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- ItemModelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE - Part 1: Simulating historical global burned area and fire regimes(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Cadule, P.; Thonicke, K.; Archibald, S.; Poulter, B.; Hao, W.M.; Hantson, S.; Mouillot, F.; Friedlingstein, P.; Maignan, F.; Viovy, N.Fire is an important global ecological process that influences the distribution of biomes, with consequences for carbon, water, and energy budgets. Therefore it is impossible to appropriately model the history and future of the terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system without including fire. This study incorporates the process-based prognostic fire module SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE, which was then used to simulate burned area over the 20th century. Special attention was paid to the evaluation of other fire regime indicators such as seasonality, fire size and fire length, next to burned area. For 2001–2006, the simulated global spatial extent of fire agrees well with that given by satellite-derived burned area data sets (L3JRC, GLOBCARBON, GFED3.1), and 76–92% of the global burned area is simulated as collocated between the model and observation, depending on which data set is used for comparison. The simulated global mean annual burned area is 346 Mha yr−1, which falls within the range of 287–384 Mha yr−1 as given by the three observation data sets; and is close to the 344 Mha yr−1 by the GFED3.1 data when crop fires are excluded. The simulated long-term trend and variation of burned area agree best with the observation data in regions where fire is mainly driven by climate variation, such as boreal Russia (1930–2009), along with Canada and US Alaska (1950–2009). At the global scale, the simulated decadal fire variation over the 20th century is only in moderate agreement with the historical reconstruction, possibly because of the uncertainties of past estimates, and because land-use change fires and fire suppression are not explicitly included in the model. Over the globe, the size of large fires (the 95th quantile fire size) is underestimated by the model for the regions of high fire frequency, compared with fire patch data as reconstructed from MODIS 500 m burned area data. Two case studies of fire size distribution in Canada and US Alaska, and southern Africa indicate that both number and size of large fires are underestimated, which could be related with short fire patch length and low daily fire size. Future efforts should be directed towards building consistent spatial observation data sets for key parameters of the model in order to constrain the model error at each key step of the fire modelling.
- ItemDynamical phenomena in complex networks: fundamentals and applications(Berlin ; Heidelberg : Springer, 2021) Yanchuk, Serhiy; Roque, Antonio C.; Macau, Elbert E. N.; Kurths, JürgenThis special issue presents a series of 33 contributions in the area of dynamical networks and their applications. Part of the contributions is devoted to theoretical and methodological aspects of dynamical networks, such as collective dynamics of excitable systems, spreading processes, coarsening, synchronization, delayed interactions, and others. A particular focus is placed on applications to neuroscience and Earth science, especially functional climate networks. Among the highlights, various methods for dealing with noise and stochastic processes in neuroscience are presented. A method for constructing weighted networks with arbitrary topologies from a single dynamical node with delayed feedback is introduced. Also, a generalization of the concept of geodesic distances, a path-integral formulation of network-based measures is developed, which provides fundamental insights into the dynamics of disease transmission. The contributions from the Earth science application field substantiate predictive power of climate networks to study challenging Earth processes and phenomena.
- ItemClimate Change in Central and Eastern Europe(Dordrecht : Springer, 2014) Anders, I.; Stagl, J.; Auer, I.; Pavlik, D.Climate change is affecting many fields of the society, policy, economy and environment. Information on changes in the climate during the last centuries and especially in near and far future is essential. Estimation and quantification of changes in climate variables and indices are a necessary precondition for adaptation and mitigation measures. This chapter gives an overview on measures, observations as well as dynamical models, which are available to estimate changes in the past and the present climate as well as for a possible future climate. It summarises the state of knowledge according to the climate change signal in Central and Eastern Europe. Moreover it identifies the limitations and uncertainties of the measures and the derived information.
- ItemUsing Meta-Analysis and GIS for Value Transfer and Scaling Up: Valuing Climate Change Induced Losses of European Wetlands(Dordrecht : Springer, 2012) Brander, L.M.; Bräuer, I.; Gerdes, H.; Ghermandi, A.; Kuik, O.; Markandya, A.; Navrud, S.; Nunes, P.A.L.D.; Schaafsma, M.; Vos, H.; Wagtendonk, A.There is growing policy and academic interest in transferring ecosystem service values from existing valuation studies to other ecosystem sites at a large geographic scale. Despite the evident policy demand for this combined transfer and "scaling up" of values, an approach to value transfer that addresses the challenges inherent in assessing ecosystem changes at a national or regional level is not available. This paper proposes a methodology for scaling up ecosystem service values to estimate the welfare effects of ecosystem change at this larger geographical scale. The methodology is illustrated by applying it to value the impact of climate change on European wetlands for the period 2000-2050. The proposed methodology makes use of meta-analysis to produce a value function. The parameters of the value function include spatial variables on wetland size and abundance, GDP per capita, and population. A geographic information system is used to construct a database of wetland sites in the case study region with information on these spatial variables. Site-specific ecosystem service values are subsequently estimated using the meta-analytic value function. The proposed method is shown to enable the adjustment of transferred values to reflect variation in important spatial variables and to account for changes in the stock of ecosystems.
