed, A.; Kulmala, M.; Laaksonen, A.; Decesari, S.; Adams, P.J.Aerosol nucleation occurs frequently in the atmosphere and is an important source of particle number. Observations suggest that nucleated particles are capable of growing to sufficiently large sizes that they act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), but some global models have reported that CCN concentrations are only modestly sensitive to large changes in nucleation rates. Here we present a novel approach for using long-term size distribution observations to evaluate a global aerosol model's ability to predict formation rates of CCN from nucleation and growth events. We derive from observations at five locations nucleation-relevant metrics such as nucleation rate of particles at diameter of 3 nm (J3), diameter growth rate (GR), particle survival probability (SP), condensation and coagulation sinks, and CCN formation rate (J100). These quantities are also derived for a global microphysical model, GEOS-Chem-TOMAS, and compared to the observations on a daily basis. Using GEOS-Chem-TOMAS, we simulate nucleation events predicted by ternary (with a 10−5 tuning factor) or activation nucleation over one year and find that the model slightly understates the observed annual-average CCN formation mostly due to bias in the nucleation rate predictions, but by no more than 50% in the ternary simulations. At the two locations expected to be most impacted by large-scale regional nucleation, Hyytiälä and San Pietro Capofiume, predicted annual-average CCN formation rates are within 34 and 2% of the observations, respectively. Model-predicted annual-average growth rates are within 25% across all sites but also show a slight tendency to underestimate the observations, at least in the ternary nucleation simulations. On days that the growing nucleation mode reaches 100 nm, median single-day survival probabilities to 100 nm for the model and measurements range from less than 1–6% across the five locations we considered; however, this does not include particles that may eventually grow to 100 nm after the first day. This detailed exploration of new particle formation and growth dynamics adds support to the use of global models as tools for assessing the contribution of microphysical processes such as nucleation to the total number and CCN budget.
- ItemA complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Boers, Niklas; Goswami, Bedartha; Ghil, MichaelAccurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results of proxy record analysis. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to represent layer-counted proxy records – such as ice cores, sediments, corals, or tree rings – as sequences of probability distributions on absolute, error-free time axes. The method accounts for both proxy measurement errors and uncertainties arising from layer-counting-based dating of the records. An application to oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record reveals that the counting errors, although seemingly small, lead to substantial uncertainties in the final representation of the oxygen isotope ratios. In particular, for the older parts of the NGRIP record, our results show that the total uncertainty originating from dating errors has been seriously underestimated. Our method is next applied to deriving the overall uncertainties of the Suigetsu radiocarbon comparison curve, which was recently obtained from varved sediment cores at Lake Suigetsu, Japan. This curve provides the only terrestrial radiocarbon comparison for the time interval 12.5–52.8 kyr BP. The uncertainties derived here can be readily employed to obtain complete error estimates for arbitrary radiometrically dated proxy records of this recent part of the last glacial interval.
- ItemComparison of storm damage functions and their performance(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2015) Prahl, B.F.; Rybski, D.; Burghoff, O.; Kropp, J.P.
- ItemPotential effects of climate change on inundation patterns in the Amazon Basin(Chichester : John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2013) Langerwisch, F.; Rost, S.; Gerten, D.; Poulter, B.; Rammig, A.; Cramer, W.Floodplain forests, namely the Várzea and Igapó, cover an area of more than 97 000 km2. A key factor for their function and diversity is annual flooding. Increasing air temperature and higher precipitation variability caused by climate change are expected to shift the flooding regime during this century, and thereby impact floodplain ecosystems, their biodiversity and riverine ecosystem services. To assess the effects of climate change on the flooding regime, we use the Dynamic Global Vegetation and Hydrology Model LPJmL, enhanced by a scheme that realistically simulates monthly flooded area. Simulation results of discharge and inundation under contemporary conditions compare well against site-level measurements and observations. The changes of calculated inundation duration and area under climate change projections from 24 IPCC AR4 climate models differ regionally towards the end of the 21st century. In all, 70% of the 24 climate projections agree on an increase of flooded area in about one third of the basin. Inundation duration increases dramatically by on average three months in western and around one month in eastern Amazonia. The time of high- and low-water peak shifts by up to three months. Additionally, we find a decrease in the number of extremely dry years and in the probability of the occurrence of three consecutive extremely dry years. The total number of extremely wet years does not change drastically but the probability of three consecutive extremely wet years decreases by up to 30% in the east and increases by up to 25% in the west. These changes implicate significant shifts in regional vegetation and climate, and will dramatically alter carbon and water cycles.
