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- ItemProjections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer, 2013) Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Pardowitz, T.; Pinto, J.G.; Ulbrich, U.; Born, K.; Donat, M.G.; Karremann, M.K.; Leckebusch, G.C.; Ludwig, P.; Nissen, K.M.; Österle, H.; Prahl, B.F.; Werner, P.C.; Befort, D.J.; Burghoff, O.We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971-2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6-35 % for 2011-2040, of 20-30 % for 2041-2070, and of 40-55 % for 2071-2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.
- ItemImproving Accuracy and Temporal Resolution of Learning Curve Estimation for within- and across-Session Analysis(San Francisco, California, US : PLOS, 2016) Deliano, Matthias; Tabelow, Karsten; König, Reinhard; Polzehl, JörgEstimation of learning curves is ubiquitously based on proportions of correct responses within moving trial windows. Thereby, it is tacitly assumed that learning performance is constant within the moving windows, which, however, is often not the case. In the present study we demonstrate that violations of this assumption lead to systematic errors in the analysis of learning curves, and we explored the dependency of these errors on window size, different statistical models, and learning phase. To reduce these errors in the analysis of single-subject data as well as on the population level, we propose adequate statistical methods for the estimation of learning curves and the construction of confidence intervals, trial by trial. Applied to data from an avoidance learning experiment with rodents, these methods revealed performance changes occurring at multiple time scales within and across training sessions which were otherwise obscured in the conventional analysis. Our work shows that the proper assessment of the behavioral dynamics of learning at high temporal resolution can shed new light on specific learning processes, and, thus, allows to refine existing learning concepts. It further disambiguates the interpretation of neurophysiological signal changes recorded during training in relation to learning.
- ItemAlgorithms and uncertainties for the determination of multispectral irradiance components and aerosol optical depth from a shipborne rotating shadowband radiometer(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2017) Witthuhn, Jonas; Deneke, Hartwig; Macke, Andreas; Bernhard, GermarThe 19-channel rotating shadowband radiometer GUVis-3511 built by Biospherical Instruments provides automated shipborne measurements of the direct, diffuse and global spectral irradiance components without a requirement for platform stabilization. Several direct sun products, including spectral direct beam transmittance, aerosol optical depth, Ångström exponent and precipitable water, can be derived from these observations. The individual steps of the data analysis are described, and the different sources of uncertainty are discussed. The total uncertainty of the observed direct beam transmittances is estimated to be about 4% for most channels within a 95% confidence interval for shipborne operation. The calibration is identified as the dominating contribution to the total uncertainty. A comparison of direct beam transmittance with those obtained from a Cimel sunphotometer at a land site and a manually operated Microtops II sunphotometer on a ship is presented. Measurements deviate by less than 3 and 4% on land and on ship, respectively, for most channels and in agreement with our previous uncertainty estimate. These numbers demonstrate that the instrument is well suited for shipborne operation, and the applied methods for motion correction work accurately. Based on spectral direct beam transmittance, aerosol optical depth can be retrieved with an uncertainty of 0.02 for all channels within a 95% confidence interval. The different methods to account for Rayleigh scattering and gas absorption in our scheme and in the Aerosol Robotic Network processing for Cimel sunphotometers lead to minor deviations. Relying on the cross calibration of the 940 nm water vapor channel with the Cimel sunphotometer, the column amount of precipitable water can be estimated with an uncertainty of ±0.034 cm.