Search Results
A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
2014, O'Neill, B.C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K.L., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T.R., Mathur, R., van Vuuren, D.P.
The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for use within the scenario framework. We define SSPs as reference pathways describing plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and ecosystems over a century timescale, in the absence of climate change or climate policies. We introduce the concept of a space of challenges to adaptation and to mitigation that should be spanned by the SSPs, and discuss how particular trends in social, economic, and environmental development could be combined to produce such outcomes. A comparison to the narratives from the scenarios developed in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) illustrates how a starting point for developing SSPs can be defined. We suggest initial development of a set of basic SSPs that could then be extended to meet more specific purposes, and envision a process of application of basic and extended SSPs that would be iterative and potentially lead to modification of the original SSPs themselves.
The Importance of the Representation of DMS Oxidation in Global Chemistry‐Climate Simulations
2021, Hoffmann, Erik Hans, Heinold, Bernd, Kubin, Anne, Tegen, Ina, Herrmann, Hartmut
The oxidation of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is key for the natural sulfate aerosol formation and its climate impact. Multiphase chemistry is an important oxidation pathway but neglected in current chemistry-climate models. Here, the DMS chemistry in the aerosol-chemistry-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ is extended to include multiphase methane sulfonic acid (MSA) formation in deliquesced aerosol particles, parameterized by reactive uptake. First simulations agree well with observed gas-phase MSA concentrations. The implemented formation pathways are quantified to contribute up to 60% to the sulfate aerosol burden over the Southern Ocean and Arctic/Antarctic regions. While globally the impact on the aerosol radiative forcing almost levels off, a significantly more positive solar radiative forcing of up to +0.1 W m−2 is computed in the Arctic (>60°N). The findings imply the need of both further laboratory and model studies on the atmospheric multiphase oxidation of DMS.
Do new sea spray aerosol source functions improve the results of a regional aerosol model?
2018, Barthel, Stefan, Tegen, Ina, Wolke, Ralf
Sea spray aerosol particle is a dominating part of the global aerosol mass load of natural origin. Thus, it strongly influences the atmospheric radiation balance and cloud properties especially over the oceans. Uncertainties of the estimated climate impacts by this aerosol type are partly caused by the uncertainties in the particle size dependent emission fluxes of sea spray aerosol particle. We present simulations with a regional aerosol transport model system in two domains, for three months and compared the model results to measurements at four stations using various sea spray aerosol particle source source functions. Despite these limitations we found the results using different source functions are within the range of most model uncertainties. Especially the model's ability to produce realistic wind speeds is crucial. Furthermore, the model results are more affected by a function correcting the emission flux for the effect of the sea surface temperature than by the use of different source functions. © 2018 The Authors
Agreement between reconstructed and modeled boreal precipitation of the Last Interglacial
2019, Scussolini, Paolo, Bakker, Pepijn, Guo, Chuncheng, Stepanek, Christian, Zhang, Qiong, Braconnot, Pascale, Cao, Jian, Guarino, Maria-Vittoria, Coumou, Dim, Prange, Matthias, Ward, Philip J., Renssen, Hans, Kageyama, Masa, Otto-Bliesner, Bette, Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
The last extended time period when climate may have been warmer than today was during the Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 129 to 120 thousand years ago). However, a global view of LIG precipitation is lacking. Here, seven new LIG climate models are compared to the first global database of proxies for LIG precipitation. In this way, models are assessed in their ability to capture important hydroclimatic processes during a different climate. The models can reproduce the proxy-based positive precipitation anomalies from the preindustrial period over much of the boreal continents. Over the Southern Hemisphere, proxy-model agreement is partial. In models, LIG boreal monsoons have 42% wider area than in the preindustrial and produce 55% more precipitation and 50% more extreme precipitation. Austral monsoons are weaker. The mechanisms behind these changes are consistent with stronger summer radiative forcing over boreal high latitudes and with the associated higher temperatures during the LIG.
The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300
2011, Meinshausen, M., Smith, S.J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J.S., Kainuma, M.L.T., Lamarque, J., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S.A., Raper, S.C.B., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Velders, G.J.M., van Vuuren, D.P.P.
We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs). These projections include all major anthropogenic greenhouse gases and are a result of a multi-year effort to produce new scenarios for climate change research. We combine a suite of atmospheric concentration observations and emissions estimates for greenhouse gases (GHGs) through the historical period (1750-2005) with harmonized emissions projected by four different Integrated Assessment Models for 2005-2100. As concentrations are somewhat dependent on the future climate itself (due to climate feedbacks in the carbon and other gas cycles), we emulate median response characteristics of models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report using the reduced-complexity carbon cycle climate model MAGICC6. Projected 'best-estimate' global-mean surface temperature increases (using inter alia a climate sensitivity of 3°C) range from 1.5°C by 2100 for the lowest of the four RCPs, called both RCP3-PD and RCP2. 6, to 4.5°C for the highest one, RCP8. 5, relative to pre-industrial levels. Beyond 2100, we present the ECPs that are simple extensions of the RCPs, based on the assumption of either smoothly stabilizing concentrations or constant emissions: For example, the lower RCP2. 6 pathway represents a strong mitigation scenario and is extended by assuming constant emissions after 2100 (including net negative CO2 emissions), leading to CO2 concentrations returning to 360 ppm by 2300. We also present the GHG concentrations for one supplementary extension, which illustrates the stringent emissions implications of attempting to go back to ECP4. 5 concentration levels by 2250 after emissions during the 21st century followed the higher RCP6 scenario. Corresponding radiative forcing values are presented for the RCP and ECPs.