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- ItemDid ERA5 Improve Temperature and Precipitation Reanalysis over East Africa?(Basel, Switzerland : MDPI AG, 2020) Gleixner, Stephanie; Demissie, Teferi; Diro, Gulilat TeferaReanalysis products are often taken as an alternative solution to observational weather and climate data due to availability and accessibility problems, particularly in data-sparse regions such as Africa. Proper evaluation of their strengths and weaknesses, however, should not be overlooked. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of ERA5 reanalysis and to document the progress made compared to ERA-interim for the fields of near-surface temperature and precipitation over Africa. Results show that in ERA5 the climatological biases in temperature and precipitation are clearly reduced and the representation of inter-annual variability is improved over most of Africa. However, both reanalysis products performed less well in terms of capturing the observed long-term trends, despite a slightly better performance of ERA5 over ERA-interim. Further regional analysis over East Africa shows that the representation of the annual cycle of precipitation is substantially improved in ERA5 by reducing the wet bias during the rainy season. The spatial distribution of precipitation during extreme years is also better represented in ERA5. While ERA5 has improved much in comparison to its predecessor, there is still demand for improved products with even higher resolution and accuracy to satisfy impact-based studies, such as in agriculture and water resources. © 2020 by the authors.
- ItemMercury distribution in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere according to measurements by the IAGOS-CARIBIC observatory: 2014-2016(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2018) Slemr, Franz; Weigelt, Andreas; Ebinghaus, Ralf; Bieser, Johannes; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A. M.; Rauthe-Schöch, Armin; Hermann, Markus; Martinsson, Bengt G.; van Velthoven, Peter; Bönisch, Harald; Neumaier, Marco; Zahn, Andreas; Ziereis, HelmutMercury was measured onboard the IAGOS-CARIBIC passenger aircraft from May 2005 until February 2016 during near monthly sequences of mostly four intercontinental flights from Germany to destinations in North and South America, Africa and South and East Asia. Most of these mercury data were obtained using an internal default signal integration procedure of the Tekran instrument but since April 2014 more precise and accurate data were obtained using post-flight manual integration of the instrument raw signal. In this paper we use the latter data. Increased upper tropospheric total mercury (TM) concentrations due to large scale biomass burning were observed in the upper troposphere (UT) at the equator and southern latitudes during the flights to Latin America and South Africa in boreal autumn (SON) and boreal winter (DJF). TM concentrations in the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) decrease with altitude above the thermal tropopause but the gradient is less steep than reported before. Seasonal variation of the vertical TM distribution in the UT and LMS is similar to that of other trace gases with surface sources and stratospheric sinks. Speciation experiments suggest comparable TM and gaseous elementary mercury (GEM) concentrations at and below the tropopause leaving little space for Hg2+ (TM-thinsp;GEM) being the dominating component of TM here. In the stratosphere significant GEM concentrations were found to exist up to 4 km altitude above the thermal tropopause. Correlations with N2O as a reference tracer suggest stratospheric lifetimes of 72±37 and 74±27 years for TM and GEM, respectively, comparable to the stratospheric lifetime of COS. This coincidence, combined with pieces of evidence from us and other researchers, corroborates the hypothesis that Hg2+ formed by oxidation in the stratosphere attaches to sulfate particles formed mainly by oxidation of COS and is removed with them from the stratosphere by air mass exchange, gravitational sedimentation and cloud scavenging processes.
- ItemClimatic windows for human migration out of Africa in the past 300,000 years([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2021) Beyer, Robert M.; Krapp, Mario; Eriksson, Anders; Manica, AndreaWhilst an African origin of modern humans is well established, the timings and routes of their expansions into Eurasia are the subject of heated debate, due to the scarcity of fossils and the lack of suitably old ancient DNA. Here, we use high-resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions to estimate how difficult it would have been for humans in terms of rainfall availability to leave the African continent in the past 300k years. We then combine these results with an anthropologically and ecologically motivated estimate of the minimum level of rainfall required by hunter-gatherers to survive, allowing us to reconstruct when, and along which geographic paths, expansions out of Africa would have been climatically feasible. The estimated timings and routes of potential contact with Eurasia are compatible with archaeological and genetic evidence of human expansions out of Africa, highlighting the key role of palaeoclimate variability for modern human dispersals.
- ItemTwo-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2018) Heino, M.; Puma, M.J.; Ward, P.J.; Gerten, D.; Heck, V.; Siebert, S.; Kummu, M.The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaked strongly during the boreal winter 2015-2016, leading to food insecurity in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are known to impact crop yields worldwide. Here we assess for the first time in a unified framework the relationships between ENSO, IOD and NAO and simulated crop productivity at the sub-country scale. Our findings reveal that during 1961-2010, crop productivity is significantly influenced by at least one large-scale climate oscillation in two-thirds of global cropland area. Besides observing new possible links, especially for NAO in Africa and the Middle East, our analyses confirm several known relationships between crop productivity and these oscillations. Our results improve the understanding of climatological crop productivity drivers, which is essential for enhancing food security in many of the most vulnerable places on the planet.
