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- ItemFlood risk in a range of spatial perspectives – from global to local scales(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geophysical Society, 2019) Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Su, Buda; Wang, Yanjun; Wang, Guojie; Wang, Guofu; Huang, Jinlong; Jiang, TongThe present paper examines flood risk (composed of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability) in a range of spatial perspectives – from the global to the local scale. It deals with observed records, noting that flood damage has been increasing. It also tackles projections for the future, related to flood hazard and flood losses. There are multiple factors driving flood hazard and flood risk and there is a considerable uncertainty in our assessments, and particularly in projections for the future. Further, this paper analyses options for flood risk reduction in several spatial dimensions, from global framework to regional to local scales. It is necessary to continue examination of the updated records of flood-related indices, trying to search for changes that influence flood hazard and flood risk in river basins.
- ItemCombined rock slope stability and shallow landslide susceptibility assessment of the Jasmund cliff area (Rügen Island, Germany)(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geophysical Society, 2009-5-8) Günther, A.; Thiel, C.In this contribution we evaluated both the structurally-controlled failure susceptibility of the fractured Cretaceous chalk rocks and the topographically-controlled shallow landslide susceptibility of the overlying glacial sediments for the Jasmund cliff area on Rügen Island, Germany. We employed a combined methodology involving spatially distributed kinematical rock slope failure testing with tectonic fabric data, and both physically- and inventory-based shallow landslide susceptibility analysis. The rock slope failure susceptibility model identifies areas of recent cliff collapses, confirming its value in predicting the locations of future failures. The model reveals that toppling is the most important failure type in the Cretaceous chalk rocks of the area. The shallow landslide susceptibility analysis involves a physically-based slope stability evaluation which utilizes material strength and hydraulic conductivity data, and a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis exploiting landslide inventory data and thematic information on ground conditioning factors. Both models show reasonable success rates when evaluated with the available inventory data, and an attempt was made to combine the individual models to prepare a map displaying both terrain instability and landslide susceptibility. This combination highlights unstable cliff portions lacking discrete landslide areas as well as cliff sections highly affected by past landslide events. Through a spatial integration of the rock slope failure susceptibility model with the combined shallow landslide assessment we produced a comprehensive landslide susceptibility map for the Jasmund cliff area.
- ItemStructural analysis of S-wave seismics around an urban sinkhole: evidence of enhanced dissolution in a strike-slip fault zone(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geophysical Society, 2017-12-19) Wadas, Sonja H.; Tanner, David C.; Polom, Ulrich; Krawczyk, Charlotte M.In November 2010, a large sinkhole opened up in the urban area of Schmalkalden, Germany. To determine the key factors which benefited the development of this collapse structure and therefore the dissolution, we carried out several shear-wave reflection-seismic profiles around the sinkhole. In the seismic sections we see evidence of the Mesozoic tectonic movement in the form of a NW–SE striking, dextral strike-slip fault, known as the Heßleser Fault, which faulted and fractured the subsurface below the town. The strike-slip faulting created a zone of small blocks ( < 100 m in size), around which steep-dipping normal faults, reverse faults and a dense fracture network serve as fluid pathways for the artesian-confined groundwater. The faults also acted as barriers for horizontal groundwater flow perpendicular to the fault planes. Instead groundwater flows along the faults which serve as conduits and forms cavities in the Permian deposits below ca. 60 m depth. Mass movements and the resulting cavities lead to the formation of sinkholes and dissolution-induced depressions. Since the processes are still ongoing, the occurrence of a new sinkhole cannot be ruled out. This case study demonstrates how S-wave seismics can characterize a sinkhole and, together with geological information, can be used to study the processes that result in sinkhole formation, such as a near-surface fault zone located in soluble rocks. The more complex the fault geometry and interaction between faults, the more prone an area is to sinkhole occurrence.
- ItemHuman displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geophysical Society, 2023) Mester, Benedikt; Vogt, Thomas; Bryant, Seth; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja; Schewe, JacobExtreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, often trigger population displacement. The frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are affected by anthropogenic climate change. However, the effect of historical climate change on displacement risk has so far not been quantified. Here, we show how displacement can be partially attributed to climate change using the example of the 2019 Tropical Cyclone Idai in Mozambique. We estimate the population exposed to high water levels following Idai's landfall using a combination of a 2D hydrodynamical storm surge model and a flood depth estimation algorithm to determine inland flood depths from remote sensing images, factual (climate change) and counterfactual (no climate change) mean sea level, and maximum wind speed conditions. Our main estimates indicate that climate change has increased displacement risk from this event by approximately 12 600-14 900 additional displaced persons, corresponding to about 2.7 % to 3.2 % of the observed displacements. The isolated effect of wind speed intensification is double that of sea level rise. These results are subject to important uncertainties related to both data and modeling assumptions, and we perform multiple sensitivity experiments to assess the range of uncertainty where possible. Besides highlighting the significant effects on humanitarian conditions already imparted by climate change, our study provides a blueprint for event-based displacement attribution.