- ItemLong-term changes in the north-south asymmetry of solar activity: A nonlinear dynamics characterization using visibility graphs(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2014) Zou, Y.; Donner, R.V.; Marwan, N.; Small, M.; Kurths, J.Solar activity is characterized by complex dynamics superimposed onto an almost periodic, approximately 11-year cycle. One of its main features is the presence of a marked, time-varying hemispheric asymmetry, the deeper reasons for which have not yet been completely uncovered. Traditionally, this asymmetry has been studied by considering amplitude and phase differences. Here, we use visibility graphs, a novel tool of nonlinear time series analysis, to obtain complementary information on hemispheric asymmetries in dynamical properties. Our analysis provides deep insights into the potential and limitations of this method, revealing a complex interplay between factors relating to statistical and dynamical properties, i.e., effects due to the probability distribution and the regularity of observed fluctuations. We demonstrate that temporal changes in the hemispheric predominance of the graph properties lag those directly associated with the total hemispheric sunspot areas. Our findings open a new dynamical perspective on studying the north-south sunspot asymmetry, which is to be further explored in future work.
- ItemSubmicrometer aerosol particle distributions in the upper troposphere over the mid-latitude North Atlantic - Results from the third route of 'CARIBIC'(Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 2017) Hermann, M.; Brenninkmeijer, C.A.M.; Slemr, F.; Heintzenberg, J.; Martinsson, B.G.; Schlager, H.; Van Velthoven, P.F.J.; Wiedensohler, A.; Zahn, A.; Ziereis, H.Particle number and mass concentrations of submicrometer aerosol particles were determined for the upper troposphere over the mid-latitude North Atlantic within the Civil Aircraft for Regular Investigation of the Atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container project (CARIBIC, http://www.caribic-atmospheric.com). Between May 2001 and April 2002, 22 flights from Germany to the Caribbean were conducted using an automated measurement container on a B767 passenger aircraft. Spatial and seasonal probability distributions for ultrafine and Aitken mode particles as well as mass concentrations of particulate sulphur in 8–12 km altitude are presented. High particle number concentrations (mostly 2500–15 000 particles cm-3 STP) are particularly found in summer over the western North Atlantic Ocean close to the North American continent. The distributions together with an analysis of particle source processes show that deep vertical transport is the dominant process leading to most of the events with high particle number concentrations (8000 particles cm-3 STP) for ultrafine particles as well as for Aitken mode particles. This study emphasizes the importance of deep vertical transport and cloud processing for the concentration of aerosol particles in the upper troposphere.
- ItemAtmospheric new particle formation at Utö, Baltic Sea 2003-2005(Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 2017) Hyvärinen, A.-P.; Komppula, M.; Engler, C.; Kivekäs, N.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Dal Maso, M.; Viisanen, Y.; Lihavainen, H.Nearly 3 yr (March 2003–December 2005) of continuous particle number size distribution measurements have been conducted at the island of Ut¨o in the Baltic Sea. The measured particle size range was from 7 to 530 nm. During the measurement period, a total of 103 regional new-particle formation events were observed. The characteristics of the nucleation events at Ut¨o were similar to those reported in the literature in other Nordic sites, though measured condensation sinks were rather high (geometric mean of 3.8 × 10−3 s−1) during event days. Clear evidence was found that new particles nucleate regionally near Ut¨o, rather than are transported from greater distances. However, the Baltic Sea seems to have an inhibiting effect on new-particle formation. The boreal forest areas in the continental Finland were found to have an enhancing effect on the nucleation probability in Ut¨o, suggesting that at least some of the precursor gases for nucleation and/or condensational growth of particles originate from these forests. In addition to regional new-particle formation events, a total of 94 local events were observed in Ut¨o. These are short-lived events with a small footprint area, and can at least partly be tracked down to the emissions of ship traffic operating at Ut¨o.