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- ItemLong‐Term Changes in the Northern Midwinter Middle Atmosphere in Relation to the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2019) Gabriel, A.Long-term changes in the middle atmosphere due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are examined in relation to the effect of the equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the northern midwinter circulation. The examinations are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations for 1979–2100 with the Earth-System-Model MPI-ESM-MR that generates the QBO internally. In particular, the three-dimensional residual circulation is used as proxy for the Brewer-Dobson circulation, revealing an increasing downwelling in the center of the polar low over Northern Europe/Siberia (~5% per decade). The changes in northern midwinter temperature, zonal wind, and residual circulation are much stronger during westerly (QBO-W) than easterly (QBO-E) phase of QBO (e.g., for a moderate increase in greenhouse gases, we find maximum decreases in the zonal mean westerly jet at 60°N and 3 hPa of about −14.8 ± 5.4 m/s for QBO-W but only −4.7 ± 5.2 m/s for QBO-E). This is due to a change of the extratropical QBO-W signature toward QBO-E signature while the equatorial QBO remains nearly unchanged (i.e., a change toward disappearance of the so-called Holton-Tan relationship). Similar to the current change from QBO-W to QBO-E signature, the changes during QBO-W include an increase in amplitude and eastward shift in phase of stratospheric stationary Wave 1 at the cost of Wave 2, with decreasing westerlies over North America and increasing downwelling over Siberia. The eastward shift in phase of stationary Wave 1 is related to the associated increase in meridional transport of planetary vorticity. © 2019. The Authors.
- ItemFour-Dimensional Quantification of Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities in the Polar SummerMesosphere Using Volumetric Radar Imaging(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2020) Chau, J.L.; Urco, J.M.; Avsarkisov, V.; Vierinen, J.P.; Latteck, R.; Hall, C.M.; Tsutsumi, M.We present and characterize in time and three spatial dimensions a Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability (KHI) event from polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSE) observed with the Middle Atmosphere Alomar Radar System. We use a newly developed radar imaging mode, which observed PMSE intensity and line of sight velocity with high temporal and angular resolution. The identified KHI event occurs in a narrow layer of 2.4 km thickness centered at 85 km altitude, is elongated along north-south direction, presents separation between billows of ~ 8 km in the east-west direction, and its billow width is ~ 3 km. The accompanying vertical gradients of the horizontal wind are between 35 and 45 m/s/km and vertical velocities inside the billows are ± 12 m/s. Based on the estimated Richardson (< 0.25), horizontal Froude ( ~ 0.8), and buoyancy Reynolds ( ~ 2.5 × 10 4) numbers, the observed event is a KHI that occurs under weak stratification and generates strong turbulence. © 2019. The Authors.
- ItemQuasi‐10‐Day Wave and Semidiurnal Tide Nonlinear Interactions During the Southern Hemispheric SSW 2019 Observed in the Northern Hemispheric Mesosphere(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2020) He, Maosheng; Chau, Jorge L.; Forbes, Jeffrey M.; Thorsen, Denise; Li, Guozhu; Siddiqui, Tarique Adnan; Yamazaki, Yosuke; Hocking, Wayne K.Mesospheric winds from three longitudinal sectors at 65°N and 54°N latitude are combined to diagnose the zonal wave numbers (m) of spectral wave signatures during the Southern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) 2019. Diagnosed are quasi-10- and 6-day planetary waves (Q10DW and Q6DW, m = 1), solar semidiurnal tides with m = 1, 2, 3 (SW1, SW2, and SW3), lunar semidiurnal tide, and the upper and lower sidebands (USB and LSB, m = 1 and 3) of Q10DW-SW2 nonlinear interactions. We further present 7-year composite analyses to distinguish SSW effects from climatological features. Before (after) the SSW onset, LSB (USB) enhances, accompanied by the enhancing (fading) Q10DW, and a weakening of climatological SW2 maximum. These behaviors are explained in terms of Manley-Rowe relation, that is, the energy goes first from SW2 to Q10DW and LSB, and then from SW2 and Q10DW to USB. Our results illustrate that the interactions can explain most wind variabilities associated with the SSW. © 2020. The Authors.
- ItemThe biosphere under potential Paris outcomes(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2018) Ostberg, Sebastian; Boysen, Lena R.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Lucht, Wolfgang; Gerten, DieterRapid economic and population growth over the last centuries have started to push the Earth out of its Holocene state into the Anthropocene. In this new era, ecosystems across the globe face mounting dual pressure from human land use change (LUC) and climate change (CC). With the Paris Agreement, the international community has committed to holding global warming below 2°C above preindustrial levels, yet current pledges by countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions appear insufficient to achieve that goal. At the same time, the sustainable development goals strive to reduce inequalities between countries and provide sufficient food, feed, and clean energy to a growing world population likely to reach more than 9 billion by 2050. Here, we present a macro‐scale analysis of the projected impacts of both CC and LUC on the terrestrial biosphere over the 21st century using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to illustrate possible trajectories following the Paris Agreement. We find that CC may cause major impacts in landscapes covering between 16% and 65% of the global ice‐free land surface by the end of the century, depending on the success or failure of achieving the Paris goal. Accounting for LUC impacts in addition, this number increases to 38%–80%. Thus, CC will likely replace LUC as the major driver of ecosystem change unless global warming can be limited to well below 2°C. We also find a substantial risk that impacts of agricultural expansion may offset some of the benefits of ambitious climate protection for ecosystems.