- ItemHysteresis of tropical forests in the 21st century([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2020) Staal, Arie; Fetzer, Ingo; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Bosmans, Joyce H. C.; Dekker, Stefan C.; van Nes, Egbert H.; Rockström, Johan; Tuinenburg, Obbe A.Tropical forests modify the conditions they depend on through feedbacks at different spatial scales. These feedbacks shape the hysteresis (history-dependence) of tropical forests, thus controlling their resilience to deforestation and response to climate change. Here, we determine the emergent hysteresis from local-scale tipping points and regional-scale forest-rainfall feedbacks across the tropics under the recent climate and a severe climate-change scenario. By integrating remote sensing, a global hydrological model, and detailed atmospheric moisture tracking simulations, we find that forest-rainfall feedback expands the geographic range of possible forest distributions, especially in the Amazon. The Amazon forest could partially recover from complete deforestation, but may lose that resilience later this century. The Congo forest currently lacks resilience, but is predicted to gain it under climate change, whereas forests in Australasia are resilient under both current and future climates. Our results show how tropical forests shape their own distributions and create the climatic conditions that enable them.
- ItemLongitude-dependent decadal ozone changes and ozone trends in boreal winter months during 1960-2000(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2008) Peters, D.H.W.; Gabriel, A.; Entzian, G.This study examines the longitude-dependent decadal changes and trends of ozone for the boreal winter months during the period of 1960–2000. These changes are caused primarily by changes in the planetary wave structure in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The decadal changes and trends over 4 decades of geopotential perturbations, defined as a deviation from the zonal mean, are estimated by linear regression with time. The decadal changes in longitude-dependent ozone were calculated with a simple transport model of ozone based on the known planetary wave structure changes and prescribed zonal mean ozone gradients. For December of the 1960s and 1980s a statistically significant Rossby wave track appeared over the North Atlantic and Europe with an anticyclonic disturbance over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe, flanked by cyclonic disturbances. In the 1970s and 1990s statistically significant cyclonic disturbances appeared over the Eastern North Atlantic and Europe, surrounded by anticyclonic anomalies over Northern Africa, Central Asia and Greenland. Similar patterns have been found for January. The Rossby wave track over the North Atlantic and Europe is stronger in the 1980s than in the 1960s. For February, the variability of the regression patterns is higher. For January we found a strong alteration in the modelled decadal changes in total ozone over Central and Northern Europe, showing a decrease of about 15 DU in the 1960s and 1980s and an increase of about 10 DU in the 1970s and 1990s. Over Central Europe the positive geopotential height trend (increase of 2.3 m/yr) over 40 years is of the same order (about 100 m) as the increase in the 1980s alone. This is important to recognize because it implies a total ozone decrease over Europe of the order of 14 DU for the 1960–2000 period, for January, if we use the standard change regression relation that about a 10-m geopotential height increase at 300 hPa is related to about a 1.4-DU total ozone decrease.
- ItemAfrican continental free trade area (AfCFTA): projected economic impact assessment under future warming in CMIP6(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2021) Arreyndip, Nkongho AyuketangLaunched on 1 January 2021, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aims to bring together 1.3 billion people in a US$3.4 trillion economic bloc. The World Bank estimates that the AfCFTA could lift tens of millions of people out of poverty by 2035. Previous studies have shown that an increase in annual mean temperature can significantly affect economic growth. The AfCFTA economy will therefore be affected by future warming. However, without the AfCFTA, the impact of the increased annual average temperature on local economies could be severe, further depriving low-income African countries of economic recovery. To assess the damage to regional economic growth caused by future warming, trend analyses are conducted in the aggregated historical CFSR/NCEP and CMIP6 (GFDL-ESM4) climate projection data from 1979 to 2100 for different emission pathways over some major continental economic centres. The long-term impact of surface temperature increase on gross regional product (GRP) per capita growth rates are investigated by fitting CMIP6 daily and annual mean temperatures to a log-polynomial regression model. The results show that an increase in annual mean temperature will significantly affect the economic growth of low latitude and altitude regions compared to high latitude and altitude regions. Most emerging African economies and many member states of the African Union and AfCFTA are located in this low latitude zone. This makes the economies of the newly created AfCFTA very vulnerable to climate change. Several studies suggest that FTAs can help reduce the economic vulnerability of developing countries. The results presented here can contribute to better design and implementation of economic, trade and climate policies in the AfCFTA to mitigate the economic impacts of future warming.
