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- ItemLong-term wintertime trend of zonally asymmetric ozone in boreal extratropics during 1979-2016(Basel : MDPI AG, 2018) Schneidereit, A.; Peters, D.H.W.Strong zonally asymmetric ozone (ZAO) changes are observed in the boreal extratropics for winter. During the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) period (1979-1992) the decrease of zonally asymmetric total ozone (ZATO) was twice as large as the observed zonal mean total ozone trend over Europe in January mainly caused by ultra-long wave transport. Recent studies have demonstrated that the ozone evolution reveals three different quasi-bidecadal trend stages: (i) Decline, (ii) leveling, and (ii) healing. This study focuses on the ZAO structure in boreal extratropics and on ozone transport changes by ultra-long waves during winter months. ERA-Interim data together with a linearized transport model are used. During the healing stage ZATO increases significantly over the North Atlantic/European region for January. The ZATO increase (healing stage) and ZATO decrease (decline stage) are caused by different monthly mean ozone transport characteristics of ultra-long planetary waves over the North Atlantic/European region. Furthermore, the vertical advection (ageostrophic transport) of ozone versus its horizontal component dominates in the lower and middle stratosphere during the healing stage. It is hypothesized that these ageostrophic wind changes are mainly caused by a wave train directed northeastwards which seems to be directly linked to the Arctic warming. © 2018 by the authors.
- ItemExtreme levels of Canadian wildfire smoke in the stratosphere over central Europe on 21-22 August 2017(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2018) Ansmann, Albert; Baars, Holger; Chudnovsky, Alexandra; Mattis, Ina; Veselovskii, Igor; Haarig, Moritz; Seifert, Patric; Engelmann, Ronny; Wandinger, UllaLight extinction coefficients of 500 Mm1, about 20 times higher than after the Pinatubo volcanic eruptions in 1991, were observed by European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) lidars in the stratosphere over central Europe on 21-22 August 2017. Pronounced smoke layers with a 1-2 km vertical extent were found 2-5 km above the local tropopause. Optically dense layers of Canadian wildfire smoke reached central Europe 10 days after their injection into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere which was caused by rather strong pyrocumulonimbus activity over western Canada. The smoke-related aerosol optical thickness (AOT) identified by lidar was close to 1.0 at 532 nm over Leipzig during the noon hours on 22 August 2017. Smoke particles were found throughout the free troposphere (AOT of 0.3) and in the pronounced 2 km thick stratospheric smoke layer at an altitude of 14-16 km (AOT of 0.6). The lidar observations indicated peak mass concentrations of 70-100 μgm-3 in the stratosphere. In addition to the lidar profiles, we analyzed Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire radiative power (FRP) over Canada, and the distribution of MODIS AOT and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index across the North Atlantic. These instruments showed a similar pattern and a clear link between the western Canadian fires and the aerosol load over Europe. In this paper, we also present Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer observations, compare photometer and lidar-derived AOT, and discuss an obvious bias (the smoke AOT is too low) in the photometer observations. Finally, we compare the strength of this recordbreaking smoke event (in terms of the particle extinction coefficient and AOT) with major and moderate volcanic events observed over the northern midlatitudes.
- ItemSaharan dust transport and deposition towards the tropicalnorthern Atlantic(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2009) Schepanski, K.; Tegen, I.; MacKe, A.We present a study of Saharan dust export towards the tropical North Atlantic using the regional dust emission, transport and deposition model LM-MUSCAT. Horizontal and vertical distribution of dust optical thickness, concentration, and dry and wet deposition rates are used to describe seasonality of dust export and deposition towards the eastern Atlantic for three typical months in different seasons. Deposition rates strongly depend on the vertical dust distribution, which differs with seasons. Furthermore the contribution of dust originating from the Bod́eĺe Depression to Saharan dust over the Atlantic is investigated. A maximum contribution of Bod́eĺe dust transported towards the Cape Verde Islands is evident in winter when the Bod́eĺe source area is most active and dominant with regard to activation frequency and dust emission. Limitations of using satellite retrievals to estimate dust deposition are highlighted.
