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DDC: 690 × Subject: climate models ×

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    The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations
    (Bristol : IOP Publ., 2018) Lewandowsky, Stephan; Cowtan, Kevin; Risbey, James S; Mann, Michael E; Steinman, Byron A; Oreskes, Naomi; Rahmstorf, Stefan
    We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.