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- ItemAgents, Bayes, and Climatic Risks - a modular modelling approach(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Haas, A.; Jaeger, C.When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine
- ItemColumnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer - First results from a feasibility study, Part III: Preliminary results on physicochemical model performance using two "clean air mass" reference scenarios(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2006) Hellmuth, O.In Paper I of four papers, a revised columnar high-order model to investigate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the convective boundary layer (CBL) was proposed. In Paper II, the model capability to predict first-, second- and third-order moments of meteorological variables in the CBL was demonstrated using available observational data. In the present Paper III, the high-order modelling concept is extended to sulphur and ammonia chemistry as well as to aerosol dynamics. Based on the previous CBL simulation, a feasibility study is performed using two "clean air mass" scenarios with an emission source at the ground but low aerosol background concentration. Such scenarios synoptically correspond to the advection of fresh post-frontal air in an anthropogenically influenced region. The aim is to evaluate the time-height evolution of ultrafine condensation nuclei (UCNs) and to elucidate the interactions between meteorological and physicochemical variables in a CBL column. The scenarios differ in the treatment of new particle formation (NPF), whereas homogeneous nucleation according to the classical nucleation theory (CNT) is considered. The first scenario considers nucleation of a binary system consisting of water vapour and sulphuric acid (H2SO4) vapour, the second one nucleation of a ternary system additionally involving ammonia (NH3). Here, the two synthetic scenarios are discussed in detail, whereas special attention is payed to the role of turbulence in the formation of the typical UCN burst behaviour, that can often be observed in the surface layer. The intercomparison of the two scenarios reveals large differences in the evolution of the UCN number concentration in the surface layer as well as in the time-height cross-sections of first-order moments and double correlation terms. Although in both cases the occurrence of NPF bursts could be simulated, the burst characteristics and genesis of the bursts are completely different. It is demonstrated, that observations from the surface layer alone are not conclusive to elucidate the origin of newly formed particles. This is also true with respect to the interpretation of box modelling studies. The binary and ternary NPF bursts observed in the surface layer differ with respect to burst amplitude and phase. New particles simulated in the binary scenario are formed in the forenoon in the upper part of the growing CBL, followed by turbulence-induced top-down transport. Hence, with respect to the burst observation site in the surface layer, new particles are formed ex situ. In opposite to this, the ternary case reveals a much more complex pattern. Here, NPF is initiated in the early morning hours in the surface layer, when temperature (T) is low and relative humidity (RH), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and NH3 concentrations are high, hence new particles are formed in situ. Shortly after that, ex situ NPF in the free troposphere sets in, followed by entrainment and top-down diffusion of newly formed particles into the surface layer. Altogether, these processes mainly contribute to the formation of a strong burst in the morning hours in the ternary scenario. While the time-height cross-section of the binary nucleation rate resembles a "blob"-like evolution pattern, the ternary one resembles a "sucking tube"-like pattern. The time-height cross-sections of the flux pattern and double correlations could be plausibly interpreted in terms of CBL turbulence and entrainment/detrainment processes both in the binary and in the ternary case. Although the present approach is a pure conceptual one, it shows the feasibility to simulate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the CBL. Prior to a dedicated verification/validation study, further attempts are necessary to consider a more advanced description of the formation and activation of thermodynamically stable clusters according to modern concepts proposed by Kulmala et al. (2000), Kulmala (2003) and Kulmala et al. (2004a).
- ItemHeterogeneous ice nucleation: Exploring the transition from stochastic to singular freezing behavior(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Niedermeier, D.; Shaw, R.A.; Hartmann, S.; Wex, H.; Clauss, T.; Voigtländer, J.; Stratmann, F.Heterogeneous ice nucleation, a primary pathway for ice formation in the atmosphere, has been described alternately as being stochastic, in direct analogy with homogeneous nucleation, or singular, with ice nuclei initiating freezing at deterministic temperatures. We present an idealized, conceptual model to explore the transition between stochastic and singular ice nucleation. This "soccer ball" model treats particles as being covered with surface sites (patches of finite area) characterized by different nucleation barriers, but with each surface site following the stochastic nature of ice embryo formation. The model provides a phenomenological explanation for seemingly contradictory experimental results obtained in our research groups. Even with ice nucleation treated fundamentally as a stochastic process this process can be masked by the heterogeneity of surface properties, as might be typical for realistic atmospheric particle populations. Full evaluation of the model findings will require experiments with well characterized ice nucleating particles and the ability to vary both temperature and waiting time for freezing.