- ItemCoupled and decoupled stratocumulus-topped boundary layers: turbulence properties(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geosciences Union, 2021) Nowak, Jakub L.; Siebert, Holger; Szodry, Kai-Erik; Malinowski, Szymon P.We compare turbulence properties in coupled and decoupled marine stratocumulus-topped boundary layers (STBLs) using high-resolution in situ measurements performed by the helicopter-borne Airborne Cloud Turbulence Observation System (ACTOS) platform in the region of the eastern North Atlantic. The thermodynamically well-mixed coupled STBL was characterized by a comparable latent heat flux at the surface and in the cloud-top region, and substantially smaller sensible heat flux in the entire depth. Turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) was efficiently generated by buoyancy in the cloud and at the surface, and dissipated with comparable rate across the entire depth. Structure functions and power spectra of velocity fluctuations in the inertial range were reasonably consistent with the predictions of Kolmogorov theory. The turbulence was close to isotropic. In the decoupled STBL, decoupling was most obvious in humidity profiles. Heat fluxes and buoyant TKE production at the surface were similar to the coupled case. Around the transition level, latent heat flux decreased to zero and TKE was consumed by weak stability. In the cloud-top region, heat fluxes almost vanished and buoyancy production was significantly smaller than for the coupled case. The TKE dissipation rate inside the decoupled STBL varied between its sublayers. Structure functions and power spectra in the inertial range deviated from Kolmogorov scaling. This was more pronounced in the cloud and subcloud layer in comparison to the surface mixed layer. The turbulence was more anisotropic than in the coupled STBL, with horizontal fluctuations dominating. The degree of anisotropy was largest in the cloud and subcloud layer of the decoupled STBL. Integral length scales, of the order of 100gm in both cases, indicate turbulent eddies smaller than the depth of the coupled STBL or of the sublayers of the decoupled STBL. We hypothesize that turbulence produced in the cloud or close to the surface is redistributed across the entire coupled STBL but rather only inside the sublayers where it was generated in the case of the decoupled STBL. Scattered cumulus convection, developed below the stratocumulus base, may play a role in transport between those sublayers. © 2021 Jakub L. Nowak et al.
- ItemAbrupt transitions in time series with uncertainties(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2018) Goswami, B.; Boers, N.; Rheinwalt, A.; Marwan, N.; Heitzig, J.; Breitenbach, S.F.M.; Kurths, J.Identifying abrupt transitions is a key question in various disciplines. Existing transition detection methods, however, do not rigorously account for time series uncertainties, often neglecting them altogether or assuming them to be independent and qualitatively similar. Here, we introduce a novel approach suited to handle uncertainties by representing the time series as a time-ordered sequence of probability density functions. We show how to detect abrupt transitions in such a sequence using the community structure of networks representing probabilities of recurrence. Using our approach, we detect transitions in global stock indices related to well-known periods of politico-economic volatility. We further uncover transitions in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation which coincide with periods of phase locking with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Finally, we provide for the first time an 'uncertainty-aware' framework which validates the hypothesis that ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic during the Holocene were synchronous with a weakened Asian summer monsoon.
- ItemLongitude-dependent decadal ozone changes and ozone trends in boreal winter months during 1960-2000(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2008) Peters, D.H.W.; Gabriel, A.; Entzian, G.This study examines the longitude-dependent decadal changes and trends of ozone for the boreal winter months during the period of 1960–2000. These changes are caused primarily by changes in the planetary wave structure in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The decadal changes and trends over 4 decades of geopotential perturbations, defined as a deviation from the zonal mean, are estimated by linear regression with time. The decadal changes in longitude-dependent ozone were calculated with a simple transport model of ozone based on the known planetary wave structure changes and prescribed zonal mean ozone gradients. For December of the 1960s and 1980s a statistically significant Rossby wave track appeared over the North Atlantic and Europe with an anticyclonic disturbance over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe, flanked by cyclonic disturbances. In the 1970s and 1990s statistically significant cyclonic disturbances appeared over the Eastern North Atlantic and Europe, surrounded by anticyclonic anomalies over Northern Africa, Central Asia and Greenland. Similar patterns have been found for January. The Rossby wave track over the North Atlantic and Europe is stronger in the 1980s than in the 1960s. For February, the variability of the regression patterns is higher. For January we found a strong alteration in the modelled decadal changes in total ozone over Central and Northern Europe, showing a decrease of about 15 DU in the 1960s and 1980s and an increase of about 10 DU in the 1970s and 1990s. Over Central Europe the positive geopotential height trend (increase of 2.3 m/yr) over 40 years is of the same order (about 100 m) as the increase in the 1980s alone. This is important to recognize because it implies a total ozone decrease over Europe of the order of 14 DU for the 1960–2000 period, for January, if we use the standard change regression relation that about a 10-m geopotential height increase at 300 hPa is related to about a 1.4-DU total ozone decrease.
