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- ItemSustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Are we successful in turning trade-offs into synergies?(Basingstoke, Hampshire : Palgrave Macmillan, 2019) Kroll, Christian; Warchold, Anne; Pradhan, PrajalThe Agenda 2030 with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provides the framework that all United Nations (UN) member states have pledged to fulfill. The achievement of this agenda crucially depends on whether humankind will be able to maximize synergies and resolve existing trade-offs between the SDGs. We provide the first analysis of future interactions for projected SDG trends until 2030 within and between goals, and we analyze how trade-offs and synergies have evolved in the recent past globally. For certain goals, we find positive developments with notable synergies in our projections, especially for SDGs 1, 3, 7, 8, and 9: Poverty alleviation and strengthening the economy, rooted in innovation, and modern infrastructure, therefore continue to be the basis upon which many of the other SDGs can be achieved. However, especially SDGs 11, 13, 14, 16, and 17 will continue to have notable trade-offs, as well as non-associations with the other goals in the future, which emphasizes the need to foster innovations and policies that can make our cities and communities more sustainable, as well as strengthen institutions and spur climate action. We show examples of a successful transformation of trade-offs into synergies that should be emulated in other areas to create a virtuous cycle of SDG progress. The alarming inability to overcome certain persistent trade-offs we have found, and indeed the deterioration for some SDGs, can seriously threaten the achievement of the Agenda 2030.
- ItemAdaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2019) Radchuk, Viktoriia; Reed, Thomas; Teplitsky, Céline; van de Pol, Martijn; Charmantier, Anne; Hassall, Christopher; Adamík, Peter; Adriaensen, Frank; Ahola, Markus P.; Arcese, Peter; Avilés, Jesús Miguel; Balbontin, Javier; Berg, Karl S.; Borras, Antoni; Burthe, Sarah; Clobert, Jean; Dehnhard, Nina; de Lope, Florentino; Dhondt, André A.; Dingemanse, Niels J.; Doi, Hideyuki; Eeva, Tapio; Fickel, Joerns; Filella, Iolanda; Fossøy, Frode; Goodenough, Anne E.; Hall, Stephen J. G.; Hansson, Bengt; Harris, Michael; Hasselquist, Dennis; Hickler, Thomas; Joshi, Jasmin; Kharouba, Heather; Martínez, Juan Gabriel; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Mills, James A.; Molina-Morales, Mercedes; Moksnes, Arne; Ozgul, Arpat; Parejo, Deseada; Pilard, Philippe; Poisbleau, Maud; Rousset, Francois; Rödel, Mark-Oliver; Scott, David; Senar, Juan Carlos; Stefanescu, Constanti; Stokke, Bård G.; Kusano, Tamotsu; Tarka, Maja; Tarwater, Corey E.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Thorley, Jack; Wilting, Andreas; Tryjanowski, Piotr; Merilä, Juha; Sheldon, Ben C.; Pape Møller, Anders; Matthysen, Erik; Janzen, Fredric; Dobson, F. Stephen; Visser, Marcel E.; Beissinger, Steven R.; Courtiol, Alexandre; Kramer-Schadt, StephanieBiological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species. © 2019, The Author(s).