- ItemA systematic study of sustainable development goal (SDG) interactions(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2017) Pradhan, Prajal; Costa, Luís; Rybski, Diego; Lucht, Wolfgang; Kropp, Jürgen P.Sustainable development goals (SDGs) have set the 2030 agenda to transform our world by tackling multiple challenges humankind is facing to ensure well‐being, economic prosperity, and environmental protection. In contrast to conventional development agendas focusing on a restricted set of dimensions, the SDGs provide a holistic and multidimensional view on development. Hence, interactions among the SDGs may cause diverging results. To analyze the SDG interactions we systematize the identification of synergies and trade‐offs using official SDG indicator data for 227 countries. A significant positive correlation between a pair of SDG indicators is classified as a synergy while a significant negative correlation is classified as a trade‐off. We rank synergies and trade‐offs between SDGs pairs on global and country scales in order to identify the most frequent SDG interactions. For a given SDG, positive correlations between indicator pairs were found to outweigh the negative ones in most countries. Among SDGs the positive and negative correlations between indicator pairs allowed for the identification of particular global patterns. SDG 1 (No poverty) has synergetic relationship with most of the other goals, whereas SDG 12 (Responsible consumption and production) is the goal most commonly associated with trade‐offs. The attainment of the SDG agenda will greatly depend on whether the identified synergies among the goals can be leveraged. In addition, the highlighted trade‐offs, which constitute obstacles in achieving the SDGs, need to be negotiated and made structurally nonobstructive by deeper changes in the current strategies.
- ItemCharacteristics of the Quiet-Time Hot Spot GravityWaves Observed by GOCE Over the Southern Andes on 5 July 2010(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2019) Vadas, Sharon L.; Xu, Shuang; Yue, Jia; Bossert, Katrina; Becker, Erich; Baumgarten, GerdWe analyze quiet-time data from the Gravity Field and Ocean Circulation Explorer satellite as it overpassed the Southern Andes at z≃275 km on 5 July 2010 at 23 UT. We extract the 20 largest traveling atmospheric disturbances from the density perturbations and cross-track winds using Fourier analysis. Using gravity wave (GW) dissipative theory that includes realistic molecular viscosity, we search parameter space to determine which hot spot traveling atmospheric disturbances are GWs. This results in the identification of 17 GWs having horizontal wavelengths λH = 170–1,850 km, intrinsic periods τIr = 11–54 min, intrinsic horizontal phase speeds cIH = 245–630 m/s, and density perturbations (Formula presented.) 0.03–7%. We unambiguously determine the propagation direction for 11 of these GWs and find that most had large meridional components to their propagation directions. Using reverse ray tracing, we find that 10 of these GWs must have been created in the mesosphere or thermosphere. We show that mountain waves (MWs) were observed in the stratosphere earlier that day and that these MWs saturated at z∼ 70–75 km from convective instability. We suggest that these 10 Gravity Field and Ocean Circulation Explorer hot spot GWs are likely tertiary (or higher-order) GWs created from the dissipation of secondary GWs excited by the local body forces created from MW breaking. We suggest that the other GW is likely a secondary or tertiary (or higher-order) GW. This study strongly suggests that the hot spot GWs over the Southern Andes in the quiet-time middle winter thermosphere cannot be successfully modeled by conventional global circulation models where GWs are parameterized and launched in the troposphere or stratosphere. ©2019. The Authors.
- ItemHigh-Order Solar Migrating Tides Quench at SSW Onsets(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2020) He, Maosheng; Forbes, Jeffrey M.; Chau, Jorge L.; Li, Guozhu; Wan, Weixing; Korotyshkin, Dmitry V.Sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs) are the most spectacular atmospheric vertical coupling processes, well-known for being associated with diverse wave activities in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. The first four solar tidal harmonics have been reported as being engaged. Here, combining mesospheric winds detected by three midlatitude radars, we demonstrate at least the first six harmonics that occurred during SSW 2018. Wave number diagnosis demonstrates that all six harmonics are dominated by migrating components. Wavelet analyses reveal that the fourth, fifth, and sixth harmonics quench after the SSW onset. The six harmonics and the quenching appear also in a statistical analysis based on near-12-year observations from one of the radars. We attribute the quenching to reversal of the background eastward wind. ©2020. The Authors.
