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- ItemEntrainment and mixing at the interface of shallow cumulus clouds: Results from a combination of observations and simulations(Stuttgart : Schweizerbart, 2014) Hoffmann, Fabian; Siebert, Holger; Schumacher, Jörg; Riechelmann, Theres; Katzwinkel, Jeannine; Kumar, Bipin; Götzfried, Paul; Raasch, SiegfriedThis study combines observations, large-eddy simulations (LES), and direct numerical simulations (DNS) in order to analyze entrainment and mixing in shallow cumulus clouds at all relevant spatial scales and, additionally, to verify the results by the multiple methods used. The observations are based on three flights of the CARRIBA campaign which are similar to the classical BOMEX case used for LES. Virtual flights in the LES data are used to validate the observational method of line measurements. It is shown that line measurements overrepresent the cloud core, and it is quantified how derived statistics depend on small perturbations of the flight track, which has to be taken in account for the interpretation of airborne observations. A linear relation between fluctuations of temperature and liquid water content has been found in both LES and observations in a good quantitative agreement. However, the constant of proportionality deviates from purely adiabatic estimates, which can be attributed to cloud edge mixing. The cloud edge is compared in detail in observations and LES, which agree qualitatively although the LES cloud edge is smoother due to the model's resolution. The resulting typical amplitudes of the turbulence fields from this comparison are compared with the large-scale forcing model which is used in a series of DNS which study the mixing below the meter scale, which show that LES does not resolve the intermittency of small-scale turbulence.
- ItemCharacterisation and predictability of a strong and a weak forcing severe convective event – a multi-data approach(Stuttgart : Schweizerbart, 2015) Wapler, Kathrin; Harnisch, Florian; Pardowitz, Tobias; Senf, FabianTwo severe summer-time convective events in Germany are investigated which can be classified by the prevailing synoptic conditions into a strong and a weak forcing case. The strong forcing case exhibits a larger scale precipitation pattern caused by frontal ascent whereas scattered convection is dominating the convective activity in the weak forcing case. Other distinguished differences between the cases are faster movement of convective cells and larger regions with significant loss mainly due to severe gusts in the strong forcing case. A comprehensive set of various observations is used to characterise the two different events. The observations include measurements from a lightning detection network, precipitation radar, geostationary satellite and weather stations, as well as information from an automated cell detection algorithm based on radar reflectivity which is combined with severe weather reports, and damage data from insurances. Forecast performance at various time scales is analysed ranging from nowcasting and warning to short-range forecasting. Various methods and models are examined, including human warnings, observation-based nowcasting algorithms and high-resolution ensemble prediction systems. The analysis shows the advantages of a multi-sensor and multi-source approach in characterising convective events and their impacts. Using data from various sources allows to combine the different strengths of observational data sets, especially in terms of spatial coverage or data accuracy, e.g. damage data from insurances provide good spatial coverage with little meteorological information while measurements at weather stations provide accurate but pointwise observations. Furthermore, using data from multiple sources allow for a better understanding of the convective life cycle. Several parameters from different instruments are shown to have a predictive skill for convective development, these include satellite-based cloud-top cooling rates as measure for intensive convective growth, 3D-radar reflectivity, mesocyclone detection from doppler radar, overshooting top detection or lightning jumps to evaluate storm intensification and formation of severe weather. This synergetic approach can help to improve nowcasting algorihtms and thus the warning process. The predictability of the analysed severe convective events differs with different types of forcing which is reflected in both, convective-scale ensemble prediction system forecasts and human weather warnings. Human warnings show larger false alarm rates in the weak forcing case. Ensemble predictions are able to capture the characteristics of the convective precipitation. The forecast skill is connected strongly to the synoptic situation and the presence of large-scale forcing increases the forecast skill. This has to be considered for potential future warn-on-forecast strategies.
- ItemInitial phase of the Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research - A virtual centre at the interface of basic and applied weather and climate research(Stuttgart : Schweizerbart, 2014) Weissmann, Martin; Göber, Martin; Hohenegger, Cathy; Janjic, Tijana; Keller, Jan; Ohlwein, Christian; Seifert, Axel; Trömel, Silke; Ulbrich, Thorsten; Wapler, Kathrin; Bollmeyer, Christoph; Deneke, HartwigThe Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research is a network of German universities, research institutes and the German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD). It has been established to trigger and intensify basic research and education on weather forecasting and climate monitoring. The performed research ranges from nowcasting and short-term weather forecasting to convective-scale data assimilation, the development of parameterizations for numerical weather prediction models, climate monitoring and the communication and use of forecast information. Scientific findings from the network contribute to better understanding of the life-cycle of shallow and deep convection, representation of uncertainty in ensemble systems, effects of unresolved variability, regional climate variability, perception of forecasts and vulnerability of society. Concrete developments within the research network include dual observation-microphysics composites, satellite forward operators, tools to estimate observation impact, cloud and precipitation system tracking algorithms, large-eddy-simulations, a regional reanalysis and a probabilistic forecast test product. Within three years, the network has triggered a number of activities that include the training and education of young scientists besides the centre's core objective of complementing DWD's internal research with relevant basic research at universities and research institutes. The long term goal is to develop a self-sustaining research network that continues the close collaboration with DWD and the national and international research community.
- ItemMultiphase fossil normal faults as geothermal exploration targets in the Western Bavarian Molasse Basin: Case study Mauerstetten(Stuttgart : Schweizerbart, 2018) Mraz, Elena; Moeck, Inga; Bissmann, Silke; Hild, StephanMraz, E., Moeck, I., Bissmann, S. & Hild, S. (2018): Multiphase fossil normal faults as geothermal exploration targets in the Western Bavarian Molasse Basin: Case study Mauerstetten. – Z. Dt. Ges. Geowiss., 169: 389–411, Stuttgart. The Bavarian Molasse Basin represents a peripheral foreland basin hosting abundant hydrothermal resources in 3–5 km deep Upper Jurassic carbonate rocks. Faults and facies play a major role in targeting production wells; however the kinematic evolution of fault zones and the classification of carbonate facies of the Upper Jurassic are still debated. At the geothermal prospect Mauerstetten in the Western Bavarian Molasse Basin, a geothermal well and a side track are drilled along and about 650 m off an ENE–WSW striking normal fault. A stratigraphy related fault throw analysis of six 2D seismic sections crossing this fault evidences multiphase normal faulting from Cretaceous to Upper Miocene with a major activity phase in the Oligocene. This fault, inactive since Upper Miocene, is presumably a fossil normal fault in the present-day stress field that has a maximum horizontal stress direction in N–S. Analysis of carbonate facies by thin section petrography of drill cuttings and geophysical borehole logs lead to two major conclusions: (i) the reservoir rock represents low permeable platform limestones, reef detritus and dolostones of the Franconian facies, and (ii) the fault consists of multiple normal faulting steps with higher permeability than in intact rock. This observation suggests a fracture controlled reservoir with permeable damage zones in a tight rock mass along reactivated normal faults.