- ItemDeterminants of barley grain yield in drought-prone Mediterranean environments(Pavia : PAGEPress, 2013) Francia, E.; Tondelli, A.; Rizza, F.; Badeck, F.W.; Thomas, W.T.B.; van Eeuwijk, F.; Romagosa, I.; Michele, Stanca, A.; Pecchioni, N.The determinants of barley grain yield in drought-prone Mediterranean environments have been studied in the Nure x Tremois (NT) population. A large set of yield and other morpho-physiological data were recorded in 118 doubled haploid (DH) lines of the population, in multi-environment field trials (18 site-year combination). Agrometeorological variables have been recorded and calculated at each site too. Four main periods of barley development were considered, vegetative, reproductive early and late grain filling phases, to dissect the effect on yield traits of the growth phases. Relationships between agrometeorological variables, grain yield (GY) and its main components (GN and GW) were also investigated by correlation. Results firstly gave a clear indication of the involvement of water consumption in determining GY and GW (r2=0.616, P=0.007 and r2=0.703, P=0.005, respectively) calculated from sowing to the early grain filling period, while GN showed its highest correlation with the total photothermal quotient (PQ) calculated for the same period (r2=0.646, P=0.013). With the only exception of total PQ calculated during the vegetative period, all significant correlations with GY were associated to water-dependent agrometeorological parameters. As a second result, the NT segregating population allowed us to weight the amount of interaction due to genotypes over environments or to environments in relation to genotypes by a GGE analysis; 47.67% of G+GE sum of squares was explained by the first two principal components. Then, the introduction of genomic information at major barley genes regulating the length of growth cycle allowed us to explain patterns of adaptation of different groups of NT lines according to the variants (alleles) harbored at venalization (Vrn-H1) in combination with earliness (Eam6) genes. The superiority of the lines carrying the Nure allele at Eam6 was confirmed by factorial ANOVA testing the four possible haplotypes obtained combining alternative alleles at Eam6 and Vrn-H1. Maximum yield potential and differentials among the NT genotypes was finally explored through Finlay-Wilkinson model to interpret grain yield of NT genotypes together with yield adaptability (Ya), as the regression coefficient bi; Ya ranged from 0.71 for NT77 to 1.20 for NT19. Lines simply harboring the Nure variants at the two genes behaved as highest yielding (3.04 t ha-1), and showed the highest yield adaptability (bi=1.05). The present study constitutes a starting point towards the introduction of genomic variables in agronomic models for barley grain yield in Mediterranean environments.
- ItemThe role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation—implications for communications with European forest professionals(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2020) Blennow, K.; Persson, J.; Gonçalves, L.M.S.; Borys, A.; Dutcă, I.; Hynynen, J.; Janeczko, E.; Lyubenova, M.; Merganič, J.; Merganičová, K.; Peltoniemi, M.; Petr, M.; Reboredo, F.; Vacchiano, G.; Reyer, C.P.O.Beliefs, expectations and values are often assumed to drive decisions about climate change adaptation. We tested hypotheses based on this assumption using survey responses from 508 European forest professionals in ten countries. We used the survey results to identify communication needs and the decision strategies at play, and to develop guidelines on adequate communications about climate change adaptation. We observed polarization in the positive and negative values associated with climate change impacts accepted by survey respondents. We identified a mechanism creating the polarization that we call the 'blocked belief' effect. We found that polarized values did not correlate with decisions about climate change adaptation. Strong belief in the local impacts of climate change on the forest was, however, a prerequisite of decision-making favoring adaptation. Decision-making in favor of adaptation to climate change also correlated with net values of expected specific impacts on the forest and generally increased with the absolute value of these in the absence of 'tipping point' behavior. Tipping point behavior occurs when adaptation is not pursued in spite of the strongly negative or positive net value of expected climate change impacts. We observed negative and positive tipping point behavior, mainly in SW Europe and N-NE Europe, respectively. In addition we found that advice on effective adaptation may inhibit adaptation when the receiver is aware of effective adaptation measures unless it is balanced with information explaining how climate change leads to negative impacts. Forest professionals with weak expectations of impacts require communications on climate change and its impacts on forests before any advice on adaptation measures can be effective. We develop evidence-based guidelines on communications using a new methodology which includes Bayesian machine learning modeling of the equivalent of an expected utility function for the adaptation decision problem.
