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- ItemPotential climate change impacts on the water balance of subcatchments of the River Spree, Germany(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Pohle, I.; Koch, H.; Grünewald, U.Lusatia is considered one of the driest regions of Germany. The climatic water balance is negative even under current climate conditions. Due to global climate change, increased temperatures and a shift of precipitation from summer to winter are expected. Therefore, it is of major interest whether the excess water in winter can be stored and to which extent it is used up on increasing evapotranspiration. Thus, this study focuses on estimating potential climate change impacts on the water balance of two subcatchments of the River Spree using the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM). Climate input was taken from 100 realisations each of two scenarios of the STatistical Analogue Resampling scheme STAR assuming a further temperature increase of 0 K (scenario A) and 2 K by the year 2055 (scenario B) respectively. Resulting from increased temperatures and a shift in precipitation from summer to winter actual evapotranspiration is supposed to increase in winter and early spring, but to decrease in later spring and early summer. This is less pronounced for scenario A than for scenario B. Consequently, also the decrease in discharge and groundwater recharge in late spring is lower for scenario A than for scenario B. The highest differences of runoff generation and groundwater recharge between the two scenarios but also the highest ranges within the scenarios occur in summer and early autumn. It is planned to estimate potential climate change for the catchments of Spree, Schwarze Elster and Lusatian Neisse.
- ItemOrganic aerosol concentration and composition over Europe: Insights from comparison of regional model predictions with aerosol mass spectrometer factor analysis(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Fountoukis, C.; Megaritis, A.G.; Skyllakou, K.; Charalampidis, P.E.; Pilinis, C.; van der Gon, H.A.C. Denier; Crippa, M.; Canonaco, F.; Mohr, C.; Prévôt, A.S.H.; Allan, J.D.; Poulain, L.; Petäjä, T.; Tiitta, P.; Carbone, S.; Kiendler-Scharr, A.; Nemitz, E.; O'Dowd, C.; Swietlicki, E.; Pandis, S.N.A detailed three-dimensional regional chemical transport model (Particulate Matter Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions, PMCAMx) was applied over Europe, focusing on the formation and chemical transformation of organic matter. Three periods representative of different seasons were simulated, corresponding to intensive field campaigns. An extensive set of AMS measurements was used to evaluate the model and, using factor-analysis results, gain more insight into the sources and transformations of organic aerosol (OA). Overall, the agreement between predictions and measurements for OA concentration is encouraging, with the model reproducing two-thirds of the data (daily average mass concentrations) within a factor of 2. Oxygenated OA (OOA) is predicted to contribute 93% to total OA during May, 87% during winter and 96% during autumn, with the rest consisting of fresh primary OA (POA). Predicted OOA concentrations compare well with the observed OOA values for all periods, with an average fractional error of 0.53 and a bias equal to −0.07 (mean error = 0.9 μg m−3, mean bias = −0.2 μg m−3). The model systematically underpredicts fresh POA at most sites during late spring and autumn (mean bias up to −0.8 μg m−3). Based on results from a source apportionment algorithm running in parallel with PMCAMx, most of the POA originates from biomass burning (fires and residential wood combustion), and therefore biomass burning OA is most likely underestimated in the emission inventory. The sensitivity of POA predictions to the corresponding emissions' volatility distribution is discussed. The model performs well at all sites when the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF)-estimated low-volatility OOA is compared against the OA with saturation concentrations of the OA surrogate species C* ≤ 0.1 μg m−3 and semivolatile OOA against the OA with C* > 0.1 μg m−3.
