Filters

2016 - 20192

More filters

2021 - 20222
Reset filters

Settings

Publisher: Göttingen : Copernicus Publ. × Subject: hazard assessment ×

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    The effect of univariate bias adjustment on multivariate hazard estimates
    (Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2019) Zscheischler, Jakob; Fischer, Erich M.; Lange, Stefan
    Bias adjustment is often a necessity in estimating climate impacts because impact models usually rely on unbiased climate information, a requirement that climate model outputs rarely fulfil. Most currently used statistical bias-adjustment methods adjust each climate variable separately, even though impacts usually depend on multiple potentially dependent variables. Human heat stress, for instance, depends on temperature and relative humidity, two variables that are often strongly correlated. Whether univariate bias-adjustment methods effectively improve estimates of impacts that depend on multiple drivers is largely unknown, and the lack of long-term impact data prevents a direct comparison between model outputs and observations for many climate-related impacts. Here we use two hazard indicators, heat stress and a simple fire risk indicator, as proxies for more sophisticated impact models. We show that univariate bias-adjustment methods such as univariate quantile mapping often cannot effectively reduce biases in multivariate hazard estimates. In some cases, it even increases biases. These cases typically occur (i) when hazards depend equally strongly on more than one climatic driver, (ii) when models exhibit biases in the dependence structure of drivers and (iii) when univariate biases are relatively small. Using a perfect model approach, we further quantify the uncertainty in bias-adjusted hazard indicators due to internal variability and show how imperfect bias adjustment can amplify this uncertainty. Both issues can be addressed successfully with a statistical bias adjustment that corrects the multivariate dependence structure in addition to the marginal distributions of the climate drivers. Our results suggest that currently many modeled climate impacts are associated with uncertainties related to the choice of bias adjustment. We conclude that in cases where impacts depend on multiple dependent climate variables these uncertainties can be reduced using statistical bias-adjustment approaches that correct the variables' multivariate dependence structure. © 2019 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    High-resolution shear-wave seismic reflection as a tool to image near-surface subrosion structures – a case study in Bad Frankenhausen, Germany
    (Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2016) Wadas, Sonja H.; Polom, Ulrich; Krawczyk, Charlotte M.
    Subrosion is the subsurface leaching of soluble rocks that results in the formation of depression and collapse structures. This global phenomenon is a geohazard in urban areas. To study near-surface subrosion structures, four shear-wave seismic reflection profiles, with a total length of ca. 332 m, were carried out around the famous leaning church tower of Bad Frankenhausen in northern Thuringia, Germany, which shows an inclination of 4.93° from the vertical. Most of the geological underground of Thuringia is characterized by soluble Permian deposits, and the Kyffhäuser Southern Margin Fault is assumed to be a main pathway for water to leach the evaporite. The seismic profiles were acquired with the horizontal micro-vibrator ELVIS, developed at Leibniz Institute for Applied Geophysics (LIAG), and a 72 m long landstreamer equipped with 72 horizontal geophones. The high-resolution seismic sections show subrosion-induced structures to a depth of ca. 100 m and reveal five features associated with the leaching of Permian deposits: (1) lateral and vertical varying reflection patterns caused by strongly heterogeneous strata, (2) discontinuous reflectors, small offsets, and faults, which show the underground is heavily fractured, (3) formation of depression structures in the near-surface, (4) diffractions in the unmigrated seismic sections that indicate increased scattering of the seismic waves, and (5) varying seismic velocities and low-velocity zones that are presumably caused by fractures and upward-migrating cavities. A previously undiscovered southward-dipping listric normal fault was also found, to the north of the church. It probably serves as a pathway for water to leach the Permian formations below the church and causes the tilting of the church tower. This case study shows the potential of horizontal shear-wave seismic reflection to image near-surface subrosion structures in an urban environment with a horizontal resolution of less than 1 m in the uppermost 10–15 m.