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- ItemEmulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 2: Applications(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Meinshausen, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Wigley, T.M.L.Intercomparisons of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models are important for galvanizing our current scientific knowledge to project future climate. Interpreting such intercomparisons faces major challenges, not least because different models have been forced with different sets of forcing agents. Here, we show how an emulation approach with MAGICC6 can address such problems. In a companion paper (Meinshausen et al., 2011a), we show how the lower complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC6 can be calibrated to emulate, with considerable accuracy, globally aggregated characteristics of these more complex models. Building on that, we examine here the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 3 results (CMIP3). If forcing agents missed by individual AOGCMs in CMIP3 are considered, this reduces ensemble average temperature change from pre-industrial times to 2100 under SRES A1B by 0.4 °C. Differences in the results from the 1980 to 1999 base period (as reported in IPCC AR4) to 2100 are negligible, however, although there are some differences in the trajectories over the 21st century. In a second part of this study, we consider the new RCP scenarios that are to be investigated under the forthcoming CMIP5 intercomparison for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. For the highest scenario, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels, we project a median warming of around 4.6 °C by 2100 and more than 7 °C by 2300. For the lowest RCP scenario, RCP3-PD, the corresponding warming is around 1.5 °C by 2100, decreasing to around 1.1 °C by 2300 based on our AOGCM and carbon cycle model emulations. Implied cumulative CO2 emissions over the 21st century for RCP8.5 and RCP3-PD are 1881 GtC (1697 to 2034 GtC, 80% uncertainty range) and 381 GtC (334 to 488 GtC), when prescribing CO2 concentrations and accounting for uncertainty in the carbon cycle. Lastly, we assess the reasons why a previous MAGICC version (4.2) used in IPCC AR4 gave roughly 10% larger warmings over the 21st century compared to the CMIP3 average. We find that forcing differences and the use of slightly too high climate sensitivities inferred from idealized high-forcing runs were the major reasons for this difference.
- ItemLIVAS: A 3-D multi-wavelength aerosol/cloud database based on CALIPSO and EARLINET(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Amiridis, V.; Marinou, E.; Tsekeri, A.; Wandinger, U.; Schwarz, A.; Giannakaki, E.; Mamouri, R.; Kokkalis, P.; Binietoglou, I.; Solomos, S.; Herekakis, T.; Kazadzis, S.; Gerasopoulos, E.; Proestakis, E.; Kottas, M.; Balis, D.; Papayannis, A.; Kontoes, C.; Kourtidis, K.; Papagiannopoulos, N.; Mona, L.; Pappalardo, G.; Le Rille, O.; Ansmann, A.We present LIVAS (LIdar climatology of Vertical Aerosol Structure for space-based lidar simulation studies), a 3-D multi-wavelength global aerosol and cloud optical database, optimized to be used for future space-based lidar end-to-end simulations of realistic atmospheric scenarios as well as retrieval algorithm testing activities. The LIVAS database provides averaged profiles of aerosol optical properties for the potential spaceborne laser operating wavelengths of 355, 532, 1064, 1570 and 2050 nm and of cloud optical properties at the wavelength of 532 nm. The global database is based on CALIPSO observations at 532 and 1064 nm and on aerosol-type-dependent backscatter- and extinction-related Ångström exponents, derived from EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network) ground-based measurements for the UV and scattering calculations for the IR wavelengths, using a combination of input data from AERONET, suitable aerosol models and recent literature. The required spectral conversions are calculated for each of the CALIPSO aerosol types and are applied to CALIPSO backscatter and extinction data corresponding to the aerosol type retrieved by the CALIPSO aerosol classification scheme. A cloud optical database based on CALIPSO measurements at 532 nm is also provided, neglecting wavelength conversion due to approximately neutral scattering behavior of clouds along the spectral range of LIVAS. Averages of particle linear depolarization ratio profiles at 532 nm are provided as well. Finally, vertical distributions for a set of selected scenes of specific atmospheric phenomena (e.g., dust outbreaks, volcanic eruptions, wild fires, polar stratospheric clouds) are analyzed and spectrally converted so as to be used as case studies for spaceborne lidar performance assessments. The final global data set includes 4-year (1 January 2008–31 December 2011) time-averaged CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) data on a uniform grid of 1° × 1° with the original high vertical resolution of CALIPSO in order to ensure realistic simulations of the atmospheric variability in lidar end-to-end simulations.
- ItemEmulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 1: Model description and calibration(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Meinshausen, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Wigley, T.M.L.Current scientific knowledge on the future response of the climate system to human-induced perturbations is comprehensively captured by various model intercomparison efforts. In the preparation of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intercomparisons were organized for atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models, named "CMIP3" and "C4MIP", respectively. Despite their tremendous value for the scientific community and policy makers alike, there are some difficulties in interpreting the results. For example, radiative forcings were not standardized across the various AOGCM integrations and carbon cycle runs, and, in some models, key forcings were omitted. Furthermore, the AOGCM analysis of plausible emissions pathways was restricted to only three SRES scenarios. This study attempts to address these issues. We present an updated version of MAGICC, the simple carbon cycle-climate model used in past IPCC Assessment Reports with enhanced representation of time-varying climate sensitivities, carbon cycle feedbacks, aerosol forcings and ocean heat uptake characteristics. This new version, MAGICC6, is successfully calibrated against the higher complexity AOGCMs and carbon cycle models. Parameterizations of MAGICC6 are provided. The mean of the emulations presented here using MAGICC6 deviates from the mean AOGCM responses by only 2.2% on average for the SRES scenarios. This enhanced emulation skill in comparison to previous calibrations is primarily due to: making a "like-with-like comparison" using AOGCM-specific subsets of forcings; employing a new calibration procedure; as well as the fact that the updated simple climate model can now successfully emulate some of the climate-state dependent effective climate sensitivities of AOGCMs. The diagnosed effective climate sensitivity at the time of CO2 doubling for the AOGCMs is on average 2.88 °C, about 0.33 °C cooler than the mean of the reported slab ocean climate sensitivities. In the companion paper (Part 2) of this study, we examine the combined climate system and carbon cycle emulations for the complete range of IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and the new RCP pathways.
- ItemNCIO 1.0: A simple Fortran NetCDF interface(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Robinson, A.; Perrette, M.The NetCDF (Network Common Data Form) library has become an indispensable tool for data and model output management in geoscience. However for simple tasks, particularly in Fortran, the complexity of native NetCDF functionality can be cumbersome. The NCIO (NetCDF Input/Output) module has been designed as an interface to the NetCDF library with simplicity and ease of use in mind. While this implies that some NetCDF functionality is masked from the user, the subroutines provided here are adequate for basic serial reading and writing tasks of up to 6-D data arrays along with corresponding data attributes. The code is available online via a GitHub repository (http://www.github.com/alex-robinson/ncio), which includes an example program to illustrate the approach.