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Comparison of particle number size distribution trends in ground measurements and climate models
Despite a large number of studies, out of all drivers of radiative forcing, the effect of aerosols has the largest uncertainty in global climate model radiative forcing estimates. There have been studies of aerosol optical properties in climate models, but the effects of particle number size distribution need a more thorough inspection. We investigated the trends and seasonality of particle number concentrations in nucleation, Aitken, and accumulation modes at 21 measurement sites in Europe and the Arctic. For 13 of those sites, with longer measurement time series, we compared the field observations with the results from five climate models, namely EC-Earth3, ECHAM-M7, ECHAM-SALSA, NorESM1.2, and UKESM1. This is the first extensive comparison of detailed aerosol size distribution trends between in situ observations from Europe and five earth system models (ESMs). We found that the trends of particle number concentrations were mostly consistent and decreasing in both measurements and models. However, for many sites, climate models showed weaker decreasing trends than the measurements. Seasonal variability in measured number concentrations, quantified by the ratio between maximum and minimum monthly number concentration, was typically stronger at northern measurement sites compared to other locations. Models had large differences in their seasonal representation, and they can be roughly divided into two categories: for EC-Earth and NorESM, the seasonal cycle was relatively similar for all sites, and for other models the pattern of seasonality varied between northern and southern sites. In addition, the variability in concentrations across sites varied between models, some having relatively similar concentrations for all sites, whereas others showed clear differences in concentrations between remote and urban sites. To conclude, although all of the model simulations had identical input data to describe anthropogenic mass emissions, trends in differently sized particles vary among the models due to assumptions in emission sizes and differences in how models treat size-dependent aerosol processes. The inter-model variability was largest in the accumulation mode, i.e. sizes which have implications for aerosol-cloud interactions. Our analysis also indicates that between models there is a large variation in efficiency of long-range transportation of aerosols to remote locations. The differences in model results are most likely due to the more complex effect of different processes instead of one specific feature (e.g. the representation of aerosol or emission size distributions). Hence, a more detailed characterization of microphysical processes and deposition processes affecting the long-range transport is needed to understand the model variability.
New particle formation in the Svalbard region 2006-2015
Events of new particle formation (NPF) were analyzed in a 10-year data set of hourly particle size distributions recorded on Mt. Zeppelin, Spitsbergen, Svalbard. Three different types of NPF events were identified through objective search algorithms. The first and simplest algorithm utilizes short-term increases in particle concentrations below 25 nm (PCT (percentiles) events). The second one builds on the growth of the sub-50 nm diameter median (DGR (diameter growth) events) and is most closely related to the classical "banana type" of event. The third and most complex, multiple-size approach to identifying NPF events builds on a hypothesis suggesting the concurrent production of polymer gel particles at several sizes below ca. 60 nm (MEV (multisize growth) events). As a first and general conclusion, we can state that NPF events are a summer phenomenon and not related to Arctic haze, which is a late winter to early spring feature. The occurrence of NPF events appears to be somewhat sensitive to the available data on precipitation. The seasonal distribution of solar flux suggests some photochemical control that may affect marine biological processes generating particle precursors and/or atmospheric photochemical processes that generate condensable vapors from precursor gases. Notably, the seasonal distribution of the biogenic methanesulfonate (MSA) follows that of the solar flux although it peaks before the maxima in NPF occurrence. A host of ancillary data and findings point to varying and rather complex marine biological source processes. The potential source regions for all types of new particle formation appear to be restricted to the marginal-ice and open-water areas between northeastern Greenland and eastern Svalbard. Depending on conditions, yet to be clarified new particle formation may become visible as short bursts of particles around 20 nm (PCT events), longer events involving condensation growth (DGR events), or extended events with elevated concentrations of particles at several sizes below 100 nm (MEV events). The seasonal distribution of NPF events peaks later than that of MSA and DGR, and in particular than that of MEV events, which reach into late summer and early fall with open, warm, and biologically active waters around Svalbard. Consequently, a simple model to describe the seasonal distribution of the total number of NPF events can be based on solar flux and sea surface temperature, representing environmental conditions for marine biological activity and condensation sink, controlling the balance between new particle nucleation and their condensational growth. Based on the sparse knowledge about the seasonal cycle of gel-forming marine microorganisms and their controlling factors, we hypothesize that the seasonal distribution of DGR and, more so, MEV events reflect the seasonal cycle of the gel-forming phytoplankton.
A full year of aerosol size distribution data from the central Arctic under an extreme positive Arctic Oscillation: insights from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition
The Arctic environment is rapidly changing due to accelerated warming in the region. The warming trend is driving a decline in sea ice extent, which thereby enhances feedback loops in the surface energy budget in the Arctic. Arctic aerosols play an important role in the radiative balance and hence the climate response in the region, yet direct observations of aerosols over the Arctic Ocean are limited. In this study, we investigate the annual cycle in the aerosol particle number size distribution (PNSD), particle number concentration (PNC), and black carbon (BC) mass concentration in the central Arctic during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. This is the first continuous, year-long data set of aerosol PNSD ever collected over the sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean. We use a k-means cluster analysis, FLEXPART simulations, and inverse modeling to evaluate seasonal patterns and the influence of different source regions on the Arctic aerosol population. Furthermore, we compare the aerosol observations to land-based sites across the Arctic, using both long-term measurements and observations during the year of the MOSAiC expedition (2019-2020), to investigate interannual variability and to give context to the aerosol characteristics from within the central Arctic. Our analysis identifies that, overall, the central Arctic exhibits typical seasonal patterns of aerosols, including anthropogenic influence from Arctic haze in winter and secondary aerosol processes in summer. The seasonal pattern corresponds to the global radiation, surface air temperature, and timing of sea ice melting/freezing, which drive changes in transport patterns and secondary aerosol processes. In winter, the Norilsk region in Russia/Siberia was the dominant source of Arctic haze signals in the PNSD and BC observations, which contributed to higher accumulation-mode PNC and BC mass concentrations in the central Arctic than at land-based observatories. We also show that the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) phenomenon, which was reported to achieve a record-breaking positive phase during January-March 2020, explains the unusual timing and magnitude of Arctic haze across the Arctic region compared to longer-term observations. In summer, the aerosol PNCs of the nucleation and Aitken modes are enhanced; however, concentrations were notably lower in the central Arctic over the ice pack than at land-based sites further south. The analysis presented herein provides a current snapshot of Arctic aerosol processes in an environment that is characterized by rapid changes, which will be crucial for improving climate model predictions, understanding linkages between different environmental processes, and investigating the impacts of climate change in future Arctic aerosol studies.