- ItemWater implications of foreign direct investment in Ethiopia's agricultural sector(Basel : MDPI AG, 2012) Bossio, D.; Erkossa, T.; Dile, Y.; McCartney, M.; Killiches, F.; Hoff, H.Ethiopia is often highlighted as a country in which a lot of foreign land acquisition is occurring. The extent to which these investments also constitute significant acquisitions of water is the subject of this paper. It is apparent that water availability is a strong driver of the recent surge of investments in agricultural land globally, and in general the investments occur in countries with significant 'untapped' water resources. Ethiopia is no exception. We propose that the perception of unused and abundant water resources, as captured in dominant narratives, that drives and justifies both foreign and domestic investments, fails to reflect the more complex reality on the ground. Based on new collections of lease information and crop modelling, we estimate the potential additional water use associated with foreign investments at various scales. As a consequence of data limitations our analyses provide only crude estimates of consumptive water use and indicate a wide range of possible water consumption depending on exactly how foreign direct investment (FDI) development scenarios unfold. However, they do suggest that if all planned FDI schemes are implemented and expanded in the near future, additional water consumption is likely to be comparable with existing water use in non-FDI irrigation schemes, and a non-trivial proportion of the country's water resources will be effectively utilised by foreign entities. Hence, additional water use as well as local water scarcity ought to be strong considerations in regulating or pricing land leases. If new investments are to increase local food and water security without compromising local and downstream water availability they should be designed to improve often very low agricultural water productivity, and to safeguard access of local populations to water.
- ItemReport on ICDP Deep Dust workshops: probing continental climate of the late Paleozoic icehouse–greenhouse transition and beyond(Sapporo : IODP, 2020) Soreghan, Gerilyn S.; Beccaletto, Laurent; Benison, Kathleen C.; Bourquin, Sylvie; Feulner, Georg; Hamamura, Natsuko; Hamilton, Michael; Heavens, Nicholas G.; Hinnov, Linda; Huttenlocker, Adam; Looy, Cindy; Pfeifer, Lily S.; Pochat, Stephane; Sardar Abadi, Mehrdad; Zambito, JamesChamberlin and Salisbury's assessment of the Permian a century ago captured the essence of the period: it is an interval of extremes yet one sufficiently recent to have affected a biosphere with near-modern complexity. The events of the Permian - the orogenic episodes, massive biospheric turnovers, both icehouse and greenhouse antitheses, and Mars-analog lithofacies - boggle the imagination and present us with great opportunities to explore Earth system behavior. The ICDP-funded workshops dubbed "Deep Dust," held in Oklahoma (USA) in March 2019 (67 participants from nine countries) and Paris (France) in January 2020 (33 participants from eight countries), focused on clarifying the scientific drivers and key sites for coring continuous sections of Permian continental (loess, lacustrine, and associated) strata that preserve high-resolution records. Combined, the two workshops hosted a total of 91 participants representing 14 countries, with broad expertise. Discussions at Deep Dust 1.0 (USA) focused on the primary research questions of paleoclimate, paleoenvironments, and paleoecology of icehouse collapse and the run-up to the Great Dying and both the modern and Permian deep microbial biosphere. Auxiliary science topics included tectonics, induced seismicity, geothermal energy, and planetary science. Deep Dust 1.0 also addressed site selection as well as scientific approaches, logistical challenges, and broader impacts and included a mid-workshop field trip to view the Permian of Oklahoma. Deep Dust 2.0 focused specifically on honing the European target. The Anadarko Basin (Oklahoma) and Paris Basin (France) represent the most promising initial targets to capture complete or near-complete stratigraphic coverage through continental successions that serve as reference points for western and eastern equatorial Pangaea. © 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
- ItemCarbon allocation and carbon isotope fluxes in the plant-soil-atmosphere continuum: A review(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Brüggemann, N.; Gessler, A.; Kayler, Z.; Keel, S.G.; Badeck, F.; Barthel, M.; Boeckx, P.; Buchmann, N.; Brugnoli, E.; Esperschütz, J.; Gavrichkova, O.; Ghashghaie, J.; Gomez-Casanovas, N.; Keitel, C.; Knohl, A.; Kuptz, D.; Palacio, S.; Salmon, Y.; Uchida, Y.; Bahn, M.The terrestrial carbon (C) cycle has received increasing interest over the past few decades, however, there is still a lack of understanding of the fate of newly assimilated C allocated within plants and to the soil, stored within ecosystems and lost to the atmosphere. Stable carbon isotope studies can give novel insights into these issues. In this review we provide an overview of an emerging picture of plant-soil-atmosphere C fluxes, as based on C isotope studies, and identify processes determining related C isotope signatures. The first part of the review focuses on isotopic fractionation processes within plants during and after photosynthesis. The second major part elaborates on