- ItemA vital link: Water and vegetation in the anthropocene(Chichester : John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2013) Gerten, D.This paper argues that the interplay of water, carbon and vegetation dynamics fundamentally links some global trends in the current and conceivable future Anthropocene, such as cropland expansion, freshwater use, and climate change and its impacts. Based on a review of recent literature including geographically explicit simulation studies with the process-based LPJmL global biosphere model, it demonstrates that the connectivity of water and vegetation dynamics is vital for water security, food security and (terrestrial) ecosystem dynamics alike. The water limitation of net primary production of both natural and agricultural plants - already pronounced in many regions - is shown to increase in many places under projected climate change, though this development is partially offset by water-saving direct CO2 effects. Natural vegetation can to some degree adapt dynamically to higher water limitation, but agricultural crops usually require some form of active management to overcome it - among them irrigation, soil conservation and eventually shifts of cropland to areas that are less water-limited due to more favourable climatic conditions. While crucial to secure food production for a growing world population, such human interventions in water-vegetation systems have, as also shown, repercussions on the water cycle. Indeed, land use changes are shown to be the second-most important influence on the terrestrial water balance in recent times. Furthermore, climate change (warming and precipitation changes) will in many regions increase irrigation demand and decrease water availability, impeding rainfed and irrigated food production (if not CO2 effects counterbalance this impact - which is unlikely at least in poorly managed systems). Drawing from these exemplary investigations, some research perspectives on how to further improve our knowledge of human-water-vegetation interactions in the Anthropocene are outlined.
- ItemGlobal Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley-Blackwell, 2019) Minoli, Sara; Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Ruane, Alex C.; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Zabel, Florian; Dury, Marie; Folberth, Christian; François, Louis; Hank, Tobias; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Liu, Wenfeng; Olin, Stefan; Pugh, Thomas A.M.Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology, growth, and evapotranspiration. However, future projections typically do not consider the effects of agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops under increasing temperature up to 6 K, accounting for model uncertainty. We find that without adaptation, the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten the growing period and to reduce grain yields and production. We then test the potential of two agronomic measures to combat warming-induced yield reduction: (i) use of cultivars with adjusted phenology to regain the reference growing period duration and (ii) conversion of rainfed systems to irrigated ones in order to alleviate the negative temperature effects that are mediated by crop evapotranspiration. We find that cultivar adaptation can fully compensate global production losses up to 2 K of temperature increase, with larger potentials in continental and temperate regions. Irrigation could also compensate production losses, but its potential is highest in arid regions, where irrigation expansion would be constrained by water scarcity. Moreover, we discuss that irrigation is not a true adaptation measure but rather an intensification strategy, as it equally increases production under any temperature level. In the tropics, even when introducing both adapted cultivars and irrigation, crop production declines already at moderate warming, making adaptation particularly challenging in these areas. ©2019. The Authors.
- ItemProteomic Changes of Tissue-Tolerable Plasma Treated Airway Epithelial Cells and Their Relation to Wound Healing(New York [u.a.] : Hindawi, 2015) Lendeckel, Derik; Eymann, Christine; Emicke, Philipp; Daeschlein, Georg; Darm, Katrin; O'Neil, Serena; Beule, Achim G; von Woedtke, Thomas; Völker, Uwe; Weltmann, Klaus-Dieter; Jünger, Michael; Hosemann, Werner; Scharf, ChristianBackground. The worldwide increasing number of patients suffering from nonhealing wounds requires the development of new safe strategies for wound repair. Recent studies suggest the possibility of nonthermal (cold) plasma application for the acceleration of wound closure. Methods. An in vitro wound healing model with upper airway S9 epithelial cells was established to determine the macroscopically optimal dosage of tissue-tolerable plasma (TTP) for wound regeneration, while a 2D-difference gel electrophoresis (2D-DIGE) approach was used to quantify the proteomic changes in a hypothesis-free manner and to evaluate the balance of beneficial and adverse effects due to TTP application. Results. Plasma doses from 30 s up to 360 s were tested in relation to wound closure after 24 h, 48 h, 72 h, 96 h, and 120 h, in which lower doses (30, 60, and 120 s) resulted in dose-dependent improved wound healing rate compared to untreated cells. Thereby, the 120 s dose caused significantly the best wound healing properties after 96 and 120 h. The proteome analysis combined with IPA revealed that a lot of affected stress adaptation responses are linked to oxidative stress response emphasizing oxidative stress as a possible key event in the regeneration process of epithelial cells as well as in the adaptation to plasma exposure. Further cellular and molecular functions like proliferation and apoptosis were significantly up- or downregulated by all TTP treatments but mostly by the 120 s dose. Conclusions. For the first time, we were able to show plasma effects on cellular adaptation of upper airway epithelial S9 cells improving wound healing. This is of particular interest for plasma application, for example, in the surgery field of otorhinolaryngology or internal medicine.
- ItemComparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2018) van Meijl, Hans; Havlik, Petr; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Stehfest, Elke; Witzke, Peter; Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; van Dijk, Michiel; Doelman, Jonathan; Fellmann, Thomas; Humpenöder, Florian; Koopman, Jason F. L.; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; van Zeist, Willem-JanSystematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 °C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-à-vis comparison of climate change impacts relative to the impact of mitigation measures. In addition, our scenario design allows assessing the impact of the residual climate change on the mitigation challenge. From a global perspective, the impact of climate change on agricultural production by mid-century is negative but small. A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2 °C target are put in place. Our results indicate that a mitigation strategy that embeds residual climate change effects (RCP2.6) has a negative impact on global agricultural production relative to a no-mitigation strategy with stronger climate impacts (RCP6.0). However, this is partially due to the limited impact of the climate change scenarios by 2050. The magnitude of price changes is different amongst models due to methodological differences. Further research to achieve a better harmonization is needed, especially regarding endogenous food and feed demand, including substitution across individual commodities, and endogenous technological change.
- ItemMemory and adaptive behaviour in population dynamics: Anti-predator behaviour as a case study(Berlin : Weierstraß-Institut für Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik, 2015) Pimenov, Alexander; Kelly, Thomas C.; Korobeinikov, Andrei; OCallaghan, Michael J.; Rachinskii, DmitriiMemory enables to forecast future on the basis of experience, and thus, in some form, is principally important for the development of flexible adaptive behaviour by animal communities. To model memory, in this paper we use the concept of hysteresis, which mathematically is described by the Preisach operator. As case study, we consider anti-predator adaptation in the classic Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model. Despite its simplicity, the model allows to naturally incorporate essential features of an adaptive system and memory. Our analysis and simulations show that a system with memory can have a continuum of equilibrium states with non-trivial stability properties.
- ItemAuditory cortex modelled as a dynamical network of oscillators: Understanding event-related fields and their adaptation(Berlin : Weierstraß-Institut für Angewandte Analysis und Stochastik, 2021) Hajizadeh, Aida; Matysiak, Artur; Wolfrum, Matthias; May, Patrick J. C.Adaptation, the reduction of neuronal responses by repetitive stimulation, is a ubiquitous feature of auditory cortex (AC). It is not clear what causes adaptation, but short-term synaptic depression (STSD) is a potential candidate for the underlying mechanism. We examined this hypothesis via a computational model based on AC anatomy, which includes serially connected core, belt, and parabelt areas. The model replicates the event-related field (ERF) of the magnetoencephalogram as well as ERF adaptation. The model dynamics are described by excitatory and inhibitory state variables of cell populations, with the excitatory connections modulated by STSD. We analysed the system dynamics by linearizing the firing rates and solving the STSD equation using time-scale separation. This allows for characterization of AC dynamics as a superposition of damped harmonic oscillators, so-called normal modes. We show that repetition suppression of the N1m is due to a mixture of causes, with stimulus repetition modifying both the amplitudes and the frequencies of the normal modes. In this view, adaptation results from a complete reorganization of AC dynamics rather than a reduction of activity in discrete sources. Further, both the network structure and the balance between excitation and inhibition contribute significantly to the rate with which AC recovers from adaptation. This lifetime of adaptation is longer in the belt and parabelt than in the core area, despite the time constants of STSD being spatially constant. Finally, we critically evaluate the use of a single exponential function to describe recovery from adaptation.