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- ItemA framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: Land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Frieler, K.; Levermann, A.; Elliott, J.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D.B.; Deryng, D.; Döll, P.; Falloon, P.; Fekete, B.; Folberth, C.; Friend, A.D.; Gellhorn, C.; Gosling, S.N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Lomas, M.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Neumann, K.; Oki, T.; Pavlick, R.; Ruane, A.C.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Stacke, T.; Stehfest, E.; Tang, Q.; Wisser, D.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Warszawski, L.; Schewe, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schellnhuber, H.J.Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.
- ItemA multi-model analysis of teleconnected crop yield variability in a range of cropping systems(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2020) Heino, Matias; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Müller, Christoph; Iizumi, Toshichika; Kummu, MattiClimate oscillations are periodically fluctuating oceanic and atmospheric phenomena, which are related to variations in weather patterns and crop yields worldwide. In terms of crop production, the most widespread impacts have been observed for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has been found to impact crop yields on all continents that produce crops, while two other climate oscillations - the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - have been shown to especially impact crop production in Australia and Europe, respectively. In this study, we analyse the impacts of ENSO, IOD, and NAO on the growing conditions of maize, rice, soybean, and wheat at the global scale by utilising crop yield data from an ensemble of global gridded crop models simulated for a range of crop management scenarios. Our results show that, while accounting for their potential co-variation, climate oscillations are correlated with simulated crop yield variability to a wide extent (half of all maize and wheat harvested areas for ENSO) and in several important crop-producing areas, e.g. in North America (ENSO, wheat), Australia (IOD and ENSO, wheat), and northern South America (ENSO, soybean). Further, our analyses show that higher sensitivity to these oscillations can be observed for rainfed and fully fertilised scenarios, while the sensitivity tends to be lower if crops were to be fully irrigated. Since the development of ENSO, IOD, and NAO can potentially be forecasted well in advance, a better understanding about the relationship between crop production and these climate oscillations can improve the resilience of the global food system to climate-related shocks. © 2020 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.
- ItemThe LEGATO cross-disciplinary integrated ecosystem service research framework: an example of integrating research results from the analysis of global change impacts and the social, cultural and economic system dynamics of irrigated rice production(Heidelberg : Springer Verlag, 2017) Spangenberg, J.H.; Beaurepaire, A.L.; Bergmeier, E.; Burkhard, B.; van Chien, H.; Cuong, L.Q.; Görg, C.; Grescho, V.; Hai, L.H.; Heong, K.L.; Horgan, F.G.; Hotes, S.; Klotzbücher, A.; Klotzbücher, T.; Kühn, I.; Langerwisch, F.; Marion, G.; Moritz, R.F.A.; Nguyen, Q.A.; Ott, J.; Sann, C.; Sattler, C.; Schädler, M.; Schmidt, A.; Tekken, V.; Thanh, T.D.; Thonicke, K.; Türke, M.; Václavík, T.; Vetterlein, D.; Westphal, C.; Wiemers, M.; Settele, J.In a cross-disciplinary project (LEGATO) combining inter- and transdisciplinary methods, we quantify the dependency of rice-dominated socio-ecological systems on ecosystem functions (ESF) and the ecosystem services (ESS) the integrated system provides. In the collaboration of a large team including geo- and bioscientists, economists, political and cultural scientists, the mutual influences of the biological, climate and soil conditions of the agricultural area and its surrounding natural landscape have been analysed. One focus was on sociocultural and economic backgrounds, another on local as well as regional land use intensity and biodiversity, and the potential impacts of future climate and land use change. LEGATO analysed characteristic elements of three service strands defined by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA): (a) provisioning services: nutrient cycling and crop production; (b) regulating services: biocontrol and pollination; and (c) cultural services: cultural identity and aesthetics. However, in line with much of the current ESS literature, what the MA called supporting services is treated as ESF within LEGATO. As a core output, LEGATO developed generally applicable principles of ecological engineering (EE), suitable for application in the context of future climate and land use change. EE is an emerging discipline, concerned with the design, monitoring and construction of ecosystems and aims at developing strategies to optimise ecosystem services through exploiting natural regulation mechanisms instead of suppressing them. Along these lines LEGATO also aims to create the knowledge base for decision-making for sustainable land management and livelihoods, including the provision of the corresponding governance and management strategies, technologies and system solutions.
- ItemN 2 O emissions and NO 3 − leaching from two contrasting regions in Austria and influence of soil, crops and climate: a modelling approach(Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 2019) Kasper, M.; Foldal, C.; Kitzler, B.; Haas, E.; Strauss, P.; Eder, A.; Zechmeister-Boltenstern, S.; Amon, B.National emission inventories for UN FCCC reporting estimate regional soil nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes by considering the amount of N input as the only influencing factor for N 2 O emissions. Our aim was to deepen the understanding of N 2 O fluxes from agricultural soils, including region specific soil and climate properties into the estimation of emission to find targeted mitigation measures for the reduction of nitrogen losses and GHG emissions. Within this project, N 2 O emissions and nitrate (NO 3 − ) leaching were modelled under spatially distinct environmental conditions in two agricultural regions in Austria taking into account region specific soil and climatic properties, management practices and crop rotations. The LandscapeDNDC ecosystem model was used to calculate N 2 O emissions and NO 3 − leaching reflecting different types of vegetation, management operations and crop rotations. In addition, N input and N fluxes were assessed and N 2 O emissions were calculated. This approach allowed identifying hot spots of N 2 O emissions. Results show that certain combinations of soil type, weather conditions, crop and management can lead to high emissions. Mean values ranged from 0.15 to 1.29 kg N 2 O–N ha −1 year −1 (Marchfeld) and 0.26 to 0.52 kg N 2 O–N ha −1 year −1 (Grieskirchen). Nitrate leaching, which strongly dominated N-losses, often reacted opposite to N 2 O emissions. Larger quantities of NO 3 − were lost during years of higher precipitation, especially if winter barley was cultivated on sandy soils. Taking into account the detected hot spots of N 2 O emissions and NO 3 − leaching most efficient measures can be addressed to mitigate environmental impacts while maximising crop production. © 2018, The Author(s).
- ItemFarm water productivity in conventional and organic farming: Case studies of cow-calf farming systems in North Germany(Basel : MDPI AG, 2018) Vellenga, L.; Qualitz, G.; Drastig, K.The increase of organic agriculture in Germany raises the question of how water productivity differs from conventional agriculture. On three organic and two conventionally farming systems in Germany, water flows and water related indicators were quantified. Farm water productivity (FWP), farm water productivity of cow-calf production (FWPlivestock), and farm water productivity of food crop production (FWPfood crops) were calculated using the modeling software AgroHyd Farmmodel. The FWP was calculated on a mass and monetary basis. FWPlivestock showed the highest productivity on a mass basis occurring on a conventional farm with 0.09 kg m-3Winput, whereas one organic farm and one conventional farm showed the same results. On a monetary basis, organic cow-calf farming systems showed the highest FWPlivestock, with 0.28 € m-3Winput. Since the productivity of the farm depends strongly on the individual cultivated plants, FWPfood crops was compared at the level of the single crop. The results show furthermore that even with a precise examination of farm water productivity, a high bandwidth of temporal and local values are revealed on different farms: generic FWP for food crops and livestock are not within reach.