- ItemLong-term wintertime trend of zonally asymmetric ozone in boreal extratropics during 1979-2016(Basel : MDPI AG, 2018) Schneidereit, A.; Peters, D.H.W.Strong zonally asymmetric ozone (ZAO) changes are observed in the boreal extratropics for winter. During the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) period (1979-1992) the decrease of zonally asymmetric total ozone (ZATO) was twice as large as the observed zonal mean total ozone trend over Europe in January mainly caused by ultra-long wave transport. Recent studies have demonstrated that the ozone evolution reveals three different quasi-bidecadal trend stages: (i) Decline, (ii) leveling, and (ii) healing. This study focuses on the ZAO structure in boreal extratropics and on ozone transport changes by ultra-long waves during winter months. ERA-Interim data together with a linearized transport model are used. During the healing stage ZATO increases significantly over the North Atlantic/European region for January. The ZATO increase (healing stage) and ZATO decrease (decline stage) are caused by different monthly mean ozone transport characteristics of ultra-long planetary waves over the North Atlantic/European region. Furthermore, the vertical advection (ageostrophic transport) of ozone versus its horizontal component dominates in the lower and middle stratosphere during the healing stage. It is hypothesized that these ageostrophic wind changes are mainly caused by a wave train directed northeastwards which seems to be directly linked to the Arctic warming. © 2018 by the authors.
- ItemGravity waves excited during a minor sudden stratospheric warming(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2018-9-7) Dörnbrack, Andreas; Gisinger, Sonja; Kaifler, Natalie; Portele, Tanja Christina; Bramberger, Martina; Rapp, Markus; Gerding, Michael; Söder, Jens; Žagar, Nedjeljka; Jelić, DamjanAn exceptionally deep upper-air sounding launched from Kiruna airport (67.82∘ N, 20.33∘ E) on 30 January 2016 stimulated the current investigation of internal gravity waves excited during a minor sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Arctic winter 2015/16. The analysis of the radiosonde profile revealed large kinetic and potential energies in the upper stratosphere without any simultaneous enhancement of upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric values. Upward-propagating inertia-gravity waves in the upper stratosphere and downward-propagating modes in the lower stratosphere indicated a region of gravity wave generation in the stratosphere. Two-dimensional wavelet analysis was applied to vertical time series of temperature fluctuations in order to determine the vertical propagation direction of the stratospheric gravity waves in 1-hourly high-resolution meteorological analyses and short-term forecasts. The separation of upward- and downward-propagating waves provided further evidence for a stratospheric source of gravity waves. The scale-dependent decomposition of the flow into a balanced component and inertia-gravity waves showed that coherent wave packets preferentially occurred at the inner edge of the Arctic polar vortex where a sub-vortex formed during the minor SSW.
- ItemSize-dependent particle activation properties in fog during the ParisFog 2012/13 field campaign(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2014) Hammer, E.; Gysel, M.; Roberts, G.C.; Elias, T.; Hofer, J.; Hoyle, C.R.; Bukowiecki, N.; Dupont, J.-C.; Burnet, F.; Baltensperger, U.; Weingartner, E.Fog-induced visibility reduction is responsible for a variety of hazards in the transport sector. Therefore there is a large demand for an improved understanding of fog formation and thus improved forecasts. Improved fog forecasts require a better understanding of the numerous complex mechanisms during the fog life cycle. During winter 2012/13 a field campaign called ParisFog aiming at fog research took place at SIRTA (Instrumented Site for Atmospheric Remote Sensing Research). SIRTA is located about 20 km southwest of the Paris city center, France, in a semi-urban environment. In situ activation properties of the prevailing fog were investigated by measuring (1) total and interstitial (non-activated) dry particle number size distributions behind two different inlet systems; (2) interstitial hydrated aerosol and fog droplet size distributions at ambient conditions; and (3) cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration at different supersaturations (SS) with a CCN counter. The aerosol particles were characterized regarding their hygroscopic properties, fog droplet activation behavior and contribution to light scattering for 17 developed fog events. Low particle hygroscopicity with an overall median of the hygroscopicity parameter, κ, of 0.14 was found, likely caused by substantial influence from local traffic and wood burning emissions. Measurements of the aerosol size distribution at ambient RH revealed that the critical wet diameter, above which the hydrated aerosols activate to fog droplets, is rather large (with a median value of 2.6μm) and is highly variable (ranging from 1 to 5μm) between the different fog events. Thus, the number of activated fog droplets was very small and the non-activated hydrated particles were found to contribute significantly to the observed light scattering and thus to the reduction in visibility. Combining all experimental data, the effective peak supersaturation, SSpeak, a measure of the peak supersaturation during the fog formation, was determined. The median SSpeak value was estimated to be in the range from 0.031 to 0.046% (upper and lower limit estimations), which is in good agreement with previous experimental and modeling studies of fog.
