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    3+2 + X : what is the most useful depolarization input for retrieving microphysical properties of non-spherical particles from lidar measurements using the spheroid model of Dubovik et al. (2006)?
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2019) Tesche, Matthias; Kolgotin, Alexei; Haarig, Moritz; Burton, Sharon P.; Ferrare, Richard A.; Hostetler, Chris A.; Müller, Detlef
    The typical multiwavelength aerosol lidar data set for inversion of optical to microphysical parameters is composed of three backscatter coefficients (β) at 355, 532, and 1064 nm and two extinction coefficients (α) at 355 and 532 nm. This data combination is referred to as a 3β C 2α or 3 + 2 data set. This set of data is sufficient for retrieving some important microphysical particle parameters if the particles have spherical shape. Here, we investigate the effect of including the particle linear depolarization ratio (δ) as a third input parameter for the inversion of lidar data. The inversion algorithm is generally not used if measurements show values of d that exceed 0.10 at 532 nm, i.e. in the presence of nonspherical particles such as desert dust, volcanic ash, and, under special circumstances, biomass-burning smoke. We use experimental data collected with instruments that are capable of measuring d at all three lidar wavelengths with an inversion routine that applies the spheroidal light-scattering model of Dubovik et al. (2006) with a fixed axis-ratio distribution to replicate scattering properties of non-spherical particles. The inversion gives the fraction of spheroids required to replicate the optical data as an additional output parameter. This is the first systematic test of the effect of using all theoretically possible combinations of d taken at 355, 532, and 1064 nm as input in the lidar data inversion. We find that depolarization information of at least one wavelength already provides useful information for the inversion of optical data that have been collected in the presence of non-spherical mineral dust particles. However, any choice of d will give lower values of the single-scattering albedo than the traditional 3 + 2 data set. We find that input data sets that include d355 give a spheroid fraction that closely resembles the dust ratio we obtain from using β532 and d532 in a methodology applied in aerosol-type separation. The use of d355 in data sets of two or three d? reduces the spheroid fraction that is retrieved when using d532 and d1064. Use of the latter two parameters without accounting for d355 generally leads to high spheroid fractions that we consider not trustworthy. The use of three d instead of two δ, including the constraint that one of these is measured at 355 nm does not provide any advantage over using 3 + 2 + d355 for the observations with varying contributions of mineral dust considered here. However, additional measurements at wavelengths different from 355 nm would be desirable for application to a wider range of aerosol scenarios that may include non-spherical smoke particles, which can have values of d355 that are indistinguishable from those found for mineral dust. We therefore conclude that - depending on measurement capability - the future standard input for inversion of lidar data taken in the presence of mineral dust particles and using the spheroid model of Dubovik et al. (2006) might be 3+2Cδ355 or 3 + 2 + δ355 + δ532. © 2019 The Author(s).
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    Organic aerosol components derived from 25 AMS data sets across Europe using a consistent ME-2 based source apportionment approach
    (München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Crippa, M.; Canonaco, F.; Lanz, V.A.; Äijälä, M.; Allan, J.D.; Carbone, S.; Capes, G.; Ceburnis, D.; Dall'Osto, M.; Day, D.A.; DeCarlo, P.F.; Ehn, M.; Eriksson, A.; Freney, E.; Hildebrandt Ruiz, L.; Hillamo, R.; Jimenez, J.L.; Junninen, H.; Kiendler-Scharr, A.; Kortelainen, A.-M.; Kulmala, M.; Laaksonen, A.; Mensah, A.A.; Mohr, C.; Nemitz, E.; O'Dowd, C.; Ovadnevaite, J.; Pandis, S.N.; Petäjä, T.; Poulain, L.; Saarikoski, S.; Sellegri, K.; Swietlicki, E.; Tiitta, P.; Worsnop, D.R.; Baltensperger, U.; Prévôt, A.S.H.
