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- ItemImpact of temperature and precipitation extremes on the flowering dates of four German wildlife shrub species(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Siegmund, Jonatan F.; Wiedermann, Marc; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.Ongoing climate change is known to cause an increase in the frequency and amplitude of local temperature and precipitation extremes in many regions of the Earth. While gradual changes in the climatological conditions have already been shown to strongly influence plant flowering dates, the question arises if and how extremes specifically impact the timing of this important phenological phase. Studying this question calls for the application of statistical methods that are tailored to the specific properties of event time series. Here, we employ event coincidence analysis, a novel statistical tool that allows assessing whether or not two types of events exhibit similar sequences of occurrences in order to systematically quantify simultaneities between meteorological extremes and the timing of the flowering of four shrub species across Germany. Our study confirms previous findings of experimental studies by highlighting the impact of early spring temperatures on the flowering of the investigated plants. However, previous studies solely based on correlation analysis do not allow deriving explicit estimates of the strength of such interdependencies without further assumptions, a gap that is closed by our analysis. In addition to direct impacts of extremely warm and cold spring temperatures, our analysis reveals statistically significant indications of an influence of temperature extremes in the autumn preceding the flowering.
- ItemComprehensive assessment of meteorological conditions and airflow connectivity during HCCT-2010(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Tilgner, A.; Schöne, L.; Bräuer, P.; van Pinxteren, D.; Hoffmann, E.; Spindler, G.; Styler, S.A.; Mertes, S.; Birmili, W.; Otto, R.; Merkel, M.; Weinhold, K.; Wiedensohler, A.; Deneke, H.; Schrödner, R.; Wolke, R.; Schneider, J.; Haunold, W.; Engel, A.; Wéber, A.; Herrmann, H.This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the meteorological conditions and atmospheric flow during the Lagrangian-type "Hill Cap Cloud Thuringia 2010" experiment (HCCT-2010), which was performed in September and October 2010 at Mt. Schmücke in the Thuringian Forest, Germany and which used observations at three measurement sites (upwind, in-cloud, and downwind) to study physical and chemical aerosol–cloud interactions. A Lagrangian-type hill cap cloud experiment requires not only suitable cloud conditions but also connected airflow conditions (i.e. representative air masses at the different measurement sites). The primary goal of the present study was to identify time periods during the 6-week duration of the experiment in which these conditions were fulfilled and therefore which are suitable for use in further data examinations. The following topics were studied in detail: (i) the general synoptic weather situations, including the mesoscale flow conditions, (ii) local meteorological conditions and (iii) local flow conditions. The latter were investigated by means of statistical analyses using best-available quasi-inert tracers, SF6 tracer experiments in the experiment area, and regional modelling. This study represents the first application of comprehensive analyses using statistical measures such as the coefficient of divergence (COD) and the cross-correlation in the context of a Lagrangian-type hill cap cloud experiment. This comprehensive examination of local flow connectivity yielded a total of 14 full-cloud events (FCEs), which are defined as periods during which all connected flow and cloud criteria for a suitable Lagrangian-type experiment were fulfilled, and 15 non-cloud events (NCEs), which are defined as periods with connected flow but no cloud at the summit site, and which can be used as reference cases. The overall evaluation of the identified FCEs provides the basis for subsequent investigations of the measured chemical and physical data during HCCT-2010 (see https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/special_issue287.html).