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- ItemImpact of temperature and precipitation extremes on the flowering dates of four German wildlife shrub species(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Siegmund, Jonatan F.; Wiedermann, Marc; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.Ongoing climate change is known to cause an increase in the frequency and amplitude of local temperature and precipitation extremes in many regions of the Earth. While gradual changes in the climatological conditions have already been shown to strongly influence plant flowering dates, the question arises if and how extremes specifically impact the timing of this important phenological phase. Studying this question calls for the application of statistical methods that are tailored to the specific properties of event time series. Here, we employ event coincidence analysis, a novel statistical tool that allows assessing whether or not two types of events exhibit similar sequences of occurrences in order to systematically quantify simultaneities between meteorological extremes and the timing of the flowering of four shrub species across Germany. Our study confirms previous findings of experimental studies by highlighting the impact of early spring temperatures on the flowering of the investigated plants. However, previous studies solely based on correlation analysis do not allow deriving explicit estimates of the strength of such interdependencies without further assumptions, a gap that is closed by our analysis. In addition to direct impacts of extremely warm and cold spring temperatures, our analysis reveals statistically significant indications of an influence of temperature extremes in the autumn preceding the flowering.
- ItemComprehensive assessment of meteorological conditions and airflow connectivity during HCCT-2010(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Tilgner, A.; Schöne, L.; Bräuer, P.; van Pinxteren, D.; Hoffmann, E.; Spindler, G.; Styler, S.A.; Mertes, S.; Birmili, W.; Otto, R.; Merkel, M.; Weinhold, K.; Wiedensohler, A.; Deneke, H.; Schrödner, R.; Wolke, R.; Schneider, J.; Haunold, W.; Engel, A.; Wéber, A.; Herrmann, H.This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the meteorological conditions and atmospheric flow during the Lagrangian-type "Hill Cap Cloud Thuringia 2010" experiment (HCCT-2010), which was performed in September and October 2010 at Mt. Schmücke in the Thuringian Forest, Germany and which used observations at three measurement sites (upwind, in-cloud, and downwind) to study physical and chemical aerosol–cloud interactions. A Lagrangian-type hill cap cloud experiment requires not only suitable cloud conditions but also connected airflow conditions (i.e. representative air masses at the different measurement sites). The primary goal of the present study was to identify time periods during the 6-week duration of the experiment in which these conditions were fulfilled and therefore which are suitable for use in further data examinations. The following topics were studied in detail: (i) the general synoptic weather situations, including the mesoscale flow conditions, (ii) local meteorological conditions and (iii) local flow conditions. The latter were investigated by means of statistical analyses using best-available quasi-inert tracers, SF6 tracer experiments in the experiment area, and regional modelling. This study represents the first application of comprehensive analyses using statistical measures such as the coefficient of divergence (COD) and the cross-correlation in the context of a Lagrangian-type hill cap cloud experiment. This comprehensive examination of local flow connectivity yielded a total of 14 full-cloud events (FCEs), which are defined as periods during which all connected flow and cloud criteria for a suitable Lagrangian-type experiment were fulfilled, and 15 non-cloud events (NCEs), which are defined as periods with connected flow but no cloud at the summit site, and which can be used as reference cases. The overall evaluation of the identified FCEs provides the basis for subsequent investigations of the measured chemical and physical data during HCCT-2010 (see https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/special_issue287.html).
- ItemExperimental assessment of a micro-pulse lidar system in comparison with reference lidar measurements for aerosol optical properties retrieval(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geosciences Union, 2021) Córdoba-Jabonero, Carmen; Ansmann, Albert; Jiménez, Cristofer; Baars, Holger; López-Cayuela, María-Ángeles; Engelmann, RonnySimultaneous observations of a polarized micro-pulse lidar (P-MPL) system and two reference European Aerosol Research Lidar Network lidars running at the Leipzig site Germany, 51.4g gN, 12.4g gE; 125gmga.s.l.) were performed during a comprehensive 2-month field intercomparison campaign in summer 2019. An experimental assessment regarding both the overlap (OVP) correction of the P-MPL signal profiles and the volume linear depolarization ratio (VLDR) analysis, together with its impact on the retrieval of the aerosol optical properties, is achieved; the experimental procedure used is also described. The optimal lidar-specific OVP function is experimentally determined, highlighting that the one delivered by the P-MPL manufacturer cannot be used long. Among the OVP functions examined, the averaged function between those obtained from the comparison of the P-MPL observations with those of the other two reference lidars seems to be the best proxy at both near- and far-field ranges. In addition, the impact of the OVP function on the accuracy of the retrieved profiles of the total particle backscatter coefficient (PBC) and the particle linear depolarization ratio (PLDR) is examined. The VLDR profile is obtained and compared with that derived from the reference lidar, showing that it needs to be corrected by a small offset value with good accuracy. Once P-MPL measurements are optimally (OVP, VLDR) corrected, both the PBC and PLDR profiles can be accurately derived and are in good agreement with reference aerosol retrievals. Overall, as a systematic requirement for lidar systems, an adequate OVP function determination and VLDR testing analysis needs to be performed on a regular basis to correct the P-MPL measurements in order to derive suitable aerosol products. A dust event observed in Leipzig in June 2019 is used for illustration.
