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Subject: Environmental impact × WGL Institute: PIK ×

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    Impacts of meeting minimum access on critical earth systems amidst the Great Inequality
    (London : Springer Nature, 2022) Rammelt, Crelis F.; Gupta, Joyeeta; Liverman, Diana; Scholtens, Joeri; Ciobanu, Daniel; Abrams, Jesse F.; Bai, Xuemei; Gifford, Lauren; Gordon, Christopher; Hurlbert, Margot; Inoue, Cristina Y. A.; Jacobson, Lisa; Lade, Steven J.; Lenton, Timothy M.; McKay, David I. Armstrong; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Okereke, Chukwumerije; Otto, Ilona M.; Pereira, Laura M.; Prodani, Klaudia; Rockström, Johan; Stewart-Koster, Ben; Verburg, Peter H.; Zimm, Caroline
    The Sustainable Development Goals aim to improve access to resources and services, reduce environmental degradation, eradicate poverty and reduce inequality. However, the magnitude of the environmental burden that would arise from meeting the needs of the poorest is under debate—especially when compared to much larger burdens from the rich. We show that the ‘Great Acceleration’ of human impacts was characterized by a ‘Great Inequality’ in using and damaging the environment. We then operationalize ‘just access’ to minimum energy, water, food and infrastructure. We show that achieving just access in 2018, with existing inequalities, technologies and behaviours, would have produced 2–26% additional impacts on the Earth’s natural systems of climate, water, land and nutrients—thus further crossing planetary boundaries. These hypothetical impacts, caused by about a third of humanity, equalled those caused by the wealthiest 1–4%. Technological and behavioural changes thus far, while important, did not deliver just access within a stable Earth system. Achieving these goals therefore calls for a radical redistribution of resources.
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    Intercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models
    ([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2022) Meiler, Simona; Vogt, Thomas; Bloemendaal, Nadia; Ciullo, Alessio; Lee, Chia-Ying; Camargo, Suzana J.; Emanuel, Kerry; Bresch, David N.
    Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause devastating damage to life and property. Historical TC data is scarce, complicating adequate TC risk assessments. Synthetic TC models are specifically designed to overcome this scarcity. While these models have been evaluated on their ability to simulate TC activity, no study to date has focused on model performance and applicability in TC risk assessments. This study performs the intercomparison of four different global-scale synthetic TC datasets in the impact space, comparing impact return period curves, probability of rare events, and hazard intensity distribution over land. We find that the model choice influences the costliest events, particularly in basins with limited TC activity. Modelled direct economic damages in the North Indian Ocean, for instance, range from 40 to 246 billion USD for the 100-yr event over the four hazard sets. We furthermore provide guidelines for the suitability of the different synthetic models for various research purposes.