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- ItemCorrecting a fundamental error in greenhouse gas accounting related to bioenergy(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2012) Haberl, H.; Sprinz, D.; Bonazountas, M.; Cocco, P.; Desaubies, Y.; Henze, M.; Hertel, O.; Johnson, R.K.; Kastrup, U.; Laconte, P.; Lange, E.; Novak, P.; Paavola, J.; Reenberg, A.; van den Hove, S.; Vermeire, T.; Wadhams, P.; Searchinger, T.Many international policies encourage a switch from fossil fuels to bioenergy based on the premise that its use would not result in carbon accumulation in the atmosphere. Frequently cited bioenergy goals would at least double the present global human use of plant material, the production of which already requires the dedication of roughly 75% of vegetated lands and more than 70% of water withdrawals. However, burning biomass for energy provision increases the amount of carbon in the air just like burning coal, oil or gas if harvesting the biomass decreases the amount of carbon stored in plants and soils, or reduces carbon sequestration. Neglecting this fact results in an accounting error that could be corrected by considering that only the use of 'additional biomass' - biomass from additional plant growth or biomass that would decompose rapidly if not used for bioenergy - can reduce carbon emissions. Failure to correct this accounting flaw will likely have substantial adverse consequences. The article presents recommendations for correcting greenhouse gas accounts related to bioenergy.
- ItemCombustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet(Washington, DC [u.a.] : Assoc., 2015) Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Ridgwell, Andy; Caldeira, KenThe Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 m in global sea-level rise. We show in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.
- ItemDynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use(Berlin ; Heidelberg ; New York : Springer, 2021) Rolinski, Susanne; Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Guggenberger, Georg; Bischoff, Norbert; Kurganova, Irina; Schierhorn, Florian; Müller, Daniel; Müller, ChristophChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.
- ItemSolar energy policy implementation in Ghana: A LEAP model analysis([Amsterdam] : Elsevier B.V., 2022) Amo-Aidoo, A.; Kumi, E.N.; Hensel, O.; Korese, J.K.; Sturm, B.Current global climate change mitigation programs have been unable to meet the Paris Agreement's targets, and Ghana's situation is no exception. There is, therefore, an increased need for intensification of renewable energy deployment programs with an emphasis on solar energy as it constitutes about 90% of Ghana's installed renewable energy generation capacity. The study demonstrates how appropriate renewable energy policy can drive solar energy development in Ghana. Electricity demand scenarios were developed using historical data from 2000 to 2018, after which projections were made up to 2030 based on the average year-on-year electricity growth rate. Of the three electricity demand categories, residential demand experienced a steeper growth rate in comparison with the special load tariff, non-residential, and street lighting sectors. On the supply side, low, moderate, and visionary supply scenarios had increased solar penetration of 5 %, 10 %, and 15 % of the installed generation capacity respectively. While appreciable gains were made in the low and moderate supply scenarios, the visionary supply scenario could meet the renewable energy target with solar energy by 2030; leading to universal access to electricity while offsetting over 13 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide in the process.