- ItemModelling winter organic aerosol at the European scale with CAMx: Evaluation and source apportionment with a VBS parameterization based on novel wood burning smog chamber experiments(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2017) Ciarelli, Giancarlo; Aksoyoglu, Sebnem; El Haddad, Imad; Bruns, Emily A.; Crippa, Monica; Poulain, Laurent; Äijälä, Mikko; Carbone, Samara; Freney, Evelyn; O'Dowd, Colin; Baltensperger, Urs; Prévôt, André S. H.We evaluated a modified VBS (volatility basis set) scheme to treat biomass-burning-like organic aerosol (BBOA) implemented in CAMx (Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions). The updated scheme was parameterized with novel wood combustion smog chamber experiments using a hybrid VBS framework which accounts for a mixture of wood burning organic aerosol precursors and their further functionalization and fragmentation in the atmosphere. The new scheme was evaluated for one of the winter EMEP intensive campaigns (February-March 2009) against aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements performed at 11 sites in Europe. We found a considerable improvement for the modelled organic aerosol (OA) mass compared to our previous model application with the mean fractional bias (MFB) reduced from -61 to -29 %. We performed model-based source apportionment studies and compared results against positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis performed on OA AMS data. Both model and observations suggest that OA was mainly of secondary origin at almost all sites. Modelled secondary organic aerosol (SOA) contributions to total OA varied from 32 to 88% (with an average contribution of 62 %) and absolute concentrations were generally under-predicted. Modelled primary hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol (HOA) and primary biomass-burning-like aerosol (BBPOA) fractions contributed to a lesser extent (HOA from 3 to 30 %, and BBPOA from 1 to 39 %) with average contributions of 13 and 25 %, respectively. Modelled BBPOA fractions were found to represent 12 to 64% of the total residential-heating-related OA, with increasing contributions at stations located in the northern part of the domain. Source apportionment studies were performed to assess the contribution of residential and non-residential combustion precursors to the total SOA. Non-residential combustion and road transportation sector contributed about 30-40% to SOA formation (with increasing contributions at urban and near industrialized sites), whereas residential combustion (mainly related to wood burning) contributed to a larger extent, around 60-70 %. Contributions to OA from residential combustion precursors in different volatility ranges were also assessed: our results indicate that residential combustion gas-phase precursors in the semivolatile range (SVOC) contributed from 6 to 30 %, with higher contributions predicted at stations located in the southern part of the domain. On the other hand, the oxidation products of higher-volatility precursors (the sum of intermediate-volatility compounds (IVOCs) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)) contribute from 15 to 38% with no specific gradient among the stations. Although the new parameterization leads to a better agreement between model results and observations, it still underpredicts the SOA fraction, suggesting that uncertainties in the new scheme and other sources and/or formation mechanisms remain to be elucidated. Moreover, a more detailed characterization of the semivolatile components of the emissions is needed.