- ItemExplicit modeling of volatile organic compounds partitioning in the atmospheric aqueous phase(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2013) Mouchel-Vallon, C.; Bräuer, P.; Camredon, M.; Valorso, R.; Madronich, S.; Hermann, M.; Aumont, B.The gas phase oxidation of organic species is a multigenerational process involving a large number of secondary compounds. Most secondary organic species are water-soluble multifunctional oxygenated molecules. The fully explicit chemical mechanism GECKO-A (Generator of Explicit Chemistry and Kinetics of Organics in the Atmosphere) is used to describe the oxidation of organics in the gas phase and their mass transfer to the aqueous phase. The oxidation of three hydrocarbons of atmospheric interest (isoprene, octane and α-pinene) is investigated for various NOx conditions. The simulated oxidative trajectories are examined in a new two dimensional space defined by the mean oxidation state and the solubility. The amount of dissolved organic matter was found to be very low (yield less than 2% on carbon atom basis) under a water content typical of deliquescent aerosols. For cloud water content, 50% (isoprene oxidation) to 70% (octane oxidation) of the carbon atoms are found in the aqueous phase after the removal of the parent hydrocarbons for low NOx conditions. For high NOx conditions, this ratio is only 5% in the isoprene oxidation case, but remains large for α-pinene and octane oxidation cases (40% and 60%, respectively). Although the model does not yet include chemical reactions in the aqueous phase, much of this dissolved organic matter should be processed in cloud drops and modify both oxidation rates and the speciation of organic species.
- ItemOn the formation of sulphuric acid – Amine clusters in varying atmospheric conditions and its influence on atmospheric new particle formation(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Paasonen, P.; Olenius, T.; Kupiainen, O.; Kurtén, T.; Petäjä, T.; Birmili, W.; Hamed, A.; Hu, M.; Huey, L.G.; Plass-Duelmer, C.; Smith, J.N.; Wiedensohler, A.; Loukonen, V.; McGrath, M.J.; Ortega, I.K.; Laaksonen, A.; Vehkamäki, H.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Kulmala, M.Sulphuric acid is a key component in atmospheric new particle formation. However, sulphuric acid alone does not form stable enough clusters to initiate particle formation in atmospheric conditions. Strong bases, such as amines, have been suggested to stabilize sulphuric acid clusters and thus participate in particle formation. We modelled the formation rate of clusters with two sulphuric acid and two amine molecules (JA2B2) at varying atmospherically relevant conditions with respect to concentrations of sulphuric acid ([H2SO4]), dimethylamine ([DMA]) and trimethylamine ([TMA]), temperature and relative humidity (RH). We also tested how the model results change if we assume that the clusters with two sulphuric acid and two amine molecules would act as seeds for heterogeneous nucleation of organic vapours (other than amines) with higher atmospheric concentrations than sulphuric acid. The modelled formation rates JA2B2 were functions of sulphuric acid concentration with close to quadratic dependence, which is in good agreement with atmospheric observations of the connection between the particle formation rate and sulphuric acid concentration. The coefficients KA2B2 connecting the cluster formation rate and sulphuric acid concentrations as JA2B2=KA2B2[H2SO4]2 turned out to depend also on amine concentrations, temperature and relative humidity. We compared the modelled coefficients KA2B2 with the corresponding coefficients calculated from the atmospheric observations (Kobs) from environments with varying temperatures and levels of anthropogenic influence. By taking into account the modelled behaviour of JA2B2 as a function of [H2SO4], temperature and RH, the atmospheric particle formation rate was reproduced more closely than with the traditional semi-empirical formulae based on sulphuric acid concentration only. The formation rates of clusters with two sulphuric acid and two amine molecules with different amine compositions (DMA or TMA or one of both) had different responses to varying meteorological conditions and concentrations of vapours participating in particle formation. The observed inverse proportionality of the coefficient Kobs with RH and temperature agreed best with the modelled coefficient KA2B2 related to formation of a cluster with two H2SO4 and one or two TMA molecules, assuming that these clusters can grow in collisions with abundant organic vapour molecules. In case this assumption is valid, our results suggest that the formation rate of clusters with at least two of both sulphuric acid and amine molecules might be the rate-limiting step for atmospheric particle formation. More generally, our analysis elucidates the sensitivity of the atmospheric particle formation rate to meteorological variables and concentrations of vapours participating in particle formation (also other than H2SO4).
