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- ItemALADINA - An unmanned research aircraft for observing vertical and horizontal distributions of ultrafine particles within the atmospheric boundary layer(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Altstädter, B.; Platis, A.; Wehner, B.; Scholtz, A.; Wildmann, N.; Hermann, M.; Käthner, R.; Baars, H.; Bange, J.; Lampert, A.This paper presents the unmanned research aircraft Carolo P360 "ALADINA" (Application of Light-weight Aircraft for Detecting IN situ Aerosol) for investigating the horizontal and vertical distribution of ultrafine particles in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). It has a wingspan of 3.6 m, a maximum take-off weight of 25 kg and is equipped with aerosol instrumentation and meteorological sensors. A first application of the system, together with the unmanned research aircraft MASC (Multi-Purpose Airborne Carrier) of the Eberhard Karls University of Tübingen (EKUT), is described. As small payload for ALADINA, two condensation particle counters (CPC) and one optical particle counter (OPC) were miniaturised by re-arranging the vital parts and composing them in a space-saving way in the front compartment of the airframe. The CPCs are improved concerning the lower detection threshold and the response time to less than 1.3 s. Each system was characterised in the laboratory and calibrated with test aerosols. The CPCs are operated in this study with two different lower detection threshold diameters of 11 and 18 nm. The amount of ultrafine particles, which is an indicator for new particle formation, is derived from the difference in number concentrations of the two CPCs (ΔN). Turbulence and thermodynamic structure of the boundary layer are described by measurements of fast meteorological sensors that are mounted at the aircraft nose. A first demonstration of ALADINA and a feasibility study were conducted in Melpitz near Leipzig, Germany, at the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) station of the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS) on 2 days in October 2013. There, various ground-based instruments are installed for long-term atmospheric monitoring. The ground-based infrastructure provides valuable additional background information to embed the flights in the continuous atmospheric context and is used for validation of the airborne results. The development of the boundary layer, derived from backscatter signals of a portable Raman lidar POLLYXT, allows a quick overview of the current vertical structure of atmospheric particles. Ground-based aerosol number concentrations are consistent with the results from flights in heights of a few metres. In addition, a direct comparison of ALADINA aerosol data and ground-based aerosol data, sampling the air at the same location for more than 1 h, shows comparable values within the range of ± 20 %. MASC was operated simultaneously with complementary flight patterns. It is equipped with the same meteorological instruments that offer the possibility to determine turbulent fluxes. Therefore, additional information about meteorological conditions was collected in the lowest part of the atmosphere. Vertical profiles up to 1000 m in altitude indicate a high variability with distinct layers of aerosol, especially for the small particles of a few nanometres in diameter on 1 particular day. The stratification was almost neutral and two significant aerosol layers were detected with total aerosol number concentrations up to 17 000 ± 3400 cm−3 between 180 and 220 m altitude and 14 000 ± 2800 cm−3 between 550 and 650 m. Apart from those layers, the aerosol distribution was well mixed and reached the total number concentration of less than 8000 ± 1600 cm−3. During another day, the distribution of the small particles in the lowermost ABL was related to the stratification, with continuously decreasing number concentrations from 16 000 ± 3200 cm−3 to a minimum of 4000 ± 800 cm−3 at the top of the inversion at 320 m. Above this, the total number concentration was rather constant. In the region of 500 to 600 m altitude, a significant difference of both CPCs was observed. This event occurred during the boundary layer development in the morning and represents a particle burst within the ABL.
- ItemInferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2019) Runge, Jakob; Bathiany, Sebastian; Bollt, Erik; Camps-Valls, Gustau; Coumou, Dim; Deyle, Ethan; Glymour, Clark; Kretschmer, Marlene; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Muñoz-Marí, Jordi; van Nes, Egbert H.; Peters, Jonas; Quax, Rick; Reichstein, Markus; Scheffer, Marten; Schölkopf, Bernhard; Spirtes, Peter; Sugihara, George; Sun, Jie; Zhang, Kun; Zscheischler, JakobThe heart of the scientific enterprise is a rational effort to understand the causes behind the phenomena we observe. In large-scale complex dynamical systems such as the Earth system, real experiments are rarely feasible. However, a rapidly increasing amount of observational and simulated data opens up the use of novel data-driven causal methods beyond the commonly adopted correlation techniques. Here, we give an overview of causal inference frameworks and identify promising generic application cases common in Earth system sciences and beyond. We discuss challenges and initiate the benchmark platform causeme.net to close the gap between method users and developers. © 2019, The Author(s).
