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Publisher: Munich : EGU × Subject: hydrological modeling ×

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Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
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    Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption
    (Munich : EGU, 2021) Jans, Yvonne; von Bloh, Werner; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Müller, Christoph
    Being an extensively produced natural fiber on earth, cotton is of importance for economies. Although the plant is broadly adapted to varying environments, the growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To study the impacts of climate change on cotton productivity in different regions across the world and the irrigation water requirements related to it, we use the process-based, spatially detailed biosphere and hydrology model LPJmL (Lund Potsdam Jena managed land). We find our modeled cotton yield levels in good agreement with reported values and simulated water consumption of cotton production similar to published estimates. Following the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) protocol, we employ an ensemble of five general circulation models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2011 2099 period to simulate future cotton yields. We find that irrigated cotton production does not suffer from climate change if CO2 effects are considered, whereas rainfed production is more sensitive to varying climate conditions. Considering the overall effect of a changing climate and CO2 fertilization, cotton production on current cropland steadily increases for most of the RCPs. Starting from _ 65 million tonnes in 2010, cotton production for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 equates to 83 and 92 million tonnes at the end of the century, respectively. Under RCP8.5, simulated global cotton production rises by more than 50% by 2099. Taking only climate change into account, projected cotton production considerably shrinks in most scenarios, by up to one-Third or 43 million tonnes under RCP8.5. The simulation of future virtual water content (VWC) of cotton grown under elevated CO2 results for all scenarios in less VWC compared to ambient CO2 conditions. Under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, VWC is notably decreased by more than 2000m3 t1 in areas where cotton is produced under purely rainfed conditions. By 2040, the average global VWC for cotton declines in all scenarios from currently 3300 to 3000m3 t1, and reduction continues by up to 30% in 2100 under RCP8.5. While the VWC decreases by the CO2 effect, elevated temperature acts in the opposite direction. Ignoring beneficial CO2 effects, global VWC of cotton would increase for all RCPs except RCP2.6, reaching more than 5000m3 t1 by the end of the simulation period under RCP8.5. Given the economic relevance of cotton production, climate change poses an additional stress and deserves special attention. Changes in VWC and water demands for cotton production are of special importance, as cotton production is known for its intense water consumption. The implications of climate impacts on cotton production on the one hand and the impact of cotton production on water resources on the other hand illustrate the need to assess how future climate change may affect cotton production and its resource requirements. Our results should be regarded as optimistic, because of high uncertainty with respect to CO2 fertilization and the lack of implementing processes of boll abscission under heat stress. Still, the inclusion of cotton in LPJmL allows for various large-scale studies to assess impacts of climate change on hydrological factors and the implications for agricultural production and carbon sequestration. © 2021 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved.
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    Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study
    (Munich : EGU, 2021) Reinecke, Robert; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Trautmann, Tim; Andersen, Lauren Seaby; Burek, Peter; Flörke, Martina; Gosling, Simon N.; Grillakis, Manolis; Hanasaki, Naota; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Pokhrel, Yadu; Thiery, Wim; Wada, Yoshihide; Yusuke, Satoh; Döll, Petra
    Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change will impact groundwater systems globally and, thus, the availability of this vital resource. Groundwater recharge is an important indicator for groundwater availability, but it is a water flux that is difficult to estimate as uncertainties in the water balance accumulate, leading to possibly large errors in particular in dry regions. This study investigates uncertainties in groundwater recharge projections using a multi-model ensemble of eight global hydrological models (GHMs) that are driven by the bias-adjusted output of four global circulation models (GCMs). Pre-industrial and current groundwater recharge values are compared with recharge for different global warming (GW) levels as a result of three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results suggest that projected changes strongly vary among the different GHM–GCM combinations, and statistically significant changes are only computed for a few regions of the world. Statistically significant GWR increases are projected for northern Europe and some parts of the Arctic, East Africa, and India. Statistically significant decreases are simulated in southern Chile, parts of Brazil, central USA, the Mediterranean, and southeastern China. In some regions, reversals of groundwater recharge trends can be observed with global warming. Because most GHMs do not simulate the impact of changing atmospheric CO2 and climate on vegetation and, thus, evapotranspiration, we investigate how estimated changes in GWR are affected by the inclusion of these processes. In some regions, inclusion leads to differences in groundwater recharge changes of up to 100 mm per year. Most GHMs with active vegetation simulate less severe decreases in groundwater recharge than GHMs without active vegetation and, in some regions, even increases instead of decreases are simulated. However, in regions where GCMs predict decreases in precipitation and where groundwater availability is the most important, model agreement among GHMs with active vegetation is the lowest. Overall, large uncertainties in the model outcomes suggest that additional research on simulating groundwater processes in GHMs is necessary.
