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DDC: 910 × Type: Text × search.filters.applied.f.series: Geoscientific Model Development 14 (2021), Nr. 10 × WGL Institute: PIK ×

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    REMIND2.1: transformation and innovation dynamics of the energy-economic system within climate and sustainability limits
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2021) Baumstark, Lavinia; Bauer, Nico; Benke, Falk; Bertram, Christoph; Bi, Stephen; Gong, Chen Chris; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Dirnaichner, Alois; Giannousakis, Anastasis; Hilaire, Jerome; Klein, David; Koch, Johannes; Leimbach, Marian; Levesque, Antoine; Madeddu, Silvia; Malik, Aman; Merfort, Anne; Merfort, Leon; Odenweller, Adrian; Pehl, Michaja; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Piontek, Franziska; Rauner, Sebastian; Rodrigues, Renato; Rottoli, Marianna; Schreyer, Felix; Schultes, Anselm; Soergel, Bjoern; Soergel, Dominika; Strefler, Jessica; Ueckerdt, Falko; Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar
    This paper presents the new and now open-source version 2.1 of the REgional Model of INvestments and Development (REMIND). REMIND, as an integrated assessment model (IAM), provides an integrated view of the global energy–economy–emissions system and explores self-consistent transformation pathways. It describes a broad range of possible futures and their relation to technical and socio-economic developments as well as policy choices. REMIND is a multiregional model incorporating the economy and a detailed representation of the energy sector implemented in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). It uses non-linear optimization to derive welfare-optimal regional transformation pathways of the energy-economic system subject to climate and sustainability constraints for the time horizon from 2005 to 2100. The resulting solution corresponds to the decentralized market outcome under the assumptions of perfect foresight of agents and internalization of external effects. REMIND enables the analyses of technology options and policy approaches for climate change mitigation with particular strength in representing the scale-up of new technologies, including renewables and their integration in power markets. The REMIND code is organized into modules that gather code relevant for specific topics. Interaction between different modules is made explicit via clearly defined sets of input and output variables. Each module can be represented by different realizations, enabling flexible configuration and extension. The spatial resolution of REMIND is flexible and depends on the resolution of the input data. Thus, the framework can be used for a variety of applications in a customized form, balancing requirements for detail and overall runtime and complexity.
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    Estimating global land system impacts of timber plantations using MAgPIE 4.3.5
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2021) Mishra, Abhijeet; Humpenoeder, Florian; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Sohngen, Brent; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander
    Out of 1150 Mha (million hectares) of forest designated primarily for production purposes in 2020, plantations accounted for 11 % (131 Mha) of this area and fulfilled more than 33 % of the global industrial roundwood demand. However, adding additional timber plantations to meet increasing timber demand intensifies competition for scarce land resources between different land uses such as food, feed, livestock and timber production. Despite the significance of plantations with respect to roundwood production, their importance in meeting the long-term timber demand and the implications of plantation expansion for overall land-use dynamics have not been studied in detail, in particular regarding the competition for land between agriculture and forestry in existing land-use models. This paper describes the extension of the modular, open-source land system Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE) using a detailed representation of forest land, timber production and timber demand dynamics. These extensions allow for a better understanding of the land-use dynamics (including competition for land) and the associated land-use change emissions of timber production. We show that the spatial cropland patterns differ when timber production is accounted for, indicating that timber plantations compete with cropland for the same scarce land resources. When plantations are established on cropland, it causes cropland expansion and deforestation elsewhere. Using the exogenous extrapolation of historical roundwood production from plantations, future timber demand and plantation rotation lengths, we model the future spatial expansion of forest plantations. As a result of increasing timber demand, we show a 177 % increase in plantation area by the end of the century (+171 Mha in 1995–2100). We also observe (in our model results) that the increasing demand for timber amplifies the scarcity of land, which is indicated by shifting agricultural land-use patterns and increasing yields from cropland compared with a case without forestry. Through the inclusion of new forest plantation and natural forest dynamics, our estimates of land-related CO2 emissions better match with observed data, in particular the gross land-use change emissions and carbon uptake (via regrowth), reflecting higher deforestation with the expansion of managed land and timber production as well as higher regrowth in natural forests and plantations.