- ItemMutual promotion between aerosol particle liquid water and particulate nitrate enhancement leads to severe nitrate-dominated particulate matter pollution and low visibility(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Wang, Yu; Chen, Ying; Wu, Zhijun; Shang, Dongjie; Bian, Yuxuan; Du, Zhuofei; Schmitt, Sebastian H.; Su, Rong; Gkatzelis, Georgios I.; Schlag, Patrick; Hohaus, Thorsten; Voliotis, Aristeidis; Lu, Keding; Zeng, Limin; Zhao, Chunsheng; Alfarra, M. Rami; McFiggans, Gordon; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Kiendler-Scharr, Astrid; Zhang, Yuanhang; Hu, MinAs has been the case in North America and western Europe, the SO2 emissions have substantially reduced in the North China Plain (NCP) in recent years. Differential rates of reduction in SO2 and NOx concentrations result in the frequent occurrence of particulate matter pollution dominated by nitrate (pNO−3) over the NCP. In this study, we observed a polluted episode with the particulate nitrate mass fraction in nonrefractory PM1 (NR-PM1) being up to 44 % during wintertime in Beijing. Based on this typical pNO−3-dominated haze event, the linkage between aerosol water uptake and pNO−3 enhancement, further impacting on visibility degradation, has been investigated based on field observations and theoretical calculations. During haze development, as ambient relative humidity (RH) increased from ∼10 % to 70 %, the aerosol particle liquid water increased from ∼1 µg m−3 at the beginning to ∼75 µg m−3 in the fully developed haze period. The aerosol liquid water further increased the aerosol surface area and volume, enhancing the condensational loss of N2O5 over particles. From the beginning to the fully developed haze, the condensational loss of N2O5 increased by a factor of 20 when only considering aerosol surface area and volume of dry particles, while increasing by a factor of 25 when considering extra surface area and volume due to water uptake. Furthermore, aerosol liquid water favored the thermodynamic equilibrium of HNO3 in the particle phase under the supersaturated HNO3 and NH3 in the atmosphere. All the above results demonstrated that pNO−3 is enhanced by aerosol water uptake with elevated ambient RH during haze development, in turn facilitating the aerosol take-up of water due to the hygroscopicity of particulate nitrate salt. Such mutual promotion between aerosol particle liquid water and particulate nitrate enhancement can rapidly degrade air quality and halve visibility within 1 d. Reduction of nitrogen-containing gaseous precursors, e.g., by control of traffic emissions, is essential in mitigating severe haze events in the NCP.
- ItemWintertime aerosol chemical composition and source apportionment of the organic fraction in the metropolitan area of Paris(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2013) Crippa, M.; DeCarlo, P.F.; Slowik, J.G.; Mohr, C.; Heringa, M.F.; Chirico, R.; Poulain, L.; Freutel, F.; Sciare, J.; Cozic, J.; Di Marco, C.F.; Elsasser, M.; Nicolas, B.; Marchand, N.; Abidi, E.; Wiedensohler, A.; Drewnick, F.; Schneider, J.; Borrmann, S.; Nemitz, E.; Zimmermann, R.; Jaffrezo, J.-L.; Prévôt, A.S.H.; Baltensperger, U.The effect of a post-industrial megacity on local and regional air quality was assessed via a month-long field measurement campaign in the Paris metropolitan area during winter 2010. Here we present source apportionment results from three aerosol mass spectrometers and two aethalometers deployed at three measurement stations within the Paris region. Submicron aerosol composition is dominated by the organic fraction (30–36%) and nitrate (28–29%), with lower contributions from sulfate (14–16%), ammonium (12–14%) and black carbon (7–13%). Organic source apportionment was performed using positive matrix factorization, resulting in a set of organic factors corresponding both to primary emission sources and secondary production. The dominant primary sources are traffic (11–15% of organic mass), biomass burning (13–15%) and cooking (up to 35% during meal hours). Secondary organic aerosol contributes more than 50% to the total organic mass and includes a highly oxidized factor from indeterminate and/or diverse sources and a less oxidized factor related to wood burning emissions. Black carbon was apportioned to traffic and wood burning sources using a model based on wavelength-dependent light absorption of these two combustion sources. The time series of organic and black carbon factors from related sources were strongly correlated. The similarities in aerosol composition, total mass and temporal variation between the three sites suggest that particulate pollution in Paris is dominated by regional factors, and that the emissions from Paris itself have a relatively low impact on its surroundings.
- ItemProjections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer, 2013) Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Pardowitz, T.; Pinto, J.G.; Ulbrich, U.; Born, K.; Donat, M.G.; Karremann, M.K.; Leckebusch, G.C.; Ludwig, P.; Nissen, K.M.; Österle, H.; Prahl, B.F.; Werner, P.C.; Befort, D.J.; Burghoff, O.We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971-2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6-35 % for 2011-2040, of 20-30 % for 2041-2070, and of 40-55 % for 2071-2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.
- ItemComparison of storm damage functions and their performance(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2015) Prahl, B.F.; Rybski, D.; Burghoff, O.; Kropp, J.P.