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    Compiling geophysical and geological information into a 3-D model of the glacially-affected island of Föhr
    (Munich : EGU, 2012) Burschil, T.; Scheer, W.; Kirsch, R.; Wiederhold, H.
    Within the scope of climatic change and associated sea level rise, coastal aquifers are endangered and are becoming more a focus of research to ensure the future water supply in coastal areas. For groundwater modelling a good understanding of the geological/hydrogeological situation and the aquifer behavior is necessary. In preparation of groundwater modelling and assessment of climate change impacts on coastal water resources, we setup a geological/hydrogeological model for the North Sea Island of Föhr. Data from different geophysical methods applied from the air, the surface and in boreholes contribute to the 3-D model, e.g. airborne electromagnetics (SkyTEM) for spatial mapping the resistivity of the entire island, seismic reflections for detailed cross-sections in the groundwater catchment area, and geophysical borehole logging for calibration of these measurements. An iterative and integrated evaluation of the results from the different geophysical methods contributes to reliable data as input for the 3-D model covering the whole island and not just the well fields. The complex subsurface structure of the island is revealed. The local waterworks use a freshwater body embedded in saline groundwater. Several glaciations reordered the youngest Tertiary and Quaternary sediments by glaciotectonic thrust faulting, as well as incision and refill of glacial valleys. Both subsurface structures have a strong impact on the distribution of freshwater-bearing aquifers. A digital geological 3-D model reproduces the hydrogeological structure of the island as a base for a groundwater model. In the course of the data interpretation, we deliver a basis for rock identification. We demonstrate that geophysical investigation provide petrophysical parameters and improve the understanding of the subsurface and the groundwater system. The main benefit of our work is that the successful combination of electromagnetic, seismic and borehole data reveals the complex geology of a glacially-affected island. A sound understanding of the subsurface structure and the compilation of a 3-D model is imperative and the basis for a groundwater flow model to predict climate change effects on future water resources.
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    Impacts of a capillary barrier on infiltration and subsurface stormflow in layered slope deposits monitored with 3-D ERT and hydrometric measurements
    (Munich : EGU, 2017) Hübner, Rico; Günther, Thomas; Heller, Katja; Noell, Ursula; Kleber, Arno
    Identifying principles of water movement in the shallow subsurface is crucial for adequate process-based hydrological models. Hillslopes are the essential interface for water movement in catchments. The shallow subsurface on slopes typically consists of different layers with varying characteristics. The aim of this study was to draw conclusions about the infiltration behaviour, to identify water flow pathways and derive some general interpretations for the validity of the water movement on a hillslope with periglacial slope deposits (cover beds), where the layers differ in their sedimentological and hydrological properties. Especially the described varying influence of the basal layer (LB) as an impeding layer on the one hand and as a remarkable pathway for rapid subsurface stormflow on the other. We used a time lapse 3-D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) approach combined with punctual hydrometric data to trace the spreading and the progression of an irrigation plume in layered slope deposits during two irrigation experiments. This multi-technical approach enables us to connect the high spatial resolution of the 3-D ERT with the high temporal resolution of the hydrometric devices. Infiltration through the uppermost layer was dominated by preferential flow, whereas the water flow in the deeper layers was mainly matrix flow. Subsurface stormflow due to impeding characteristic of the underlying layer occurs in form of "organic layer interflow" and at the interface to the first basal layer (LB1). However, the main driving factor for subsurface stormflow is the formation of a capillary barrier at the interface to the second basal layer (LB2). The capillary barrier prevents water from entering the deeper layer under unsaturated conditions and diverts the seepage water according to the slope inclination. With higher saturation, the capillary barrier breaks down and water reaches the highly conductive deeper layer. This highlights the importance of the capillary barrier effect for the prevention or activation of different flow pathways under variable hydrological conditions.