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- ItemChanges of temperature-related agroclimatic indices in Poland(Heidelberg : Springer Verlag, 2016) Graczyk, D.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.
- ItemClimate change impacts on hydrology and water resources(Stuttgart : Gebrueder Borntraeger Verlagsbuchhandlung, 2015) Hattermann, F.F.; Huang, S.; Koch, H.
- ItemThe IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2022) Kikstra, Jarmo S.; Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.; Smith, Christopher J.; Lewis, Jared; Lamboll, Robin D.; Byers, Edward; Sandstad, Marit; Meinshausen, Malte; Gidden, Matthew J.; Rogelj, Joeri; Kriegler, Elmar; Peters, Glen P.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.; Samset, Bjørn H.; Wienpahl, Laura; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar; Al Khourdajie, Alaa; Forster, Piers M.; Reisinger, Andy; Schaeffer, Roberto; Riahi, KeywanWhile the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science reports usually assess a handful of future scenarios, the Working Group III contribution on climate mitigation to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6 WGIII) assesses hundreds to thousands of future emissions scenarios. A key task in WGIII is to assess the global mean temperature outcomes of these scenarios in a consistent manner, given the challenge that the emissions scenarios from different integrated assessment models (IAMs) come with different sectoral and gas-to-gas coverage and cannot all be assessed consistently by complex Earth system models. In this work, we describe the "climate-assessment"workflow and its methods, including infilling of missing emissions and emissions harmonisation as applied to 1202 mitigation scenarios in AR6 WGIII. We evaluate the global mean temperature projections and effective radiative forcing (ERF) characteristics of climate emulators FaIRv1.6.2 and MAGICCv7.5.3 and use the CICERO simple climate model (CICERO-SCM) for sensitivity analysis. We discuss the implied overshoot severity of the mitigation pathways using overshoot degree years and look at emissions and temperature characteristics of scenarios compatible with one possible interpretation of the Paris Agreement. We find that the lowest class of emissions scenarios that limit global warming to "1.5 ° C (with a probability of greater than 50 %) with no or limited overshoot"includes 97 scenarios for MAGICCv7.5.3 and 203 for FaIRv1.6.2. For the MAGICCv7.5.3 results, "limited overshoot"typically implies exceedance of median temperature projections of up to about 0.1 ° C for up to a few decades before returning to below 1.5 ° C by or before the year 2100. For more than half of the scenarios in this category that comply with three criteria for being "Paris-compatible", including net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, median temperatures decline by about 0.3-0.4 ° C after peaking at 1.5-1.6 ° C in 2035-2055. We compare the methods applied in AR6 with the methods used for SR1.5 and discuss their implications. This article also introduces a "climate-assessment"Python package which allows for fully reproducing the IPCC AR6 WGIII temperature assessment. This work provides a community tool for assessing the temperature outcomes of emissions pathways and provides a basis for further work such as extending the workflow to include downscaling of climate characteristics to a regional level and calculating impacts.
- ItemUncertainty of biomass contributions from agriculture and forestry to renewable energy resources under climate change(Stuttgart : Gebrueder Borntraeger Verlagsbuchhandlung, 2015) Gutsch, M.; Lasch-Born, P.; Lüttger, A.B.; Suckow, F.; Murawski, A.; Pilz, T.
- ItemThe Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.
- ItemHalf a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): Background and experimental design(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles; Bethke, Ingo; Beyerle, Urs; Ciavarella, Andrew; Forster, Piers M.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Gillett, Nathan; Haustein, Karsten; Ingram, William; Iversen, Trond; Kharin, Viatcheslav; Klingaman, Nicholas; Massey, Neil; Fischer, Erich; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Scinocca, John; Seland, Øyvind; Shiogama, Hideo; Shuckburgh, Emily; Sparrow, Sarah; Stone, DáithÃ; Uhe, Peter; Wallom, David; Wehner, Michael; Zaaboul, RashydThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0°C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios. Large ensembles of simulations (> 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006–2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2°C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5°C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2°C scenario.
- ItemEffect of climate change on hydrology, sediment and nutrient losses in two lowland catchments in Poland(Basel : MDPI AG, 2017) Marcinkowski, P.; Piniewski, M.; Kardel, I.; Szcześniak, M.; Benestad, R.; Srinivasan, R.; Ignar, S.; Okruszko, T.Future climate change is projected to have significant impact on water resources availability and quality in many parts of the world. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of projected climate change on water quantity and quality in two lowland catchments (the Upper Narew and the Barycz) in Poland in two future periods (near future: 2021-2050, and far future: 2071-2100). The hydrological model SWAT was driven by climate forcing data from an ensemble of nine bias-corrected General Circulation Models-Regional Climate Models (GCM-RCM) runs based on the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment-European Domain (EURO-CORDEX). Hydrological response to climate warming and wetter conditions (particularly in winter and spring) in both catchments includes: lower snowmelt, increased percolation and baseflow and higher runoff. Seasonal differences in the response between catchments can be explained by their properties (e.g., different thermal conditions and soil permeability). Projections suggest only moderate increases in sediment loss, occurring mainly in summer and winter. A sharper increase is projected in both catchments for TN losses, especially in the Barycz catchment characterized by a more intensive agriculture. The signal of change in annual TP losses is blurred by climate model uncertainty in the Barycz catchment, whereas a weak and uncertain increase is projected in the Upper Narew catchment.
- ItemForests under climate change: Potential risks and opportunities(Stuttgart : Gebrueder Borntraeger Verlagsbuchhandlung, 2015) Lasch-Born, P.; Suckow, F.; Gutsch, M.; Reyer, C.; Hauf, Y.; Murawski, A.; Pilz, T.
- ItemAssessment of climate change impacts on water resources in three representative ukrainian catchments using eco-hydrological modelling(Basel : MDPI AG, 2017) Didovets, I.; Lobanova, A.; Bronstert, A.; Snizhko, S.; Maule, C.F.; Krysanova, V.The information about climate change impact on river discharge is vitally important for planning adaptation measures. The future changes can affect different water-related sectors. The main goal of this study was to investigate the potential water resource changes in Ukraine, focusing on three mesoscale river catchments (Teteriv, UpperWestern Bug, and Samara) characteristic for different geographical zones. The catchment scale watershed model-Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM)-was setup, calibrated, and validated for the three catchments under consideration. A set of seven GCM-RCM (General Circulation Model-Regional Climate Model) coupled climate scenarios corresponding to RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological catchment model. The climate projections, used in the study, were considered as three combinations of low, intermediate, and high end scenarios. Our results indicate the shifts in the seasonal distribution of runoff in all three catchments. The spring high flow occurs earlier as a result of temperature increases and earlier snowmelt. The fairly robust trend is an increase in river discharge in the winter season, and most of the scenarios show a potential decrease in river discharge in the spring.
- ItemGlobal and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2014) Boysen, L.R.; Brovkin, V.; Arora, V.K.; Cadule, P.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Kato, E.; Pongratz, J.; Gayler, V.Biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC) are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2simulations for the 21st century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs) are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC), contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID) project. Over the period 2006-2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between g 0.47 and 0.10 K). Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly) and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.