    Organic aerosols (OA) represent one of the major constituents of submicron particulate matter (PM1) and comprise a huge variety of compounds emitted by different sources. Three intensive measurement field campaigns to investigate the aerosol chemical composition all over Europe were carried out within the framework of the European Integrated Project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions (EUCAARI) and the intensive campaigns of European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) during 2008 (May–June and September–October) and 2009 (February–March). In this paper we focus on the identification of the main organic aerosol sources and we define a standardized methodology to perform source apportionment using positive matrix factorization (PMF) with the multilinear engine (ME-2) on Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) data. Our source apportionment procedure is tested and applied on 25 data sets accounting for two urban, several rural and remote and two high altitude sites; therefore it is likely suitable for the treatment of AMS-related ambient data sets. For most of the sites, four organic components are retrieved, improving significantly previous source apportionment results where only a separation in primary and secondary OA sources was possible. Generally, our solutions include two primary OA sources, i.e. hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA) and biomass burning OA (BBOA) and two secondary OA components, i.e. semi-volatile oxygenated OA (SV-OOA) and low-volatility oxygenated OA (LV-OOA). For specific sites cooking-related (COA) and marine-related sources (MSA) are also separated. Finally, our work provides a large overview of organic aerosol sources in Europe and an interesting set of highly time resolved data for modeling purposes.
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    The HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment (HOPE) - An overview
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2017) Macke, Andreas; Seifert, Patric; Baars, Holger; Barthlott, Christian; Beekmans, Christoph; Behrendt, Andreas; Bohn, Birger; Brueck, Matthias; Bühl, Johannes; Crewell, Susanne; Damian, Thomas; Deneke, Hartwig; Düsing, Sebastian; Foth, Andreas; Di Girolamo, Paolo; Hammann, Eva; Heinze, Rieke; Hirsikko, Anne; Kalisch, John; Kalthoff, Norbert; Kinne, Stefan; Kohler, Martin; Löhnert, Ulrich; Madhavan, Bomidi Lakshmi; Maurer, Vera; Muppa, Shravan Kumar; Schween, Jan; Serikov, Ilya; Siebert, Holger; Simmer, Clemens; Späth, Florian; Steinke, Sandra; Träumner, Katja; Trömel, Silke; Wehner, Birgit; Wieser, Andreas; Wulfmeyer, Volker; Xie, Xinxin
    The HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment (HOPE) was performed as a major 2-month field experiment in Jülich, Germany, in April and May 2013, followed by a smaller campaign in Melpitz, Germany, in September 2013. HOPE has been designed to provide an observational dataset for a critical evaluation of the new German community atmospheric icosahedral non-hydrostatic (ICON) model at the scale of the model simulations and further to provide information on land-surface-atmospheric boundary layer exchange, cloud and precipitation processes, as well as sub-grid variability and microphysical properties that are subject to parameterizations. HOPE focuses on the onset of clouds and precipitation in the convective atmospheric boundary layer. This paper summarizes the instrument set-ups, the intensive observation periods, and example results from both campaigns.

    HOPE-Jülich instrumentation included a radio sounding station, 4 Doppler lidars, 4 Raman lidars (3 of them provide temperature, 3 of them water vapour, and all of them particle backscatter data), 1 water vapour differential absorption lidar, 3 cloud radars, 5 microwave radiometers, 3 rain radars, 6 sky imagers, 99 pyranometers, and 5 sun photometers operated at different sites, some of them in synergy. The HOPE-Melpitz campaign combined ground-based remote sensing of aerosols and clouds with helicopter- and balloon-based in situ observations in the atmospheric column and at the surface.

    HOPE provided an unprecedented collection of atmospheric dynamical, thermodynamical, and micro- and macrophysical properties of aerosols, clouds, and precipitation with high spatial and temporal resolution within a cube of approximately 10 × 10 × 10km3. HOPE data will significantly contribute to our understanding of boundary layer dynamics and the formation of clouds and precipitation. The datasets have been made available through a dedicated data portal.

    First applications of HOPE data for model evaluation have shown a general agreement between observed and modelled boundary layer height, turbulence characteristics, and cloud coverage, but they also point to significant differences that deserve further investigations from both the observational and the modelling perspective.
