2016, Heitzig, J., Kittel, T., Donges, J.F., Molkenthin, N.

To keep the Earth system in a desirable region of its state space, such as defined by the recently suggested "tolerable environment and development window", "guardrails", "planetary boundaries", or "safe (and just) operating space for humanity", one needs to understand not only the quantitative internal dynamics of the system and the available options for influencing it (management) but also the structure of the system's state space with regard to certain qualitative differences. Important questions are, which state space regions can be reached from which others with or without leaving the desirable region, which regions are in a variety of senses "safe" to stay in when management options might break away, and which qualitative decision problems may occur as a consequence of this topological structure? In this article, we develop a mathematical theory of the qualitative topology of the state space of a dynamical system with management options and desirable states, as a complement to the existing literature on optimal control which is more focussed on quantitative optimization and is much applied in both the engineering and the integrated assessment literature. We suggest a certain terminology for the various resulting regions of the state space and perform a detailed formal classification of the possible states with respect to the possibility of avoiding or leaving the undesired region. Our results indicate that, before performing some form of quantitative optimization such as of indicators of human well-being for achieving certain sustainable development goals, a sustainable and resilient management of the Earth system may require decisions of a more discrete type that come in the form of several dilemmas, e.g. choosing between eventual safety and uninterrupted desirability, or between uninterrupted safety and larger flexibility. We illustrate the concepts and dilemmas drawing on conceptual models from climate science, ecology, coevolutionary Earth system modelling, economics, and classical mechanics, and discuss their potential relevance for the climate and sustainability debate, in particular suggesting several levels of planetary boundaries of qualitatively increasing safety.

2010, Donner, R.V., Zou, Y., Donges, J.F., Marwan, N., Kurths, J.

This paper presents a new approach for analysing the structural properties of time series from complex systems. Starting from the concept of recurrences in phase space, the recurrence matrix of a time series is interpreted as the adjacency matrix of an associated complex network, which links different points in time if the considered states are closely neighboured in phase space. In comparison with similar network-based techniques the new approach has important conceptual advantages, and can be considered as a unifying framework for transforming time series into complex networks that also includes other existing methods as special cases. It has been demonstrated here that there are fundamental relationships between many topological properties of recurrence networks and different nontrivial statistical properties of the phase space density of the underlying dynamical system. Hence, this novel interpretation of the recurrence matrix yields new quantitative characteristics (such as average path length, clustering coefficient, or centrality measures of the recurrence network) related to the dynamical complexity of a time series, most of which are not yet provided by other existing methods of nonlinear time series analysis. © IOP Publishing Ltd and Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft.

2018, Klinshov, V.V., Kirillov, S., Kurths, J., Nekorkin, V.I.

Stability of dynamical systems against strong perturbations is an important problem of nonlinear dynamics relevant to many applications in various areas. Here, we develop a novel concept of interval stability, referring to the behavior of the perturbed system during a finite time interval. Based on this concept, we suggest new measures of stability, namely interval basin stability (IBS) and interval stability threshold (IST). IBS characterizes the likelihood that the perturbed system returns to the stable regime (attractor) in a given time. IST provides the minimal magnitude of the perturbation capable to disrupt the stable regime for a given interval of time. The suggested measures provide important information about the system susceptibility to external perturbations which may be useful for practical applications. Moreover, from a theoretical viewpoint the interval stability measures are shown to bridge the gap between linear and asymptotic stability. We also suggest numerical algorithms for quantification of the interval stability characteristics and demonstrate their potential for several dynamical systems of various nature, such as power grids and neural networks.

2017, Kittel, T., Heitzig, J., Webster, K., Kurths, J.

In dynamical systems, one may ask how long it takes for a trajectory to reach the attractor, i.e. how long it spends in the transient phase. Although for a single trajectory the mathematically precise answer may be infinity, it still makes sense to compare different trajectories and quantify which of them approaches the attractor earlier. In this article, we categorize several problems of quantifying such transient times. To treat them, we propose two metrics, area under distance curve and regularized reaching time, that capture two complementary aspects of transient dynamics. The first, area under distance curve, is the distance of the trajectory to the attractor integrated over time. It measures which trajectories are 'reluctant', i.e. stay distant from the attractor for long, or 'eager' to approach it right away. Regularized reaching time, on the other hand, quantifies the additional time (positive or negative) that a trajectory starting at a chosen initial condition needs to approach the attractor as compared to some reference trajectory. A positive or negative value means that it approaches the attractor by this much 'earlier' or 'later' than the reference, respectively. We demonstrated their substantial potential for application with multiple paradigmatic examples uncovering new features.