plant-internal and plant-rhizosphere C allocation patterns at different time scales (diel, seasonal, interannual), including the speed of C transfer and time lags in the coupling of assimilation and respiration, as well as the magnitude and controls of plant-soil C allocation and respiratory fluxes. Plant responses to changing environmental conditions, the functional relationship between the physiological and phenological status of plants and C transfer, and interactions between C, water and nutrient dynamics are discussed. The role of the C counterflow from the rhizosphere to the aboveground parts of the plants, e.g. via CO2 dissolved in the xylem water or as xylem-transported sugars, is highlighted. The third part is centered around belowground C turnover, focusing especially on above- and belowground litter inputs, soil organic matter formation and turnover, production and loss of dissolved organic C, soil respiration and CO2 fixation by soil microbes. Furthermore, plant controls on microbial communities and activity via exudates and litter production as well as microbial community effects on C mineralization are reviewed. A further part of the paper is dedicated to physical interactions between soil CO2 and the soil matrix, such as CO2 diffusion and dissolution processes within the soil profile. Finally, we highlight state-of-the-art stable isotope methodologies and their latest developments. From the presented evidence we conclude that there exists a tight coupling of physical, chemical and biological processes involved in C cycling and C isotope fluxes in the plant-soil-atmosphere system. Generally, research using information from C isotopes allows an integrated view of the different processes involved. However, complex interactions among the range of processes complicate or currently impede the interpretation of isotopic signals in CO2 or organic compounds at the plant and ecosystem level. This review tries to identify present knowledge gaps in correctly interpreting carbon stable isotope signals in the plant-soil-atmosphere system and how future research approaches could contribute to closing these gaps.
- ItemThe Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.
- ItemEffects of Climate Change on the Hydrological Cycle in Central and Eastern Europe(Dordrecht : Springer, 2014) Stagl, J.; Mayr, E.; Koch, H.; Hattermann, F.F.; Huang, S.For the management of protected areas knowledge about the water regime plays a very important role, in particular in areas with lakes, wetlands, marches or floodplains. The local hydrological conditions depend widely on temporal and spatial variations of the main components of the hydrologic cycle and physiographic conditions on site. To preserve a favourable conservation status under changing climatic conditions park managers require information about potential impacts of climate change in their area. The following chapter provides an overview of how climate change affects the hydrological regimes in Central and Eastern Europe. The hydrological impacts for the protected areas are area-specific and vary from region to region. Generally, an increase in temperature enhances the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and thus, leads to an intensification of the hydrological cycle. Key changes in the hydrological system include alterations in the seasonal distribution, magnitude and duration of precipitation and evapotranspiration. This may lead to changes in the water storage, surface runoff, soil moisture and seasonal snow packs as well as to modifications in the mass balance of Central European glaciers. Partly, water resources management can help to counterbalance effects of climate change on stream flow and water availability.
- ItemPredicting the data structure prior to extreme events from passive observables using echo state network(Lausanne : Frontiers Media, 2022) Banerjee, Abhirup; Mishra, Arindam; Dana, Syamal K.; Hens, Chittaranjan; Kapitaniak, Tomasz; Kurths, Jürgen; Marwan, NorbertExtreme events are defined as events that largely deviate from the nominal state of the system as observed in a time series. Due to the rarity and uncertainty of their occurrence, predicting extreme events has been challenging. In real life, some variables (passive variables) often encode significant information about the occurrence of extreme events manifested in another variable (active variable). For example, observables such as temperature, pressure, etc., act as passive variables in case of extreme precipitation events. These passive variables do not show any large excursion from the nominal condition yet carry the fingerprint of the extreme events. In this study, we propose a reservoir computation-based framework that can predict the preceding structure or pattern in the time evolution of the active variable that leads to an extreme event using information from the passive variable. An appropriate threshold height of events is a prerequisite for detecting extreme events and improving the skill of their prediction. We demonstrate that the magnitude of extreme events and the appearance of a coherent pattern before the arrival of the extreme event in a time series affect the prediction skill. Quantitatively, we confirm this using a metric describing the mean phase difference between the input time signals, which decreases when the magnitude of the extreme event is relatively higher, thereby increasing the predictability skill.