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    Evaporation of sulfate aerosols at low relative humidity
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2017) Tsagkogeorgas, Georgios; Roldin, Pontus; Duplissy, Jonathan; Rondo, Linda; Tröstl, Jasmin; Slowik, Jay G.; Ehrhart, Sebastian; Franchin, Alessandro; Kürten, Andreas; Amorim, Antonio; Bianchi, Federico; Kirkby, Jasper; Petäjä, Tuukka; Baltensperger, Urs; Boy, Michael; Curtius, Joachim; Flagan, Richard C.; Kulmala, Markku; Donahue, Neil M.; Stratmann, Frank
    Evaporation of sulfuric acid from particles can be important in the atmospheres of Earth and Venus. However, the equilibrium constant for the dissociation of H2SO4 to bisulfate ions, which is the one of the fundamental parameters controlling the evaporation of sulfur particles, is not well constrained. In this study we explore the volatility of sulfate particles at very low relative humidity. We measured the evaporation of sulfur particles versus temperature and relative humidity in the CLOUD chamber at CERN. We modelled the observed sulfur particle shrinkage with the ADCHAM model. Based on our model results, we conclude that the sulfur particle shrinkage is mainly governed by H2SO4 and potentially to some extent by SO3 evaporation. We found that the equilibrium constants for the dissociation of H2SO4 to HSO4-(KH2SO4) and the dehydration of H2SO4 to SO3 (KSO3) are KH2SO4 Combining double low line 2-4 × 109 kg-1 and KSO3 ≥ 1.4 × g 1010 at 288.8± 5K.
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    Detection and attribution of aerosol-cloud interactions in large-domain large-eddy simulations with the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic model
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Costa-Surós, Montserrat; Sourdeval, Odran; Acquistapace, Claudia; Baars, Holger; Carbajal Henken, Cintia; Genz, Christa; Hesemann, Jonas; Jimenez, Cristofer; König, Marcel; Kretzschmar, Jan; Madenach, Nils; Meyer, Catrin I.; Schrödner, Roland; Seifert, Patric; Senf, Fabian; Brueck, Matthias; Cioni, Guido; Engels, Jan Frederik; Fieg, Kerstin; Gorges, Ksenia; Heinze, Rieke; Kumar Siligam, Pavan; Burkhardt, Ulrike; Crewell, Susanne; Hoose, Corinna; Seifert, Axel; Tegen, Ina; Quaas, Johannes
    Clouds and aerosols contribute the largest uncertainty to current estimates and interpretations of the Earth's changing energy budget. Here we use a new-generation large-domain large-eddy model, ICON-LEM (ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic Large Eddy Model), to simulate the response of clouds to realistic anthropogenic perturbations in aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The novelty compared to previous studies is that (i) the LEM is run in weather prediction mode and with fully interactive land surface over a large domain and (ii) a large range of data from various sources are used for the detection and attribution. The aerosol perturbation was chosen as peak-aerosol conditions over Europe in 1985, with more than fivefold more sulfate than in 2013. Observational data from various satellite and ground-based remote sensing instruments are used, aiming at the detection and attribution of this response. The simulation was run for a selected day (2 May 2013) in which a large variety of cloud regimes was present over the selected domain of central Europe. It is first demonstrated that the aerosol fields used in the model are consistent with corresponding satellite aerosol optical depth retrievals for both 1985 (perturbed) and 2013 (reference) conditions. In comparison to retrievals from groundbased lidar for 2013, CCN profiles for the reference conditions were consistent with the observations, while the ones for the 1985 conditions were not. Similarly, the detection and attribution process was successful for droplet number concentrations: the ones simulated for the 2013 conditions were consistent with satellite as well as new ground-based lidar retrievals, while the ones for the 1985 conditions were outside the observational range. For other cloud quantities, including cloud fraction, liquid water path, cloud base altitude and cloud lifetime, the aerosol response was small compared to their natural vari ability. Also, large uncertainties in satellite and ground-based observations make the detection and attribution difficult for these quantities. An exception to this is the fact that at a large liquid water path value (LWP > 200 g m-2), the control simulation matches the observations, while the perturbed one shows an LWP which is too large. The model simulations allowed for quantifying the radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions, as well as the adjustments to this forcing. The latter were small compared to the variability and showed overall a small positive radiative effect. The overall effective radiative forcing (ERF) due to aerosol-cloud interactions (ERFaci) in the simulation was dominated thus by the Twomey effect and yielded for this day, region and aerosol perturbation-2:6 W m-2. Using general circulation models to scale this to a global-mean present-day vs. pre-industrial ERFaci yields a global ERFaci of-0:8 W m-2 © 2020 Author(s).