- ItemAn assessment of aerosol optical properties from remote-sensing observations and regional chemistry-climate coupled models over Europe(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2018) Palacios-Peña, Laura; Baró, Rocío; Baklanov, Alexander; Balzarini, Alessandra; Brunner, Dominik; Forkel, Renate; Hirtl, Marcus; Honzak, Luka; López-Romero, José María; Montávez, Juan Pedro; Pérez, Juan Luis; Pirovano, Guido; San José, Roberto; Schröder, Wolfram; Werhahn, Johannes; Wolke, Ralf; Žabkar, Rahela; Jiménez-Guerrero, PedroAtmospheric aerosols modify the radiative budget of the Earth due to their optical, microphysical and chemical properties, and are considered one of the most uncertain climate forcing agents. In order to characterise the uncertainties associated with satellite and modelling approaches to represent aerosol optical properties, mainly aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Ångström exponent (AE), their representation by different remote-sensing sensors and regional online coupled chemistry-climate models over Europe are evaluated. This work also characterises whether the inclusion of aerosol-radiation (ARI) or/and aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) help improve the skills of modelling outputs. Two case studies were selected within the EuMetChem COST Action ES1004 framework when important aerosol episodes in 2010 all over Europe took place: a Russian wildfire episode and a Saharan desert dust outbreak that covered most of the Mediterranean Sea. The model data came from different regional air-quality-climate simulations performed by working group 2 of EuMetChem, which differed according to whether ARI or ACI was included or not. The remote-sensing data came from three different sensors: MODIS, OMI and SeaWIFS. The evaluation used classical statistical metrics to first compare satellite data versus the ground-based instrument network (AERONET) and then to evaluate model versus the observational data (both satellite and ground-based data). Regarding the uncertainty in the satellite representation of AOD, MODIS presented the best agreement with the AERONET observations compared to other satellite AOD observations. The differences found between remote-sensing sensors highlighted the uncertainty in the observations, which have to be taken into account when evaluating models. When modelling results were considered, a common trend for underestimating high AOD levels was observed. For the AE, models tended to underestimate its variability, except when considering a sectional approach in the aerosol representation. The modelling results showed better skills when ARI+ACI interactions were included; hence this improvement in the representation of AOD (above 30 % in the model error) and AE (between 20 and 75 %) is important to provide a better description of aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions in regional climate models.
- ItemGlobal emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2019) Gidden, Matthew J.; Riahi, Keywan; Smith, Steven J.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; van den Berg, Maarten; Feng, Leyang; Klein, David; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Frank, Stefan; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Hilaire, Jérôme; Hoesly, Rachel; Horing, Jill; Popp, Alexander; Stehfest, Elke; Takahashi, KiyoshiWe present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different emissions species and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emissions source spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range of end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal for exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios is bounded on the low end by a 1.9 W m−2 scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with end-of-century temperatures well below 2 ∘C, and on the high end by a 8.5 W m−2 scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5 ∘C over pre-industrial levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6. A wide range of scenario
- ItemDevelopment of the Community Water Model (CWatM v1.04) – a high-resolution hydrological model for global and regional assessment of integrated water resources management(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2020) Burek, Peter; Satoh, Yusuke; Kahil, Taher; Tang, Ting; Greve, Peter; Smilovic, Mikhail; Guillaumot, Luca; Zhao, Fang; Wada, YoshihideWe develop a new large-scale hydrological and water resources model, the Community Water Model (CWatM), which can simulate hydrology both globally and regionally at different resolutions from 30 arcmin to 30 arcsec at daily time steps. CWatM is open source in the Python programming environment and has a modular structure. It uses global, freely available data in the netCDF4 file format for reading, storage, and production of data in a compact way. CWatM includes general surface and groundwater hydrological processes but also takes into account human activities, such as water use and reservoir regulation, by calculating water demands, water use, and return flows. Reservoirs and lakes are included in the model scheme. CWatM is used in the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which compares global model outputs. The flexible model structure allows for dynamic interaction with hydro-economic and water quality models for the assessment and evaluation of water management options. Furthermore, the novelty of CWatM is its combination of state-of-the-art hydrological modeling, modular programming, an online user manual and automatic source code documentation, global and regional assessments at different spatial resolutions, and a potential community to add to, change, and expand the open-source project. CWatM also strives to build a community learning environment which is able to freely use an open-source hydrological model and flexible coupling possibilities to other sectoral models, such as energy and agriculture.
- ItemUnderstanding flood regime changes in Europe: A state-of-the-art assessment(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2014) Hall, J.; Arheimer, B.; Borga, M.; Brázdil, R.; Claps, P.; Kiss, A.; Kjeldsen, T.R.; Kriauĉuniene, J.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Lang, M.; Llasat, M.C.; Macdonald, N.; McIntyre, N.; Mediero, L.; Merz, B.; Merz, R.; Molnar, P.; Montanari, A.; Neuhold, C.; Parajka, J.; Perdigão, R.A.P.; Plavcová, L.; Rogger, M.; Salinas, J.L.; Sauquet, E.; Schär, C.; Szolgay, J.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.There is growing concern that flooding is becoming more frequent and severe in Europe. A better understanding of flood regime changes and their drivers is therefore needed. The paper reviews the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has traditionally been obtained through two alternative research approaches. The first approach is the data-based detection of changes in observed flood events. Current methods are reviewed together with their challenges and opportunities. For example, observation biases, the merging of different data sources and accounting for nonlinear drivers and responses. The second approach consists of modelled scenarios of future floods. Challenges and opportunities associated with flood change scenarios are discussed such as fully accounting for uncertainties in the modelling cascade and feedbacks. To make progress in flood change research, we suggest that a synthesis of these two approaches is needed. This can be achieved by focusing on long duration records and flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on short duration flood trends only, by formally attributing causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood changes and feedbacks. The paper finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network.