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- ItemThe chemistry of OH and HO2 radicals in the boundary layer over the tropical Atlantic Ocean(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2010) Whalley, L.K.; Furneaux, K.L.; Goddard, A.; Lee, J.D.; Mahajan, A.; Oetjen, H.; Read, K.A.; Kaaden, N.; Carpenter, L.J.; Lewis, A.C.; Plane, J.M.C.; Saltzman, E.S.; Wiedensohler, A.; Heard, D.E.Fluorescence Assay by Gas Expansion (FAGE) has been used to detect ambient levels of OH and HO2 radicals at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory, located in the tropical Atlantic marine boundary layer, during May and June 2007. Midday radical concentrations were high, with maximum concentrations of 9 ×106 molecule cm−3 and 6×108 molecule cm−3 observed for OH and HO2, respectively. A box model incorporating the detailed Master Chemical Mechanism, extended to include halogen chemistry, heterogeneous loss processes and constrained by all available measurements including halogen and nitrogen oxides, has been used to assess the chemical and physical parameters controlling the radical chemistry. The model was able to reproduce the daytime radical concentrations to within the 1 σ measurement uncertainty of 20% during the latter half of the measurement period but significantly under-predicted [HO2] by 39% during the first half of the project. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that elevated [HCHO] (~2 ppbv) on specific days during the early part of the project, which were much greater than the mean [HCHO] (328 pptv) used to constrain the model, could account for a large portion of the discrepancy between modelled and measured [HO2] at this time. IO and BrO, although present only at a few pptv, constituted ~19% of the instantaneous sinks for HO2, whilst aerosol uptake and surface deposition to the ocean accounted for a further 23% of the HO2 loss at noon. Photolysis of HOI and HOBr accounted for ~13% of the instantaneous OH formation. Taking into account that halogen oxides increase the oxidation of NOx (NO → NO2), and in turn reduce the rate of formation of OH from the reaction of HO2 with NO, OH concentrations were estimated to be 9% higher overall due to the presence of halogens. The increase in modelled OH from halogen chemistry gives an estimated 9% shorter lifetime for methane in this region, and the inclusion of halogen chemistry is necessary to model the observed daily cycle of O3 destruction that is observed at the surface. Due to surface losses, we hypothesise that HO2 concentrations increase with height and therefore contribute a larger fraction of the O3 destruction than at the surface.
- ItemEstimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Schneider von Deimling, T.; Meinshausen, M.; Levermann, A.; Huber, V.; Frieler, K.; Lawrence, D.M.; Brovkin, V.Thawing of permafrost and the associated release of carbon constitutes a positive feedback in the climate system, elevating the effect of anthropogenic GHG emissions on global-mean temperatures. Multiple factors have hindered the quantification of this feedback, which was not included in climate carbon-cycle models which participated in recent model intercomparisons (such as the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project – C4MIP) . There are considerable uncertainties in the rate and extent of permafrost thaw, the hydrological and vegetation response to permafrost thaw, the decomposition timescales of freshly thawed organic material, the proportion of soil carbon that might be emitted as carbon dioxide via aerobic decomposition or as methane via anaerobic decomposition, and in the magnitude of the high latitude amplification of global warming that will drive permafrost degradation. Additionally, there are extensive and poorly characterized regional heterogeneities in soil properties, carbon content, and hydrology. Here, we couple a new permafrost module to a reduced complexity carbon-cycle climate model, which allows us to perform a large ensemble of simulations. The ensemble is designed to span the uncertainties listed above and thereby the results provide an estimate of the potential strength of the feedback from newly thawed permafrost carbon. For the high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), 33–114 GtC (giga tons of Carbon) are released by 2100 (68 % uncertainty range). This leads to an additional warming of 0.04–0.23 °C. Though projected 21st century permafrost carbon emissions are relatively modest, ongoing permafrost thaw and slow but steady soil carbon decomposition means that, by 2300, about half of the potentially vulnerable permafrost carbon stock in the upper 3 m of soil layer (600–1000 GtC) could be released as CO2, with an extra 1–4 % being released as methane. Our results also suggest that mitigation action in line with the lower scenario RCP3-PD could contain Arctic temperature increase sufficiently that thawing of the permafrost area is limited to 9–23 % and the permafrost-carbon induced temperature increase does not exceed 0.04–0.16 °C by 2300.
- ItemAll-sky interferometric meteor radar meteoroid speed estimation using the Fresnel transform(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2007) Holdsworth, D.A.; Elford, W.G.; Vincent, R.A.; Reid, I.M.; Murphy, D.J.; Singer, W.Fresnel transform meteor speed estimation is investigated. A spectral based technique is developed allowing the transform to be applied at low temporal sampling rates. Simulations are used to compare meteoroid speeds determined using the Fresnel transform and alternative techniques, confirming that the Fresnel transform produces the most accurate meteoroid speed estimates for high effective pulse repetition frequencies (PRFs). The Fresnel transform is applied to high effective PRF data collected during Leonid meteor showers, producing speed estimates in good agreement with the theoretical pre-atmospheric speed of the 71 kms−1. Further simulations for the standard low effective PRF sampling parameters used for Buckland Park meteor radar (BPMR) observations suggests that the Fresnel transform can successfully estimate meteor speeds up to 80 kms−1. Fresnel transform speed estimation is applied using the BPMR, producing speed distributions similar to those obtained in previous studies. The technique is also applied to data collected using the BPMR sampling parameters during Southern delta-Aquarid and Geminid meteor showers, producing speeds in very good agreement with the theoretical pre-atmospheric speeds of these showers (41 kms−1 and 35 kms−1, respectively). However, application of the Fresnel transform to high speed showers suggests that the practical upper limit for accurate speed estimation using the BPMR sampling parameters is around 50 kms−1. This limit allows speed accurate estimates to be made for about 70% of known meteor showers, and around 70% of sporadic echoes.
- ItemEstimated desert-dust ice nuclei profiles from polarization lidar: Methodology and case studies(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Mamouri, R.E.; Ansmann, A.A lidar method is presented that permits the estimation of height profiles of ice nuclei concentrations (INC) in desert dust layers. The polarization lidar technique is applied to separate dust and non-dust backscatter and extinction coefficients. The desert dust extinction coefficients σd are then converted to aerosol particle number concentrations APC280 which consider particles with radius > 280 nm only. By using profiles of APC280 and ambient temperature T along the laser beam, the profile of INC can be estimated within a factor of 3 by means of APC-T-INC parameterizations from the literature. The observed close relationship between σd at 500 nm and APC280 is of key importance for a successful INC retrieval. We studied this link by means of AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) sun/sky photometer observations at Morocco, Cabo Verde, Barbados, and Cyprus during desert dust outbreaks. The new INC retrieval method is applied to lidar observations of dust layers with the spaceborne lidar CALIOP (Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) during two overpasses over the EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network) lidar site of the Cyprus University of Technology (CUT), Limassol (34.7° N, 33° E), Cyprus. The good agreement between the CALIOP and CUT lidar retrievals of σd, APC280, and INC profiles corroborates the potential of CALIOP to provide 3-D global desert dust APC280 and INC data sets.
- ItemN2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle – current state and future scenarios(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Bodirsky, B.L.; Popp, A.; Weindl, I.; Dietrich, J.P.; Rolinski, S.; Scheiffele, L.; Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.Reactive nitrogen (Nr) is not only an important nutrient for plant growth, thereby safeguarding human alimentation, but it also heavily disturbs natural systems. To mitigate air, land, aquatic, and atmospheric pollution caused by the excessive availability of Nr, it is crucial to understand the long-term development of the global agricultural Nr cycle. For our analysis, we combine a material flow model with a land-use optimization model. In a first step we estimate the state of the Nr cycle in 1995. In a second step we create four scenarios for the 21st century in line with the SRES storylines. Our results indicate that in 1995 only half of the Nr applied to croplands was incorporated into plant biomass. Moreover, less than 10 per cent of all Nr in cropland plant biomass and grazed pasture was consumed by humans. In our scenarios a strong surge of the Nr cycle occurs in the first half of the 21st century, even in the environmentally oriented scenarios. Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions rise from 3 Tg N2O-N in 1995 to 7–9 in 2045 and 5–12 Tg in 2095. Reinforced Nr pollution mitigation efforts are therefore required.