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- ItemHow organized is deep convection over Germany?(Weinheim [u.a.] : Wiley, 2019) Pscheidt, Ieda; Senf, Fabian; Heinze, Rieke; Deneke, Hartwig; Trömel, Silke; Hohenegger, CathyDeep moist convection shows a tendency to organize into mesoscale structures. To be able to understand the potential effect of convective organization on the climate, one needs first to characterize organization. In this study, we systematically characterize the organizational state of convection over Germany based on two years of cloud-top observations derived from the Meteosat Second Generation satellite and of precipitation cores detected by the German C-band radar network. The organizational state of convection is characterized by commonly employed organization indices, which are mostly based on the object numbers, sizes and nearest-neighbour distances. According to the organization index Iorg, cloud tops and precipitation cores are found to be in an organized state for 69% and 92% of the time, respectively. There is an increase in rainfall when the number of objects and their sizes increase, independently of the organizational state. Case-studies of specific days suggest that convectively organized states correspond to either local multi-cell clusters, with less numerous, larger objects close to each other, or to scattered clusters, with more numerous, smaller organized objects spread out over the domain. For those days, simulations are performed with the large-eddy model ICON with grid spacings of 625, 312 and 156 m. Although the model underestimates rainfall and shows a too large cold cloud coverage, the organizational state is reasonably well represented without significant differences between the grid spacings.
- ItemOn the genesis and dynamics of Madden–Julian oscillation‐like structure formed by equatorial adjustment of localized heating(Weinheim [u.a.] : Wiley, 2022) Rostami, Masoud; Zhao, Bowen; Petri, StefanBy means of a new multilayer pseudo‐spectral moist‐convective thermal rotating shallow‐water (mcTRSW) model in a full sphere, we present a possible equatorial adjustment beyond Gill's mechanism for the genesis and dynamics of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). According to this theory, an eastward‐propagating MJO‐like structure can be generated in a self‐sustained and self‐propelled manner due to nonlinear relaxation (adjustment) of a large‐scale positive buoyancy anomaly, depressed anomaly, or a combination of these, as soon as this anomaly reaches a critical threshold in the presence of moist convection at the Equator. This MJO‐like episode possesses a convectively coupled “hybrid structure” that consists of a “quasi‐equatorial modon” with an enhanced vortex pair and a convectively coupled baroclinic Kelvin wave (BKW), with greater phase speed than that of dipolar structure on an intraseasonal time‐scale. Interaction of the BKW, after circumnavigating the entire Equator, with a new large‐scale buoyancy anomaly may contribute to excitation of a recurrent generation of the next cycle of MJO‐like structure. Overall, the generated “hybrid structure” captures a few of the crudest features of the MJO, including its quadrupolar structure, convective activity, condensation patterns, vorticity field, phase speed, and westerly and easterly inflows in the lower and upper troposphere. Although moisture‐fed convection is a necessary condition for the “hybrid structure” to be excited and maintained in the proposed theory in this study, it is fundamentally different from moisture‐mode theories, because the barotropic equatorial modon and BKW also exist in “dry” environments, while there are no similar “dry” dynamical basic structures in moisture‐mode theories. The proposed theory can therefore be a possible mechanism to explain the genesis and backbone structure of the MJO and to converge some theories that previously seemed divergent. By means of a new multilayer pseudo‐spectral moist‐convective thermal rotating shallow‐water model in a full sphere, we present a mechanism in which geostrophic adjustment of large‐scale localized heating in the lower troposphere over the equatorial zone can lead to generation of a structure similar to that of the Madden–Julian oscillation.
- ItemThe influence of aggregation and statistical post‐processing on the subseasonal predictability of European temperatures(Weinheim [u.a.] : Wiley, 2020) Straaten, Chiem; Whan, Kirien; Coumou, Dim; Hurk, Bart; Schmeits, MauriceThe succession of European surface weather patterns has limited predictability because disturbances quickly transfer to the large-scale flow. Some aggregated statistics, however, such as the average temperature exceeding a threshold, can have extended predictability when adequate spatial scales, temporal scales and thresholds are chosen. This study benchmarks how the forecast skill horizon of probabilistic 2-m temperature forecasts from the subseasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) evolves with varying scales and thresholds. We apply temporal aggregation by rolling-window averaging and spatial aggregation by hierarchical clustering. We verify 20 years of re-forecasts against the E-OBS dataset and find that European predictability extends at maximum into the fourth week. Simple aggregation and standard statistical post-processing extend the forecast skill horizon with two and three skilful days on average, respectively. The intuitive notion that higher levels of aggregation capture large-scale and low-frequency variability and can therefore tap into extended predictability holds in many cases. However, we show that the effect can be saturated and that there exist regional optimums beyond which extra aggregation reduces the forecast skill horizon. We expect such windows of predictability to result from specific physical mechanisms that only modulate and extend predictability locally. To optimize subseasonal forecasts for Europe, aggregation should thus be limited in certain cases.
- ItemMetrics for the evaluation of warm convective cloud fields in a large-eddy simulation with Meteosat images(Weinheim [u.a.] : Wiley, 2017) Bley, Sebastian; Deneke, Hartwig; Senf, Fabian; Scheck, LeonhardThe representation of warm convective clouds in atmospheric models and satellite observations can considerably deviate from each other partly due to different spatial resolutions. This study aims to establish appropriate metrics to evaluate high-resolution simulations of convective clouds by the ICON Large-Eddy Model (ICON-LEM) with observations from Meteosat SEVIRI over Germany. The time series and frequency distributions of convective cloud fraction and liquid water path (LWP) are analyzed. Furthermore, the study focuses on size distributions and decorrelation scales of warm convective cloud fields. The investigated metrics possess a pronounced sensitivity to the apparent spatial resolution. At the fine spatial scale, the simulations show higher occurrence frequencies of large LWP values and a factor of two to four smaller convective cloud fractions. Coarse-graining of simulated fields to the optical resolution of Meteosat essentially removes the differences between the observed and simulated metrics. The distribution of simulated cloud sizes compares well with the observations and can be represented by a power law, with a moderate resolution sensitivity. A lower limit of cloud sizes is identified, which is 8–10 times the native grid resolution of the model. This likely marks the effective model resolution beyond which the scaling behaviour of considered metrics is not reliable, implying that a further increase in spatial resolution would be desirable to better resolve cloud processes below 1 km. It is finally shown that ICON-LEM is consistent with spatio-temporal decorrelation scales observed with Meteosat having values of 30 min and 7 km, if transferred to the true optical satellite resolution. However, the simulated Lagrangian decorrelation times drop to 10 min at 1 km resolution, a scale covered by the upcoming generation of geostationary satellites.