- ItemGeneral overview: European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality interactions (EUCAARI) – integrating aerosol research from nano to global scales(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Kulmala, M.; Asmi, A.; Lappalainen, H.K.; Carslaw, K.S.; Pöschl, U.; Baltensperger, U.; Hov, Ø.; Brenquier, J.-L.; Pandis, S.N.; Facchini, M.C.; Hansson, H.-C.; Wiedensohler, A.; O'Dowd, C.D.; Boers, R.; Boucher, O.; de Leeuw, G.; Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.; Feichter, J.; Krejci, R.; Laj, P.; Lihavainen, H.; Lohmann, U.; McFiggans, G.; Mentel, T.; Pilinis, C.; Riipinen, I.; Schulz, M.; Stohl, A.; Swietlicki, E.; Vignati, E.; Alves, C.; Amann, M.; Ammann, M.; Arabas, S.; Artaxo, P.; Baars, H.; Beddows, D.C.S.; Bergström, R.; Beukes, J.P.; Bilde, M.; Burkhart, J.F.; Canonaco, F.; Clegg, S.L.; Coe, H.; Crumeyrolle, S.; D'Anna, B.; Decesari, S.; Gilardoni, S.; Fischer, M.; Fjaeraa, A.M.; Fountoukis, C.; George, C.; Gomes, L.; Halloran, P.; Hamburger, T.; Harrison, R.M.; Herrmann, H.; Hoffmann, T.; Hoose, C.; Hu, M.; Hyvärinen, A.; Hõrrak, U.; Iinuma, Y.; Iversen, T.; Josipovic, M.; Kanakidou, M.; Kiendler-Scharr, A.; Kirkevåg, A.; Kiss, G.; Klimont, Z.; Kolmonen, P.; Komppula, M.; Kristjánsson, J.-E.; Laakso, L.; Laaksonen, A.; Labonnote, L.; Lanz, V.A.; Lehtinen, K.E.J.; Rizzo, L.V.; Makkonen, R.; Manninen, H.E.; McMeeking, G.; Merikanto, J.; Minikin, A.; Mirme, S.; Morgan, W.T.; Nemitz, E.; O'Donnell, D.; Panwar, T.S.; Pawlowska, H.; Petzold, A.; Pienaar, J.J.; Pio, C.; Plass-Duelmer, C.; Prévôt, A.S.H.; Pryor, S.; Reddington, C.L.; Roberts, G.; Rosenfeld, D.; Schwarz, J.; Seland, Ø.; Sellegri, K.; Shen, X.J.; Shiraiwa, M.; Siebert, H.; Sierau, B.; Simpson, D.; Sun, J.Y.; Topping, D.; Tunved, P.; Vaattovaara, P.; Vakkari, V.; Veefkind, J.P.; Visschedijk, A.; Vuollekoski, H.; Vuolo, R.; Wehner, B.; Wildt, J.; Woodward, S.; Worsnop, D.R.; van Zadelhoff, G.-J.; Zardini, A.A.; Zhang, K.; van Zyl, P.G.; Kerminen, V.-M.In this paper we describe and summarize the main achievements of the European Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions project (EUCAARI). EUCAARI started on 1 January 2007 and ended on 31 December 2010 leaving a rich legacy including: (a) a comprehensive database with a year of observations of the physical, chemical and optical properties of aerosol particles over Europe, (b) comprehensive aerosol measurements in four developing countries, (c) a database of airborne measurements of aerosols and clouds over Europe during May 2008, (d) comprehensive modeling tools to study aerosol processes fron nano to global scale and their effects on climate and air quality. In addition a new Pan-European aerosol emissions inventory was developed and evaluated, a new cluster spectrometer was built and tested in the field and several new aerosol parameterizations and computations modules for chemical transport and global climate models were developed and evaluated. These achievements and related studies have substantially improved our understanding and reduced the uncertainties of aerosol radiative forcing and air quality-climate interactions. The EUCAARI results can be utilized in European and global environmental policy to assess the aerosol impacts and the corresponding abatement strategies.
- ItemColumnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer - First results from a feasibility study, Part IV: A compilation of previous observations for valuation of simulation results from a columnar modelling study(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2006) Hellmuth, O.In the preceding Papers I, II and III a revised columnar high-order modelling approach to model gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the convective boundary layer (CBL) was proposed, and simulation results of two synthetic nucleation scenarios (binary vs. ternary) on new particle formation (NPF) in the anthropogenically influenced CBL were presented and discussed. The purpose of the present finishing Paper IV is twofold: Firstly, an attempt is made to compile previous observational findings on NPF bursts in the CBL, obtained from a number of field experiments. Secondly, the scenario simulations discussed in Paper III will be evaluated with respect to the role of CBL turbulence in NPF burst evolution. It was demonstrated, that completely different nucleation mechanisms can lead to the occurrence of NPF bursts in the surface layer, but the corresponding evolution patterns strongly differ with respect to the origin, amplitude and phase of the NPF burst as well as with respect to the time-height evolution of turbulent vertical fluxes and double correlation terms of physicochemical and aerosoldynamical variables. The large differences between the binary and ternary case scenario indicate, that ammonia (NH3) can not be considered as a time-independent tuning parameter in nucleation modelling. Its contribution to the evolution of the NPF burst pattern is much more complicated and reflects the influence of CBL turbulence as well as the strong non-linearity of the ternary nucleation rate. The impact of water (H2O) vapour on the nucleation rate is quite varying depending on the considered nucleation mechanism. According to the classical theory of binary nucleation involving H2O and sulphuric acid (H2SO4), H2O vapour favours NPF, according to the classical theory of ternary nuncleation involving H2O, H2SO4 and NH3 and according to organic nucleation via chemical reactions involving stabilised Criegee intermediates (SCIs), H2O vapour disfavours nucleation, and according to the parameterisation of the collision-controlled binary nucleation rate proposed by Weber et al. (1996), H2O vapour does not explicitly affect the particle formation. Since the H2SO4 concentration is overpredicted in the simulations presented in Paper III, the nucleation rates are too high compared to previous estimations. Therefore, the results are not directly comparable to measurements. Especially NPF events, where organics are suspected to play a key role, such as those observed at the boreal forest station in Hyytiälä (Southern Finland) or at Hohenpeissenberg (mountain site in Southern Germany), can not be explained by employing simple sulphur/ammonia chemistry. However, some valuable hints regarding the role of CBL turbulence in NPF can be obtained. In the literature a number of observations on the link between turbulence and NPF can be found, whose burst patterns support a strong contribution of CBL turbulence to the NPF burst evolution simulated here. Observations, that do not correspond to the scenarios are discussed with respect to possible reasons for the differences between model and observation. The model simulations support some state-of-the-art hypotheses on the contribution of CBL turbulence to NPF. Considering the application of box models, the present study shows, that CBL turbulence, not explicitly considered in such models, can strongly affect the spatio-temporal NPF burst evolution. The columnar high-order model presented here is a helpful tool to elucidate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions, especially the genesis of NPF bursts in the CBL. An advanced description of the cluster formation and condensation growth is required as well as a comprehensive verification/validation study using observed high-order moments. Further scenario simulations remain to be performed.
- ItemIce phase in altocumulus clouds over Leipzig: Remote sensing observations and detailed modeling(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Simmel, M.; Bühl, J.; Ansmann, A.; Tegen, I.The present work combines remote sensing observations and detailed cloud modeling to investigate two altocumulus cloud cases observed over Leipzig, Germany. A suite of remote sensing instruments was able to detect primary ice at rather high temperatures of −6 °C. For comparison, a second mixed phase case at about −25 °C is introduced. To further look into the details of cloud microphysical processes, a simple dynamics model of the Asai-Kasahara (AK) type is combined with detailed spectral microphysics (SPECS) forming the model system AK-SPECS. Vertical velocities are prescribed to force the dynamics, as well as main cloud features, to be close to the observations. Subsequently, sensitivity studies with respect to ice microphysical parameters are carried out with the aim to quantify the most important sensitivities for the cases investigated. For the cases selected, the liquid phase is mainly determined by the model dynamics (location and strength of vertical velocity), whereas the ice phase is much more sensitive to the microphysical parameters (ice nucleating particle (INP) number, ice particle shape). The choice of ice particle shape may induce large uncertainties that are on the same order as those for the temperature-dependent INP number distribution.