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Type: article × Publisher: Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier × WGL Institute: PIK ×

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 19
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    Improving the evidence base: A methodological review of the quantitative climate migration literature
    (Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2021) Hoffmann, Roman; Šedová, Barbora; Vinke, Kira
    The question whether and how climatic factors influence human migration has gained both academic and public interest in the past years. Based on two meta-analyses, this paper systematically reviews the quantitative empirical literature on climate-related migration from a methodological perspective. In total, information from 127 original micro- and macro-level studies is analyzed to assess how different concepts, research designs, and analytical methods shape our understanding of climate migration. We provide an overview of common methodological approaches and present evidence on their potential implications for the estimation of climatic impacts. We identify five key challenges, which relate to the i) measurement of migration and ii) climatic events, iii) the integration and aggregation of data, iv) the identification of causal relationships, and v) the exploration of contextual influences and mechanisms. Advances in research and modelling are discussed together with best practice cases to provide guidance to researchers studying the climate-migration nexus. We recommend for future empirical studies to employ approaches that are of relevance for and reflect local contexts, ensuring high levels of comparability and transparency.
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    Regionalisation of global insights into dryland vulnerability: Better reflecting smallholders' vulnerability in Northeast Brazil
    (Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2014) Sietz, D.
    Global analyses of vulnerability reveal generic insights into the relation between socio-ecological systems and the stress impacting upon them including climate and market variability. They thus provide a valuable basis for better understanding and comparing the evolution of socio-ecological systems from a broad perspective. However, even when reflecting sub-national differences, global assessments necessarily aggregate regional variations in the underlying conditions of vulnerability. Refinements are therefore necessary to better accommodate context-specific processes and hence facilitate vulnerability reduction. This study presents a novel methodology to refining global insights into vulnerability at a regional scale. It is based on a spatially explicit link between broad patterns of vulnerability and modelled regional smallholder development. Its application in order to better represent the drylands of Northeast Brazil reveals specific facets of smallholders' vulnerability at the municipio level, reflecting non-linear dynamics. The results show that smallholders' vulnerability was widely exacerbated in the most vulnerable areas. One key mechanism causing such a vulnerability increase involved intensifying resource degradation and the related potential for impoverishment as modelled at the regional scale. In addition, by subsequently re-orienting their livelihoods towards off-farm activities, smallholders became more sensitive to fluctuations and competition in the labour market. In contrast to these critical trends, living and environmental conditions improved in only some areas, thus indicating a decrease in vulnerability. Altogether, in differentiating the heterogeneity of resource management and smallholders' livelihoods, the regional refinement presented in this study indicates necessary adjustments to generic strategies for vulnerability reduction gained at the global scale.
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    The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions
    (Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Kalkuhl, Matthias; Wenz, Leonie
    We present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5°C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7–14% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73–142$/tCO2 in 2020, rising to 92–181$/tCO2 in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise. © 2020 The Authors
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    Sustainable food protein supply reconciling human and ecosystem health: A Leibniz Position
    (Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Weindl, Isabelle; Ost, Mario; Wiedmer, Petra; Schreiner, Monika; Neugart, Susanne; Klopsch, Rebecca; Kühnhold, Holger; Kloas, Werner; Henkel, Ina M.; Schlüter, Oliver; Bußler, Sara; Bellingrath-Kimura, Sonoko D.; Ma, Hua; Grune, Tilman; Rolinski, Susanne; Klaus, Susanne
    Many global health risks are related to what and how much we eat. At the same time, the production of food, especially from animal origin, contributes to environmental change at a scale that threatens boundaries of a safe operating space for humanity. Here we outline viable solutions how to reconcile healthy protein consumption and sustainable protein production which requires a solid, interdisciplinary evidence base. We review the role of proteins for human and ecosystem health, including physiological effects of dietary proteins, production potentials from agricultural and aquaculture systems, environmental impacts of protein production, and mitigation potentials of transforming current production systems. Various protein sources from plant and animal origin, including insects and fish, are discussed in the light of their health and environmental implications. Integration of available knowledge is essential to move from a dual problem description (“healthy diets versus environment”) towards approaches that frame the food challenge of reconciling human and ecosystem health in the context of planetary health. This endeavor requires a shifting focus from metrics at the level of macronutrients to whole diets and a better understanding of the full cascade of health effects caused by dietary proteins, including health risks from food-related environmental degradation. © 2020
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    The role of nitrogen in achieving sustainable food systems for healthy diets
    (Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Leip, Adrian; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Kugelberg, Susanna
    The ‘food system’ urgently needs a sustainable transformation. Two major challenges have to be solved: the food system has to provide food security with healthy, accessible, affordable, safe and diverse food for all, and it has to do so within the safe operating space of the planetary boundaries, where the pollution from reactive nitrogen turned out to be the largest bottleneck. Here we argue that thinking strategically about how to balance nitrogen flows throughout the food system will make current food systems more resilient and robust. Looking from a material and a governance perspective on the food system, we highlight major nitrogen losses and policy blind spots originating from a compartmentalization of food system spheres. We conclude that a participatory and integrated approach to manage nitrogen flows throughout the food system is necessary to stay within regional and global nitrogen boundaries, and will additionally provide synergies with a sustainable and healthy diet for all. © 2020 The Authors
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    Wildlife-vehicle collisions in hurungwe safari area, northern zimbabwe
    (Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Gandiwa, Edson; Mashapa, Clayton; Muboko, Never; Chemura, Abel; Kuvaoga, Phillip; Mabika, Cheryl T.