- ItemPMC Turbo : Studying Gravity Wave and Instability Dynamics in the Summer Mesosphere Using Polar Mesospheric Cloud Imaging and Profiling From a Stratospheric Balloon(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2019) Fritts, David C.; Miller, Amber D.; Kjellstrand, C. Bjorn; Geach, Christopher; Williams, Bifford P.; Kaifler, Bernd; Kaifler, Natalie; Jones, Glenn; Rapp, Markus; Limon, Michele; Reimuller, Jason; Wang, Ling; Hanany, Shaul; Gisinger, Sonja; Zhao, Yucheng; Stober, Gunter; Randall, Cora E.The Polar Mesospheric Cloud Turbulence (PMC Turbo) experiment was designed to observe and quantify the dynamics of small-scale gravity waves (GWs) and instabilities leading to turbulence in the upper mesosphere during polar summer using instruments aboard a stratospheric balloon. The PMC Turbo scientific payload comprised seven high-resolution cameras and a Rayleigh lidar. Overlapping wide and narrow camera field of views from the balloon altitude of ~38 km enabled resolution of features extending from ~20 m to ~100 km at the PMC layer altitude of ~82 km. The Rayleigh lidar provided profiles of temperature below the PMC altitudes and of the PMCs throughout the flight. PMCs were imaged during an ~5.9-day flight from Esrange, Sweden, to Northern Canada in July 2018. These data reveal sensitivity of the PMCs and the dynamics driving their structure and variability to tropospheric weather and larger-scale GWs and tides at the PMC altitudes. Initial results reveal strong modulation of PMC presence and brightness by larger-scale waves, significant variability in the occurrence of GWs and instability dynamics on time scales of hours, and a diversity of small-scale dynamics leading to instabilities and turbulence at smaller scales. At multiple times, the overall field of view was dominated by extensive and nearly continuous GWs and instabilities at horizontal scales from ~2 to 100 km, suggesting sustained turbulence generation and persistence. At other times, GWs were less pronounced and instabilities were localized and/or weaker, but not absent. An overview of the PMC Turbo experiment motivations, scientific goals, and initial results is presented here. © 2019. The Authors.
- ItemMiddle- and High-Latitude Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Mean Winds and Tides in Response to Strong Polar-Night Jet Oscillations(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2019) Conte, J. Federico; Chau, Jorge L.; Peters, Dieter H.W.The dynamical behavior of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region during strongly disturbed wintertime conditions commonly known as polar-night jet oscillations (PJOs) is described in detail and compared to other wintertime conditions. For this purpose, wind measurements provided by two specular meteor radars located at Andenes (69°N, 16°E) and Juliusruh (54°N, 13°E) are used to estimate horizontal mean winds and tides as an observational basis. Winds and tidal main features are analyzed and compared for three different cases: major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) with (a) strong PJO event, (b) non-PJO event, and (c) no major SSWs. We show that the distinction into strong PJOs, non-PJOs, and winters with no major SSWs is better suited to identify differences in the behavior of the mean winds and tides during the boreal winter. To assess the impact of the stratospheric disturbed conditions on the MLT region, we investigate the 30-year nudged simulation by the Extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. Analysis of geopotential height disturbances suggests that changes in the location of the polar vortex at mesospheric heights are responsible for the jets observed in the MLT mean winds during strong PJOs, which in turn influence the evolution of semidiurnal tides by increasing or decreasing their amplitudes depending on the tidal component. © 2019. The Authors.
- ItemThe Meteoric Ni Layer in the Upper Atmosphere(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2020) Daly, Shane M.; Feng, Wuhu; Mangan, Thomas P.; Gerding, Michael; Plane, John M.C.The first global atmospheric model of Ni (WACCM-Ni) has been developed to understand recent observations of the mesospheric Ni layer by ground-based resonance lidars. The three components of the model are: the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model (WACCM6); a meteoric input function derived by coupling an astronomical model of dust sources in the solar system with a chemical meteoric ablation model; and a comprehensive set of neutral, ion-molecule, and photochemical reactions pertinent to the chemistry of Ni in the upper atmosphere. In order to achieve closure on the chemistry, the reaction kinetics of three important reactions were first studied using a fast flow tube with pulsed laser ablation of a Ni target, yielding k(NiO + O) = (4.6 ± 1.4) × 10−11, k(NiO + CO) = (3.0 ± 0.5) × 10−11, and k(NiO2 + O) = (2.5 ± 1.2) × 10−11 cm3 molecule−1 s−1 at 294 K. The photodissociation rate of NiOH was computed to be J(NiOH) = 0.02 s−1. WACCM-Ni simulates satisfactorily the observed neutral Ni layer peak height and width, and Ni+ measurements from rocket-borne mass spectrometry. The Ni layer is predicted to have a similar seasonal and latitudinal variation as the Fe layer, and its unusually broad bottom-side compared with Fe is caused by the relatively fast NiO + CO reaction. The quantum yield for photon emission from the Ni + O3 reaction, observed in the nightglow, is estimated to be between 6% and 40%. ©2020. The Authors.