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- ItemEstimation of hourly near surface air temperature across Israel using an ensemble model(Basel : MDPI, 2020) Zhou, Bin; Erell, Evyatar; Hough, Ian; Shtein, Alexandra; Just, Allan C.; Novack, Victor; Rosenblatt, Jonathan; Kloog, ItaiMapping of near-surface air temperature (Ta) at high spatio-temporal resolution is essential for unbiased assessment of human health exposure to temperature extremes, not least given the observed trend of urbanization and global climate change. Data constraints have led previous studies to focus merely on daily Ta metrics, rather than hourly ones, making them insufficient for intra-day assessment of health exposure. In this study, we present a three-stage machine learning-based ensemble model to estimate hourly Ta at a high spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km2, incorporating remotely sensed surface skin temperature (Ts) from geostationary satellites, reanalysis synoptic variables, and observations from weather stations, as well as auxiliary geospatial variables, which account for spatio-temporal variability of Ta. The Stage 1 model gap-fills hourly Ts at 4 × 4 km2 from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI), which are subsequently fed into the Stage 2 model to estimate hourly Ta at the same spatio-temporal resolution. The Stage 3 model downscales the residuals between estimated and measured Ta to a grid of 1 × 1 km2, taking into account additionally the monthly diurnal pattern of Ts derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. In each stage, the ensemble model synergizes estimates from the constituent base learners—random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—by applying a geographically weighted generalized additive model (GAM), which allows the weights of results from individual models to vary over space and time. Demonstrated for Israel for the period 2004–2017, the proposed ensemble model outperformed each of the two base learners. It also attained excellent five-fold cross-validated performance, with overall root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.8 and 0.9 °C, mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.6 and 0.7 °C, and R2 of 0.95 and 0.98 in Stage 1 and Stage 2, respectively. The Stage 3 model for downscaling Ta residuals to 1 km MODIS grids achieved overall RMSE of 0.3 °C, MAE of 0.5 °C, and R2 of 0.63. The generated hourly 1 × 1 km2 Ta thus serves as a foundation for monitoring and assessing human health exposure to temperature extremes at a larger geographical scale, helping to further minimize exposure misclassification in epidemiological studies.
- ItemModification of local urban aerosol properties by long-range transport of biomass burning aerosol(Basel : MDPI, 2018) Stachlewska, Iwona S.; Samson, Mateusz; Zawadzka, Olga; Harenda, Kamila M.; Janicka, Lucja; Poczta, Patryk; Szczepanik, Dominika; Heese, Birgit; Wang, Dongxiang; Borek, Karolina; Tetoni, Eleni; Proestakis, Emmanouil; Siomos, Nikolaos; Nemuc, Anca; Chojnicki, Bogdan H.; Markowicz, Krzysztof M.; Pietruczuk, Aleksander; Szkop, Artur; Althausen, Dietrich; Stebel, Kerstin; Schuettemeyer, Dirk; Zehner, ClausDuring August 2016, a quasi-stationary high-pressure system spreading over Central and North-Eastern Europe, caused weather conditions that allowed for 24/7 observations of aerosol optical properties by using a complex multi-wavelength PollyXT lidar system with Raman, polarization and water vapour capabilities, based at the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET network) urban site in Warsaw, Poland. During 24–30 August 2016, the lidar-derived products (boundary layer height, aerosol optical depth, Ångström exponent, lidar ratio, depolarization ratio) were analysed in terms of air mass transport (HYSPLIT model), aerosol load (CAMS data) and type (NAAPS model) and confronted with active and passive remote sensing at the ground level (PolandAOD, AERONET, WIOS-AQ networks) and aboard satellites (SEVIRI, MODIS, CATS sensors). Optical properties for less than a day-old fresh biomass burning aerosol, advected into Warsaw’s boundary layer from over Ukraine, were compared with the properties of long-range transported 3–5 day-old aged biomass burning aerosol detected in the free troposphere over Warsaw. Analyses of temporal changes of aerosol properties within the boundary layer, revealed an increase of aerosol optical depth and Ångström exponent accompanied by an increase of surface PM10 and PM2.5. Intrusions of advected biomass burning particles into the urban boundary layer seem to affect not only the optical properties observed but also the top height of the boundary layer, by moderating its increase.