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Yield trends, variability and stagnation analysis of major crops in France over more than a century

2018, Schauberger, Bernhard, Ben-Ari, Tamara, Makowski, David, Kato, Tomomichi, Kato, Hiromi, Ciais, Philippe

France is a major crop producer, with a production share of approx. 20% within the European Union. Yet, a discussion has recently started whether French yields are stagnating. While for wheat previous results are unanimously pointing to recent stagnation, there is contradictory evidence for maize and few to no results for other crops. Here we analyse a data set with more than 120,000 yield observations from 1900 to 2016 for ten crops (barley, durum and soft wheat, maize, oats, potatoes, rapeseed, sugar beet, sunflower and wine) in the 96 mainland French départements (NUTS3 administrative division). We dissect the evolution of yield trends over time and space, analyse yield variation and evaluate whether growth of yields has stalled in recent years. Yields have, on average across crops, multiplied four-fold over the course of the 20th century. While absolute yield variability has increased, the variation relative to the mean has halved – mean yields have increased faster than their variability. But growth of yields has stagnated since the 1990’s for winter wheat, barley, oats, durum wheat, sunflower and wine on at least 25% of their areas. Reaching yield potentials is unlikely as a cause for stagnation. Maize, in contrast, shows no evidence for stagnation.

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Novel insights on new particle formation derived from a pan-european observing system

2018, Dall’Osto, M., Beddows, D.C.S., Asmi, A., Poulain, L., Hao, L., Freney, E., Allan, J.D., Canagaratna, M., Crippa, M., Bianchi, F., de Leeuw, G., Eriksson, A., Swietlicki, E., Hansson, H.C., Henzing, J.S., Granier, C., Zemankova, K., Laj, P., Onasch, T., Prevot, A., Putaud, J. P., Sellegri, K., Vidal, M., Virtanen, A., Simo, R., Worsnop, D., O’Dowd, C., Kulmala, M., Harrison, Roy M.

The formation of new atmospheric particles involves an initial step forming stable clusters less than a nanometre in size (<~1 nm), followed by growth into quasi-stable aerosol particles a few nanometres (~1-10 nm) and larger (>~10 nm). Although at times, the same species can be responsible for both processes, it is thought that more generally each step comprises differing chemical contributors. Here, we present a novel analysis of measurements from a unique multi-station ground-based observing system which reveals new insights into continental-scale patterns associated with new particle formation. Statistical cluster analysis of this unique 2-year multi-station dataset comprising size distribution and chemical composition reveals that across Europe, there are different major seasonal trends depending on geographical location, concomitant with diversity in nucleating species while it seems that the growth phase is dominated by organic aerosol formation. The diversity and seasonality of these events requires an advanced observing system to elucidate the key processes and species driving particle formation, along with detecting continental scale changes in aerosol formation into the future.