    This study is the first to assess wildlife-vehicle collisions (WVC) in Zimbabwe. The study analysed the impact and factors that influence vehicle collisions with large wild mammals along the Harare-Chirundu road section in the protected Hurungwe Safari Area, northern Zimbabwe. Data were retrieved from the Hurungwe Safari Area records and covered the period between 2006 and 2013. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse the recorded variables across the sampled area and to show trends of the prevalence of large wild mammals roadkill over time. Using STATISTICA version 10 for Windows, a two-tailed Mann-Whitney U test was used to determine differences between the number of wild mammal animal roadkills and seasons. A total of 47 large wild mammal animals were killed between 2006 and 2013. The large wild mammal animals that died as a result of vehicle collisions constituted a total of 11 species, with the African buffalo and spotted hyena being the most hit and killed animal species. Most WVC involved heavy haulage trucks and passenger buses. There was no significance difference (P = 0.936) between number of large wild mammal animals killed from WVC between dry and wet seasons. The large wild mammal animals were mostly killed in areas near water sources. We recommend for the inclusion of wildlife protection safeguards in road infrastructure network design and development, particularly on roads that traverse across protected areas in Zimbabwe and beyond. © 2020 The Author(s)
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    The social cost of carbon and inequality: When local redistribution shapes global carbon prices
    (Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2021) Kornek, Ulrike; Klenert, David; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Fleurbaey, Marc
    The social cost of carbon is a central metric for optimal carbon prices. Previous literature shows that inequality significantly influences the social cost of carbon, but mostly omits heterogeneity below the national level. We present an optimal taxation model of the social cost of carbon that accounts for inequality between and within countries. We find that climate and distributional policy can generally not be separated. If only one country does not compensate low-income households for disproportionate damages, the social cost of carbon tends to increase globally. Optimal carbon prices remain roughly unchanged if national redistribution leaves inequality between households unaffected by climate change and if the utility of households is approximately logarithmic in consumption.
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    From Planetary Boundaries to national fair shares of the global safe operating space — How can the scales be bridged?
    (Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2016) Häyhä, Tiina; Lucas, Paul L.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Cornell, Sarah E.; Hoff, Holger
    The planetary boundaries framework proposes quantitative global limits to the anthropogenic perturbation of crucial Earth system processes, and thus marks out a planetary safe operating space for human activities. Yet, decisions regarding resource use and emissions are mostly made at less aggregated scales, by national and sub-national governments, businesses, and other local actors. To operationalize the planetary boundaries concept, the boundaries need to be translated into and aligned with targets that are relevant at these decision-making scales. In this paper, we develop a framework that addresses the biophysical, socio-economic, and ethical dimensions of bridging across scales, to provide a consistently applicable approach for translating the planetary boundaries into national-level fair shares of Earth’s safe operating space. We discuss our findings in the context of previous studies and their implications for future analyses and policymaking. In this way, we link the planetary boundaries framework to widely-applied operational and policy concepts for more robust strong sustainability decision-making.
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    The impact of land-use/land cover changes on water balance of the heterogeneous Buzi sub-catchment, Zimbabwe
    (Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Chemura, Abel; Rwasoka, Donald; Mutanga, Onisimo; Dube, Timothy; Mushore, Terence
    The nature of interactions between ecological, physical and hydrological characteristics that determine the effects of land cover change on surface and sub-surface hydrology is not well understood in both natural and disturbed environments. The spatiotemporal dynamics of water fluxes and their relationship with land cover changes between 2009 and 2017 in the headwater Buzi sub-catchment in Zimbabwe is evaluated. To achieve this, land cover dynamics for the area under study were characterised from the 30 m Landsat data, using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm. After the land cover classification, the key water balance components namely; interception, transpiration and evapotranspiration (ET) contributions for each class in 2009 and 2017 were estimated. Image classification of Landsat data achieved good overall accuracies above 80% for the two periods. Results showed that the percentage of the plantation land cover types decreased slightly between 2009 (25.4%) and 2017 (22.5%). Partitioning the annual interception, transpiration and ET according to land cover classes showed that the highest amounts of ET in the basin were from plantation where land cover types with tea had the highest interception, transpiration and ET in the catchment. Higher ET, interception and transpiration were observed in the eastern parts of the catchment. At catchment level, results show that 2017 had a higher water balance than 2009, which was partly explained by the decrease in plantation cover type.
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    A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture
    (Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2019) Mitter, Hermine; Techen, Anja-K.; Sinabell, Franz; Helming, Katharina; Kok, Kasper; Priess, Jörg A.; Schmid, Erwin; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Holman, Ian; Lehtonen, Heikki; Leip, Adrian; Le Mouël, Chantal; Mehdi, Bano; Michetti, Melania; Mittenzwei, Klaus; Mora, Olivier; Øygarden, Lillian; Reidsma, Pytrik; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schönhart, Martin
    Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs – to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd