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- ItemPollution events observed during CARIBIC flights in the upper troposphere between South China and the Philippines(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2010) Lai, S.C.; Baker, A.K.; Schuck, T.J.; van Velthoven, P.; Oram, D.E.; Zahn, A.; Hermann, M.; Weigelt, A.; Slemr, F.; Brenninkmeijer, C.A.M.; Ziereis, H.A strong pollution episode in the upper troposphere between South China and the Philippines was observed during CARIBIC flights in April 2007. Five pollution events were observed, where enhancements in aerosol and trace gas concentrations including CO, CO2, CH4, non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and halocarbons were observed along the flight tracks during four sequential flights. The importance of the contribution of biomass/biofuel burning was investigated using chemical tracers, emission factor analysis, back-trajectory analysis and satellite images. The Indochinese peninsula was identified as the probable source region of biomass/biofuel burning. However, enhancements in the urban/industrial tracer C2Cl4 during the events also indicate a substantial contribution from urban anthropogenic emissions. An estimation of the contribution of fossil fuel versus biomass/biofuel to the CO enhancement was made, indicating a biomass/biofuel burning contribution of ~54 to ~92% of the observed CO enhancements. Biomass/biofuel burning was found to be the most important source category during the sampling period.
- ItemHistorical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6)(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Meinshausen, Malte; Vogel, Elisabeth; Nauels, Alexander; Lorbacher, Katja; Meinshausen, Nicolai; Etheridge, David M.; Fraser, Paul J.; Montzka, Stephen A.; Rayner, Peter J.; Trudinger, Cathy M.; Krummel, Paul B.; Beyerle, Urs; Canadell, Josep G.; Daniel, John S.; Enting, Ian G.; Law, Rachel M. Law; Lunder, Chris R.; O'Doherty, Simon; Prinn, Ron G.; Reimann, Stefan; Rubino, Mauro; Velders, Guus J.M.; Vollmer, Martin K.; Wang, Ray H.J.; Weiss, RayAtmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are at unprecedented, record-high levels compared to the last 800000 years. Those elevated GHG concentrations warm the planet and – partially offset by net cooling effects by aerosols – are largely responsible for the observed warming over the past 150 years. An accurate representation of GHG concentrations is hence important to understand and model recent climate change. So far, community efforts to create composite datasets of GHG concentrations with seasonal and latitudinal information have focused on marine boundary layer conditions and recent trends since the 1980s. Here, we provide consolidated datasets of historical atmospheric concentrations (mole fractions) of 43 GHGs to be used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 6 (CMIP6) experiments. The presented datasets are based on AGAGE and NOAA networks, firn and ice core data, and archived air data, and a large set of published studies. In contrast to previous intercomparisons, the new datasets are latitudinally resolved and include seasonality. We focus on the period 1850–2014 for historical CMIP6 runs, but data are also provided for the last 2000 years. We provide consolidated datasets in various spatiotemporal resolutions for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), as well as 40 other GHGs, namely 17 ozone-depleting substances, 11 hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), 9 perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) and sulfuryl fluoride (SO2F2). In addition, we provide three equivalence species that aggregate concentrations of GHGs other than CO2, CH4 and N2O, weighted by their radiative forcing efficiencies. For the year 1850, which is used for pre-industrial control runs, we estimate annual global-mean surface concentrations of CO2 at 284.3ppm, CH4 at 808.2ppb and N2O at 273.0ppb. The data are available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/ and http://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/cmip6. While the minimum CMIP6 recommendation is to use the global- and annual-mean time series, modelling groups can also choose our monthly and latitudinally resolved concentrations, which imply a stronger radiative forcing in the Northern Hemisphere winter (due to the latitudinal gradient and seasonality).
- ItemObservation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Schneider von Deimling, T.; Grosse, G.; Strauss, J.; Schirrmeister, L.; Morgenstern, A.; Schaphoff, S.; Meinshausen, M.; Boike, J.High-latitude soils store vast amounts of perennially frozen and therefore inert organic matter. With rising global temperatures and consequent permafrost degradation, a part of this carbon stock will become available for microbial decay and eventual release to the atmosphere. We have developed a simplified, two-dimensional multi-pool model to estimate the strength and timing of future carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes from newly thawed permafrost carbon (i.e. carbon thawed when temperatures rise above pre-industrial levels). We have especially simulated carbon release from deep deposits in Yedoma regions by describing abrupt thaw under newly formed thermokarst lakes. The computational efficiency of our model allowed us to run large, multi-centennial ensembles under various scenarios of future warming to express uncertainty inherent to simulations of the permafrost carbon feedback. Under moderate warming of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario, cumulated CO2 fluxes from newly thawed permafrost carbon amount to 20 to 58 petagrams of carbon (Pg-C) (68% range) by the year 2100 and reach 40 to 98 Pg-C in 2300. The much larger permafrost degradation under strong warming (RCP8.5) results in cumulated CO2 release of 42 to 141 Pg-C and 157 to 313 Pg-C (68% ranges) in the years 2100 and 2300, respectively. Our estimates only consider fluxes from newly thawed permafrost, not from soils already part of the seasonally thawed active layer under pre-industrial climate. Our simulated CH4 fluxes contribute a few percent to total permafrost carbon release yet they can cause up to 40% of total permafrost-affected radiative forcing in the 21st century (upper 68% range). We infer largest CH4 emission rates of about 50 Tg-CH4 per year around the middle of the 21st century when simulated thermokarst lake extent is at its maximum and when abrupt thaw under thermokarst lakes is taken into account. CH4 release from newly thawed carbon in wetland-affected deposits is only discernible in the 22nd and 23rd century because of the absence of abrupt thaw processes. We further show that release from organic matter stored in deep deposits of Yedoma regions crucially affects our simulated circumpolar CH4 fluxes. The additional warming through the release from newly thawed permafrost carbon proved only slightly dependent on the pathway of anthropogenic emission and amounts to about 0.03–0.14 °C (68% ranges) by end of the century. The warming increased further in the 22nd and 23rd century and was most pronounced under the RCP6.0 scenario, adding 0.16 to 0.39 °C (68% range) to simulated global mean surface air temperatures in the year 2300.
- ItemPALADYN v1.0, a comprehensive land surface-vegetation-carbon cycle model of intermediate complexity(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Willeit, Matteo; Ganopolski, AndreyPALADYN is presented; it is a new comprehensive and computationally efficient land surface–vegetation–carbon cycle model designed to be used in Earth system models of intermediate complexity for long-term simulations and paleoclimate studies. The model treats in a consistent manner the interaction between atmosphere, terrestrial vegetation and soil through the fluxes of energy, water and carbon. Energy, water and carbon are conserved. PALADYN explicitly treats permafrost, both in physical processes and as an important carbon pool. It distinguishes nine surface types: five different vegetation types, bare soil, land ice, lake and ocean shelf. Including the ocean shelf allows the treatment of continuous changes in sea level and shelf area associated with glacial cycles. Over each surface type, the model solves the surface energy balance and computes the fluxes of sensible, latent and ground heat and upward shortwave and longwave radiation. The model includes a single snow layer. Vegetation and bare soil share a single soil column. The soil is vertically discretized into five layers where prognostic equations for temperature, water and carbon are consistently solved. Phase changes of water in the soil are explicitly considered. A surface hydrology module computes precipitation interception by vegetation, surface runoff and soil infiltration. The soil water equation is based on Darcy's law. Given soil water content, the wetland fraction is computed based on a topographic index. The temperature profile is also computed in the upper part of ice sheets and in the ocean shelf soil. Photosynthesis is computed using a light use efficiency model. Carbon assimilation by vegetation is coupled to the transpiration of water through stomatal conductance. PALADYN includes a dynamic vegetation module with five plant functional types competing for the grid cell share with their respective net primary productivity. PALADYN distinguishes between mineral soil carbon, peat carbon, buried carbon and shelf carbon. Each soil carbon type has its own soil carbon pools generally represented by a litter, a fast and a slow carbon pool in each soil layer. Carbon can be redistributed between the layers by vertical diffusion and advection. For the vegetated macro surface type, decomposition is a function of soil temperature and soil moisture. Carbon in permanently frozen layers is assigned a long turnover time which effectively locks carbon in permafrost. Carbon buried below ice sheets and on flooded ocean shelves is treated differently. The model also includes a dynamic peat module. PALADYN includes carbon isotopes 13C and 14C, which are tracked through all carbon pools. Isotopic discrimination is modelled only during photosynthesis. A simple methane module is implemented to represent methane emissions from anaerobic carbon decomposition in wetlands (including peatlands) and flooded ocean shelf. The model description is accompanied by a thorough model evaluation in offline mode for the present day and the historical period.