- ItemSignificance of uncertain phasing between the onsets of stadial–interstadial transitions in different Greenland ice core proxies(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus Ges., 2021) Riechers, Keno; Boers, NiklasDifferent paleoclimate proxy records evidence repeated abrupt climate transitions during previous glacial intervals. These transitions are thought to comprise abrupt warming and increase in local precipitation over Greenland, sudden reorganization of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, and retreat of sea ice in the North Atlantic. The physical mechanism underlying these so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events remains debated. A recent analysis of Greenland ice core proxy records found that transitions in Na+ concentrations and δ18O values are delayed by about 1 decade with respect to corresponding transitions in Ca2+ concentrations and in the annual layer thickness during DO events. These delays are interpreted as a temporal lag of sea-ice retreat and Greenland warming with respect to a synoptic- and hemispheric-scale atmospheric reorganization at the onset of DO events and may thereby help constrain possible triggering mechanisms for the DO events. However, the explanatory power of these results is limited by the uncertainty of the transition onset detection in noisy proxy records. Here, we extend previous work by testing the significance of the reported lags with respect to the null hypothesis that the proposed transition order is in fact not systematically favored. If the detection uncertainties are averaged out, the temporal delays in the δ18O and Na+ transitions with respect to their counterparts in Ca2+ and the annual layer thickness are indeed pairwise statistically significant. In contrast, under rigorous propagation of uncertainty, three statistical tests cannot provide evidence against the null hypothesis. We thus confirm the previously reported tendency of delayed transitions in the δ18O and Na+ concentration records. Yet, given the uncertainties in the determination of the transition onsets, it cannot be decided whether these tendencies are truly the imprint of a prescribed transition order or whether they are due to chance. The analyzed set of DO transitions can therefore not serve as evidence for systematic lead–lag relationships between the transitions in the different proxies, which in turn limits the power of the observed tendencies to constrain possible physical causes of the DO events.
- ItemA simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2007) Braun, H.; Ganopolski, A.; Christl, M.; Chialvo, D.R.Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events) to a few simple principles, namely (i) the existence of two different climate states, (ii) a threshold process and (iii) an overshooting in the stability of the system at the start and the end of the events, which is followed by a millennial-scale relaxation. By comparison with a so-called Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2), in which the events represent oscillations between two climate states corresponding to two fundamentally different modes of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, we demonstrate that the conceptual model captures fundamental aspects of the nonlinearity of the events in that model. We use the conceptual model in order to reproduce and reanalyse nonlinear resonance mechanisms that were already suggested in order to explain the characteristic time scale of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In doing so we identify a new form of stochastic resonance (i.e. an overshooting stochastic resonance) and provide the first explicitly reported manifestation of ghost resonance in a geosystem, i.e. of a mechanism which could be relevant for other systems with thresholds and with multiple states of operation. Our work enables us to explicitly simulate realistic probability measures of Dansgaard-Oeschger events (e.g. waiting time distributions, which are a prerequisite for statistical analyses on the regularity of the events by means of Monte-Carlo simulations). We thus think that our study is an important advance in order to develop more adequate methods to test the statistical significance and the origin of the proposed glacial 1470-year climate cycle.