- ItemPartial cross mapping eliminates indirect causal influences([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2020) Leng, Siyang; Ma, Huanfei; Kurths, Jürgen; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Lin, Wei; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Chen, LuonanCausality detection likely misidentifies indirect causations as direct ones, due to the effect of causation transitivity. Although several methods in traditional frameworks have been proposed to avoid such misinterpretations, there still is a lack of feasible methods for identifying direct causations from indirect ones in the challenging situation where the variables of the underlying dynamical system are non-separable and weakly or moderately interacting. Here, we solve this problem by developing a data-based, model-independent method of partial cross mapping based on an articulated integration of three tools from nonlinear dynamics and statistics: phase-space reconstruction, mutual cross mapping, and partial correlation. We demonstrate our method by using data from different representative models and real-world systems. As direct causations are keys to the fundamental underpinnings of a variety of complex dynamics, we anticipate our method to be indispensable in unlocking and deciphering the inner mechanisms of real systems in diverse disciplines from data.
- ItemUnderstanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Rogelj, J.; Fricko, O.; Meinshausen, M.; Krey, V.; Zilliacus, J.J.J.; Riahi, K.The UN Paris Agreement puts in place a legally binding mechanism to increase mitigation action over time. Countries put forward pledges called nationally determined contributions (NDC) whose impact is assessed in global stocktaking exercises. Subsequently, actions can then be strengthened in light of the Paris climate objective: Limiting global mean temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to limit it further to 1.5 °C. However, pledged actions are currently described ambiguously and this complicates the global stocktaking exercise. Here, we systematically explore possible interpretations of NDC assumptions, and show that this results in estimated emissions for 2030 ranging from 47 to 63 GtCO2e yr-1. We show that this uncertainty has critical implications for the feasibility and cost to limit warming well below 2 °C and further to 1.5 °C. Countries are currently working towards clarifying the modalities of future NDCs. We identify salient avenues to reduce the overall uncertainty by about 10 percentage points through simple, technical clarifications regarding energy accounting rules. Remaining uncertainties depend to a large extent on politically valid choices about how NDCs are expressed, and therefore raise the importance of a thorough and robust process that keeps track of where emissions are heading over time.
- ItemTechnical feasibility study for production of tailored multielectrode arrays and patterning of arranged neuronal networks(San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2018) Schürmann, M.; Shepheard, N.; Frese, N.; Geishendorf, K.; Sudhoff, H.; Gölzhäuser, A.; Rückert, U.; Kaltschmidt, C.; Kaltschmidt, B.; Thomas, A.In this manuscript, we first reveal a simple ultra violet laser lithographic method to design and produce plain tailored multielectrode arrays. Secondly, we use the same lithographic setup for surface patterning to enable controlled attachment of primary neuronal cells and help neurite guidance. For multielectrode array production, we used flat borosilicate glass directly structured with the laser lithography system. The multi layered electrode system consists of a layer of titanium coated with a layer of di-titanium nitride. Finally, these electrodes are covered with silicon nitride for insulation. The quality of the custom made multielectrode arrays was investigated by light microscopy, electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction. The performance was verified by the detection of action potentials of primary neurons. The electrical noise of the custom-made MEA was equal to commercially available multielectrode arrays. Additionally, we demonstrated that structured coating with poly lysine, obtained with the aid of the same lithographic system, could be used to attach and guide neurons to designed structures. The process of neuron attachment and neurite guidance was investigated by light microscopy and charged particle microscopy. Importantly, the utilization of the same lithographic system for MEA fabrication and poly lysine structuring will make it easy to align the architecture of the neuronal network to the arrangement of the MEA electrode.. In future studies, this will lead to multielectrode arrays, which are able to specifically attach neuronal cell bodies to their chemically defined electrodes and guide their neurites, gaining a controlled connectivity in the neuronal network. This type of multielectrode array would be able to precisely assign a signal to a certain neuron resulting in an efficient way for analyzing the maturation of the neuronal connectivity in small neuronal networks.