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- ItemSensitivity of polar stratospheric ozone loss to uncertainties in chemical reaction kinetics(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2009) Kawa, S.R.; Stolarski, R.S.; Newman, P.A.; Douglass, A.R.; Rex, M.; Hofmann, D.J.; Santee, M.L.; Frieler, K.The impact and significance of uncertainties in model calculations of stratospheric ozone loss resulting from known uncertainty in chemical kinetics parameters is evaluated in trajectory chemistry simulations for the Antarctic and Arctic polar vortices. The uncertainty in modeled ozone loss is derived from Monte Carlo scenario simulations varying the kinetic (reaction and photolysis rate) parameters within their estimated uncertainty bounds. Simulations of a typical winter/spring Antarctic vortex scenario and Match scenarios in the Arctic produce large uncertainty in ozone loss rates and integrated seasonal loss. The simulations clearly indicate that the dominant source of model uncertainty in polar ozone loss is uncertainty in the Cl2O 2 photolysis reaction, which arises from uncertainty in laboratory-measured molecular cross sections at atmospherically important wavelengths. This estimated uncertainty in JCl 2O2 from laboratory measurements seriously hinders our ability to model polar ozone loss within useful quantitative error limits. Atmospheric observations, however, suggest that the Cl2O2 photolysis uncertainty may be less than that derived from the lab data. Comparisons to Match, South Pole ozonesonde, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data all show that the nominal recommended rate simulations agree with data within uncertainties when the Cl2O2 photolysis error is reduced by a factor of two, in line with previous in situ ClOx measurements. Comparisons to simulations using recent cross sections from Pope et al. (2007) are outside the constrained error bounds in each case. Other reactions producing significant sensitivity in polar ozone loss include BrO + ClO and its branching ratios. These uncertainties challenge our confidence in modeling polar ozone depletion and projecting future changes in response to changing halogen emissions and climate. Further laboratory, theoretical, and possibly atmospheric studies are needed.
- ItemThe sensitivity of the colour of dust in MSG-SEVIRI Desert Dust infrared composite imagery to surface and atmospheric conditions(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2019) Banks, J.R.; Hünerbein, A.; Heinold, B.; Brindley, H.E.; Deneke, H.; Schepanski, K.Infrared "Desert Dust" composite imagery taken by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI), onboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) series of satellites above the equatorial East Atlantic, has been widely used for more than a decade to identify and track the presence of dust storms from and over the Sahara Desert, the Middle East, and southern Africa. Dust is characterised by distinctive pink colours in the Desert Dust false-colour imagery; however, the precise colour is influenced by numerous environmental properties, such as the surface thermal emissivity and skin temperature, the atmospheric water vapour content, the quantity and height of dust in the atmosphere, and the infrared optical properties of the dust itself. For this paper, simulations of SEVIRI infrared measurements and imagery have been performed using a modelling system, which combines dust concentrations simulated by the aerosol transport model COSMO-MUSCAT (COSMO: COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling; MUSCAT: MUltiScale Chemistry Aerosol Transport Model) with radiative transfer simulations from the RTTOV (Radiative Transfer for TOVS) model. Investigating the sensitivity of the synthetic infrared imagery to the environmental properties over a 6-month summertime period from 2011 to 2013, it is confirmed that water vapour is a major control on the apparent colour of dust, obscuring its presence when the moisture content is high. Of the three SEVIRI channels used in the imagery (8.7, 10.8, and 12.0 μm), the channel at 10.8 μm has the highest atmospheric transmittance and is therefore the most sensitive to the surface skin temperature. A direct consequence of this sensitivity is that the background desert surface exhibits a strong diurnal cycle in colour, with light blue colours possible during the day and purple hues prevalent at night. In dusty scenes, the clearest pink colours arise from high-altitude dust in dry atmospheres. Elevated dust influences the dust colour primarily by reducing the contrast in atmospheric transmittance above the dust layer between the SEVIRI channels at 10.8 and 12.0 μm, thereby boosting red and pink colours in the imagery. Hence, the higher the dust altitude, the higher the threshold column moisture needed for dust to be obscured in the imagery: for a sample of dust simulated to have an aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm of 2-3 at an altitude of 3-4 km, the characteristic colour of the dust may only be impaired when the total column water vapour is particularly moist ('39 mm). Meanwhile, dust close to the surface (altitude < 1 km) is only likely to be apparent when the atmosphere is particularly dry and when the surface is particularly hot, requiring column moisture/13 mm and skin temperatures '314 K, and is highly unlikely to be apparent when the skin temperature is/300 K. Such low-altitude dust will regularly be almost invisible within the imagery, since it will usually be beneath much of the atmospheric water vapour column. It is clear that the interpretation of satellite-derived dust imagery is greatly aided by knowledge of the background environment.
- ItemModelling the wintertime response to upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric ozone anomalies over the North Atlantic and Europe(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2003) Kirchner, I.; Peters, D.During boreal winter months, mean longitude-dependent ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are mainly used by different ozone transport by planetary waves. The response to radiative perturbation induced by these ozone changes near the tropopause on the circulation is unclear. This response is investigated with the ECHAM4 general circulation model in a sensitivity study. In the simulation two different mean January realizations of the ozone field are implemented in ECHAM4. Both ozone fields are estimated on the basis of the observed mean January planetary wave structure of the 1980s. The first field represents a 14-year average (reference, 1979-1992) and the second one represents the mean ozone field change (anomaly, 1988-92) in boreal extra-tropics during the end of the 1980s. The model runs were carried out pairwise, with identical initial conditions for both ozone fields. Five statistically independent experiments were performed, forced with the observed sea surface temperatures for the period 1988 to 1992. The results support the hypothesis that the zonally asymmetric ozone changes of the 80s triggered a systematic alteration of the circulation over the North Atlantic - European region. It is suggested that this feedback process is important for the understanding of the decadal coupling between troposphere and stratosphere, as well as between subtropics and extra-tropics in winter.
- ItemProcess verification of a hydrological model using a temporal parameter sensitivity analysis(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2015) Pfannerstill, M.; Guse, B.; Reusser, D.; Fohrer, N.