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    The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3-Part 2: Cloud evaluation, aerosol radiative forcing, and climate sensitivity
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2019) Neubauer, David; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Siegenthaler-Le Drian, Colombe; Stier, Philip; Partridge, Daniel G.; Tegen, Ina; Bey, Isabelle; Stanelle, Tanja; Kokkola, Harri; Lohmann, Ulrike
    The global aerosol–climate model ECHAM6.3–HAM2.3 (E63H23) as well as the previous model versions ECHAM5.5–HAM2.0 (E55H20) and ECHAM6.1–HAM2.2 (E61H22) are evaluated using global observational datasets for clouds and precipitation. In E63H23, the amount of low clouds, the liquid and ice water path, and cloud radiative effects are more realistic than in previous model versions. E63H23 has a more physically based aerosol activation scheme, improvements in the cloud cover scheme, changes in the detrainment of convective clouds, changes in the sticking efficiency for the accretion of ice crystals by snow, consistent ice crystal shapes throughout the model, and changes in mixed-phase freezing; an inconsistency in ice crystal number concentration (ICNC) in cirrus clouds was also removed. Common biases in ECHAM and in E63H23 (and in previous ECHAM–HAM versions) are a cloud amount in stratocumulus regions that is too low and deep convective clouds over the Atlantic and Pacific oceans that form too close to the continents (while tropical land precipitation is underestimated). There are indications that ICNCs are overestimated in E63H23. Since clouds are important for effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFari+aci) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), differences in ERFari+aci and ECS between the model versions were also analyzed. ERFari+aci is weaker in E63H23 (−1.0 W m−2) than in E61H22 (−1.2 W m−2) (or E55H20; −1.1 W m−2). This is caused by the weaker shortwave ERFari+aci (a new aerosol activation scheme and sea salt emission parameterization in E63H23, more realistic simulation of cloud water) overcompensating for the weaker longwave ERFari+aci (removal of an inconsistency in ICNC in cirrus clouds in E61H22). The decrease in ECS in E63H23 (2.5 K) compared to E61H22 (2.8 K) is due to changes in the entrainment rate for shallow convection (affecting the cloud amount feedback) and a stronger cloud phase feedback. Experiments with minimum cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNCmin) of 40 cm−3 or 10 cm−3 show that a higher value of CDNCmin reduces ERFari+aci as well as ECS in E63H23.
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    CAPRAM reduction towards an operational multiphase halogen and dimethyl sulfide chemistry treatment in the chemistry transport model COSMO-Muscat(5.04e)
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2020) Hoffmann, Erik H.; Schrödner, Roland; Tilgner, Andreas; Wolke, Ralf; Herrmann, Hartmut
    A condensed multiphase halogen and dimethyl sulfide (DMS) chemistry mechanism for application in chemistry transport models is developed by reducing the CAPRAM DMS module 1.0 (CAPRAM-DM1.0) and the CAPRAM halogen module 3.0 (CAPRAM-HM3.0). The reduction is achieved by determining the main oxidation pathways from analysing the mass fluxes of complex multiphase chemistry simulations with the air parcel model SPACCIM (SPectral Aerosol Cloud Chemistry Interaction Model). These simulations are designed to cover both pristine and polluted marine boundary layer conditions. Overall, the reduced CAPRAM-DM1.0 contains 32 gas-phase reactions, 5 phase transfers, and 12 aqueous-phase reactions, of which two processes are described as equilibrium reactions. The reduced CAPRAM-HM3.0 contains 199 gas-phase reactions, 23 phase transfers, and 87 aqueous-phase reactions. For the aqueous-phase chemistry, 39 processes are described as chemical equilibrium reactions. A comparison of simulations using the complete CAPRAM-DM1.0 and CAPRAM-HM3.0 mechanisms against the reduced ones indicates that the relative deviations are below 5 % for important inorganic and organic air pollutants and key reactive species under pristine ocean and polluted conditions. The reduced mechanism has been implemented into the chemical transport model COSMO-MUSCAT and tested by performing 2D simulations under prescribed meteorological conditions that investigate the effect of stable (stratiform cloud) and more unstable meteorological conditions (convective clouds) on marine multiphase chemistry. The simulated maximum concentration of HCl is of the order of 109 molecules cm−3 and that of BrO is around 1×107 molecules cm−3, reproducing the range of ambient measurements. Afterwards, the oxidation pathways of DMS in a cloudy marine atmosphere have been investigated in detail. The simulations demonstrate that clouds have both a direct and an indirect photochemical effect on the multiphase processing of DMS and its oxidation products. The direct photochemical effect is related to in-cloud chemistry that leads to high dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) oxidation rates and a subsequently enhanced formation of methane sulfonic acid compared to aerosol chemistry. The indirect photochemical effect is characterized by cloud shading, which occurs particularly in the case of stratiform clouds. The lower photolysis rate affects the activation of Br atoms and consequently lowers the formation of BrO radicals. The corresponding DMS oxidation flux is lowered by up to 30 % under thick optical clouds. Moreover, high updraught velocities lead to a strong vertical mixing of DMS into the free troposphere predominately under cloudy conditions. The photolysis of hypohalous acids (HOX, X = Cl, Br, or I) is reduced as well, resulting in higher HOX-driven sulfite-to-sulfate oxidation in aerosol particles below stratiform clouds. Altogether, the present model simulations have demonstrated the ability of the reduced mechanism to be applied in studying marine aerosol–cloud processing effects in regional models such as COSMO-MUSCAT. The reduced mechanism can be used also by other regional models for more adequate interpretations of complex marine field measurement data.
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    Implementation of aerosol-cloud interactions in the regional atmosphere-aerosol model COSMO-Muscat(5.0) and evaluation using satellite data
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2017) Dipu, Sudhakar; Quaas, Johannes; Wolke, Ralf; Stoll, Jens; Mühlbauer, Andreas; Sourdeval, Odran; Salzmann, Marc; Heinold, Bernd; Tegen, Ina
    The regional atmospheric model Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) coupled to the Multi-Scale Chemistry Aerosol Transport model (Muscat) is extended in this work to represent aerosol-cloud interactions. Previously, only one-way interactions (scavenging of aerosol and in-cloud chemistry) and aerosol-radiation interactions were included in this model. The new version allows for a microphysical aerosol effect on clouds. For this, we use the optional two-moment cloud microphysical scheme in COSMO and the online-computed aerosol information for cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (Cccn), replacing the constant Cccn profile. In the radiation scheme, we have implemented a droplet-size-dependent cloud optical depth, allowing now for aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions. To evaluate the models with satellite data, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package (COSP) has been implemented. A case study has been carried out to understand the effects of the modifications, where the modified modeling system is applied over the European domain with a horizontal resolution of 0.25°g × g0.25°. To reduce the complexity in aerosol-cloud interactions, only warm-phase clouds are considered. We found that the online-coupled aerosol introduces significant changes for some cloud microphysical properties. The cloud effective radius shows an increase of 9.5g%, and the cloud droplet number concentration is reduced by 21.5g%.
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    The global aerosol-climate model echam6.3-ham2.3 -Part 1: Aerosol evaluation
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2019) Tegen, I.; Neubauer, D.; Ferrachat, S.; Drian, C.S.-L.; Bey, I.; Schutgens, N.; Stier, P.; Watson-Parris, D.; Stanelle, T.; Schmidt, H.; Rast, S.; Kokkola, H.; Schultz, M.; Schroeder, S.; Daskalakis, N.; Barthel, S.; Heinold, B.; Lohmann, U.