2017, Botta, N., Jansson, P., Ionescu, C., Christiansen, D.R., Brady, E.

We present a computer-checked generic implementation for solving finite-horizon sequential decision problems. This is a wide class of problems, including inter-temporal optimizations, knapsack, optimal bracketing, scheduling, etc. The implementation can handle time-step dependent control and state spaces, and monadic representations of uncertainty (such as stochastic, non-deterministic, fuzzy, or combinations thereof). This level of genericity is achievable in a programming language with dependent types (we have used both Idris and Agda). Dependent types are also the means that allow us to obtain a formalization and computer-checked proof of the central component of our implementation: Bellman’s principle of optimality and the associated backwards induction algorithm. The formalization clarifies certain aspects of backwards induction and, by making explicit notions such as viability and reachability, can serve as a starting point for a theory of controllability of monadic dynamical systems, commonly encountered in, e.g., climate impact research.

2016, Pimenov, Alexander, Rachinskii, Dmitrii

We construct examples of robust homoclinic orbits for systems of ordinary differential equations coupled with the Preisach hysteresis operator. Existence of such orbits is demonstrated for the first time. We discuss a generic mechanism that creates robust homoclinic orbits and a method for finding them. An example of a homoclinic orbit in a population dynamics model with hysteretic response of the prey to variations of the predator is studied numerically.

2016, Klinshov, V.V., Nekorkin, V.I., Kurths, J.

2020, Kantner, Markus, Koprucki, Thomas

When effective medical treatment and vaccination are not available, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, home quarantine and far-reaching shutdown of public life are the only available strategies to prevent the spread of epidemics. Based on an extended SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and continuous-time optimal control theory, we compute the optimal non-pharmaceutical intervention strategy for the case that a vaccine is never found and complete containment (eradication of the epidemic) is impossible. In this case, the optimal control must meet competing requirements: First, the minimization of disease-related deaths, and, second, the establishment of a sufficient degree of natural immunity at the end of the measures, in order to exclude a second wave. Moreover, the socio-economic costs of the intervention shall be kept at a minimum. The numerically computed optimal control strategy is a single-intervention scenario that goes beyond heuristically motivated interventions and simple “flattening of the curve”. Careful analysis of the computed control strategy reveals, however, that the obtained solution is in fact a tightrope walk close to the stability boundary of the system, where socio-economic costs and the risk of a new outbreak must be constantly balanced against one another. The model system is calibrated to reproduce the initial exponential growth phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. © 2020, The Author(s).

2013, Li, L., Yang, C., Hui, S., Yu, W., Kurths, J., Peng, H., Yang, Y.

This paper introduces a new scheme to achieve a dynamic logic gate which can be adjusted flexibly to obtain different logic functions by adjusting specific parameters of a dynamical system. Based on graphical tools and the threshold mechanism, the distribution of different logic gates is studied, and a transformation method between different logics is given. Analyzing the performance of the dynamical system in the presence of noise, we discover that it is resistant to system noise. Moreover, we find some part of the system can be considered as a leaky integrator which has been already widely applied in engineering. Finally, we provide a proof-of-principle hardware implementation of the proposed scheme to illustrate its effectiveness. With the proposed scheme in hand, it is convenient to build the flexible, robust, and general purpose computing devices such as various network coding routers, communication encoders or decoders, and reconfigurable computer chips.

2018, Perez-Leija, Armando, Guzmán-Silva, Diego, León-Montiel, Roberto de J., Gräfe, Markus, Heinrich, Matthias, Moya-Cessa, Hector, Busch, Kurt, Szameit, Alexander

Quantum coherence, the physical property underlying fundamental phenomena such as multi-particle interference and entanglement, has emerged as a valuable resource upon which modern technologies are founded. In general, the most prominent adversary of quantum coherence is noise arising from the interaction of the associated dynamical system with its environment. Under certain conditions, however, the existence of noise may drive quantum and classical systems to endure intriguing nontrivial effects. In this vein, here we demonstrate, both theoretically and experimentally, that when two indistinguishable non-interacting particles co-propagate through quantum networks affected by non-dissipative noise, the system always evolves into a steady state in which coherences accounting for particle indistinguishabilty perpetually prevail. Furthermore, we show that the same steady state with surviving quantum coherences is reached even when the initial state exhibits classical correlations.