- ItemComparing impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large African river basins(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2014) Aich, V.; Liersch, S.; Vetter, T.; Huang, S.; Tecklenburg, J.; Hoffmann, P.; Koch, H.; Fournet, S.; Krysanova, V.; Müller, E.N.; Hattermann, F.F.This study aims to compare impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large representative African river basins: the Niger, the Upper Blue Nile, the Oubangui and the Limpopo. We set up the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) for all four basins individually. The validation of the models for four basins shows results from adequate to very good, depending on the quality and availability of input and calibration data.
For the climate impact assessment, we drive the model with outputs of five bias corrected Earth system models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. This climate input is put into the context of climate trends of the whole African continent and compared to a CMIP5 ensemble of 19 models in order to test their representativeness. Subsequently, we compare the trends in mean discharges, seasonality and hydrological extremes in the 21st century. The uncertainty of results for all basins is high. Still, climate change impact is clearly visible for mean discharges but also for extremes in high and low flows. The uncertainty of the projections is the lowest in the Upper Blue Nile, where an increase in streamflow is most likely. In the Niger and the Limpopo basins, the magnitude of trends in both directions is high and has a wide range of uncertainty. In the Oubangui, impacts are the least significant. Our results confirm partly the findings of previous continental impact analyses for Africa. However, contradictory to these studies we find a tendency for increased streamflows in three of the four basins (not for the Oubangui). Guided by these results, we argue for attention to the possible risks of increasing high flows in the face of the dominant water scarcity in Africa. In conclusion, the study shows that impact intercomparisons have added value to the adaptation discussion and may be used for setting up adaptation plans in the context of a holistic approach. - ItemFlood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives(Milton Park : Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2014) Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Kanae, S.; Seneviratne, S.I.; Handmer, J.; Nicholls, N.; Peduzzi, P.; Mechler, R.; Bouwer, L.M.; Arnell, N.; Mach, K.; Muir-Wood, R.; Brakenridge, G.R.; Kron, W.; Benito, G.; Honda, Y.; Takahashi, K.; Sherstyukov, B.A holistic perspective on changing rainfall-driven flood risk is provided for the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Economic losses from floods have greatly increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. It has not been possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past several decades. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, based on climate models, should contribute to increases in precipitation-generated local flooding (e.g. flash flooding and urban flooding). This article assesses the literature included in the IPCC SREX report and new literature published since, and includes an assessment of changes in flood risk in seven of the regions considered in the recent IPCC SREX report-Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Europe, North America, Oceania and Polar regions. Also considering newer publications, this article is consistent with the recent IPCC SREX assessment finding that the impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of those changes and that presently we have only low confidence1 in numerical projections of changes in flood magnitude or frequency resulting from climate change.
- ItemInvestigating African trace gas sources, vertical transport, and oxidation using IAGOS-CARIBIC measurements between Germany and South Africa between 2009 and 2011(Oxford [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2017) Thorenz, U.R.; Baker, A.K.; Leedham Elvidge, E.C.; Sauvage, C.; Riede, H.; van Velthoven, P.F.J.; Hermann, M.; Weigelt, A.; Oram, D.E.; Brenninkmeijer, C.A.M.; Zahn, A.; Williams, J.Between March 2009 and March 2011 a commercial airliner equipped with a custom built measurement container (IAGOS-CARIBIC observatory) conducted 13 flights between South Africa and Germany at 10–12 km altitude, traversing the African continent north-south. In-situ measurements of trace gases (CO, CH4, H2O) and aerosol particles indicated that strong surface sources (like biomass burning) and rapid vertical transport combine to generate maximum concentrations in the latitudinal range between 10°N and 10°S coincident with the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Pressurized air samples collected during these flights were subsequently analyzed for a suite of trace gases including C2-C8 non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) and halocarbons. These shorter-lived trace gases, originating from both natural and anthropogenic sources, also showed near equatorial maxima highlighting the effectiveness of convective transport in this region. Two source apportionment methods were used to investigate the specific sources of NMHC: positive matrix factorization (PMF), which is used for the first time for NMHC analysis in the upper troposphere (UT), and enhancement ratios to CO. Using the PMF method three characteristic airmass types were identified based on the different trace gas concentrations they obtained: biomass burning, fossil fuel emissions, and “background” air. The first two sources were defined with reference to previously reported surface source characterizations, while the term “background” was given to air masses in which the concentration ratios approached that of the lifetime ratios. Comparison of enhancement ratios between NMHC and CO for the subset of air samples that had experienced recent contact with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) to literature values showed that the burning of savanna and tropical forest is likely the main source of NMHC in the African upper troposphere (10–12 km). Photochemical aging patterns for the samples with PBL contact revealed that the air had different degradation histories depending on the hemisphere in which they were emitted. In the southern hemisphere (SH) air masses experienced more dilution by clean background air whereas in the northern hemisphere (NH) air masses are less diluted or mixed with background air still containing longer lived NMHC. Using NMHC photochemical clocks ozone production was seen in the BB outflow above Africa in the NH.