    We introduce and evaluate aerosol simulations with the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3, which is the aerosol component of the fully coupled aerosol-chemistry-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ. Both the host atmospheric climate model ECHAM6.3 and the aerosol model HAM2.3 were updated from previous versions. The updated version of the HAM aerosol model contains improved parameterizations of aerosol processes such as cloud activation, as well as updated emission fields for anthropogenic aerosol species and modifications in the online computation of sea salt and mineral dust aerosol emissions. Aerosol results from nudged and free-running simulations for the 10-year period 2003 to 2012 are compared to various measurements of aerosol properties. While there are regional deviations between the model and observations, the model performs well overall in terms of aerosol optical thickness, but may underestimate coarse-mode aerosol concentrations to some extent so that the modeled particles are smaller than indicated by the observations. Sulfate aerosol measurements in the US and Europe are reproduced well by the model, while carbonaceous aerosol species are biased low. Both mineral dust and sea salt aerosol concentrations are improved compared to previous versions of ECHAM-HAM. The evaluation of the simulated aerosol distributions serves as a basis for the suitability of the model for simulating aerosol-climate interactions in a changing climate.
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    EURODELTA III exercise: An evaluation of air quality models’ capacity to reproduce the carbonaceous aerosol
    (Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2019) Mircea, Mihaela; Bessagnet, Bertrand; D'Isidoro, Massimo; Pirovano, Guido; Aksoyoglu, Sebnem; Ciarelli, Giancarlo; Tsyro, Svetlana; Manders, Astrid; Bieser, Johannes; Stern, Rainer; Vivanco, Marta García; Cuvelier, Cornelius; Aas, Wenche; Prévôt, André S.H.; Aulinger, Armin; Briganti, Gino; Calori, Giuseppe; Cappelletti, Andrea; Colette, Augustin; Couvidat, Florian; Fagerli, Hilde; Finardi, Sandro; Kranenburg, Richard; Rouïl, Laurence; Silibello, Camillo; Spindler, Gerald; Poulain, Laurent; Herrmann, Hartmut; Jimenez, Jose L.; Day, Douglas A.; Tiitta, Petri; Carbone, Samara
    The carbonaceous aerosol accounts for an important part of total aerosol mass, affects human health and climate through its effects on physical and chemical properties of the aerosol, yet the understanding of its atmospheric sources and sinks is still incomplete. This study shows the state-of-the-art in modelling carbonaceous aerosol over Europe by comparing simulations performed with seven chemical transport models (CTMs) currently in air quality assessments in Europe: CAMx, CHIMERE, CMAQ, EMEP/MSC-W, LOTOS-EUROS, MINNI and RCGC. The simulations were carried out in the framework of the EURODELTA III modelling exercise and were evaluated against field measurements from intensive campaigns of European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and the European Integrated Project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions (EUCAARI). Model simulations were performed over the same domain, using as much as possible the same input data and covering four seasons: summer (1–30 June 2006), winter (8 January – 4 February 2007), autumn (17 September- 15 October 2008) and spring (25 February - 26 March 2009). The analyses of models’ performances in prediction of elemental carbon (EC) for the four seasons and organic aerosol components (OA) for the last two seasons show that all models generally underestimate the measured concentrations. The maximum underestimation of EC is about 60% and up to about 80% for total organic matter (TOM). The underestimation of TOM outside of highly polluted area is a consequence of an underestimation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), in particular of its main contributor: biogenic secondary aerosol (BSOA). This result is independent on the SOA modelling approach used and season. The concentrations and daily cycles of total primary organic matter (TPOM) are generally better reproduced by the models since they used the same anthropogenic emissions. However, the combination of emissions and model formulation leads to overestimate TPOM concentrations in 2009 for most of the models. All models capture relatively well the SOA daily cycles at rural stations mainly due to the spatial resolution used in the simulations. For the investigated carbonaceous aerosol compounds, the differences between the concentrations simulated by different models are lower than the differences between the concentrations simulated with a model for different seasons. © 2019 The Authors