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    On deeper human dimensions in Earth system analysis and modelling
    (München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2018) Gerten, Dieter; Schönfeld, Martin; Schauberger, Bernhard
    While humanity is altering planet Earth at unprecedented magnitude and speed, representation of the cultural driving factors and their dynamics in models of the Earth system is limited. In this review and perspectives paper, we argue that more or less distinct environmental value sets can be assigned to religion – a deeply embedded feature of human cultures, here defined as collectively shared belief in something sacred. This assertion renders religious theories, practices and actors suitable for studying cultural facets of anthropogenic Earth system change, especially regarding deeper, non-materialistic motivations that ask about humans' self-understanding in the Anthropocene epoch. We sketch a modelling landscape and outline some research primers, encompassing the following elements: (i) extensions of existing Earth system models by quantitative relationships between religious practices and biophysical processes, building on databases that allow for (mathematical) formalisation of such knowledge; (ii) design of new model types that specifically represent religious morals, actors and activities as part of co-evolutionary human–environment dynamics; and (iii) identification of research questions of humanitarian relevance that are underrepresented in purely economic–technocratic modelling and scenario paradigms. While this analysis is by necessity heuristic and semi-cohesive, we hope that it will act as a stimulus for further interdisciplinary and systematic research on the immaterial dimension of humanity's imprint on the Earth system, both qualitatively and quantitatively.
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    The impact of uncertainty on optimal emission policies
    (München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2018) Botta, Nicola; Jansson, Patrik; Ionescu, Cezar
    We apply a computational framework for specifying and solving sequential decision problems to study the impact of three kinds of uncertainties on optimal emission policies in a stylized sequential emission problem.We find that uncertainties about the implementability of decisions on emission reductions (or increases) have a greater impact on optimal policies than uncertainties about the availability of effective emission reduction technologies and uncertainties about the implications of trespassing critical cumulated emission thresholds. The results show that uncertainties about the implementability of decisions on emission reductions (or increases) call for more precautionary policies. In other words, delaying emission reductions to the point in time when effective technologies will become available is suboptimal when these uncertainties are accounted for rigorously. By contrast, uncertainties about the implications of exceeding critical cumulated emission thresholds tend to make early emission reductions less rewarding.
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    Drilling into an active mofette: pilot-hole study of the impact of CO2-rich mantle-derived fluids on the geo–bio interaction in the western Eger Rift (Czech Republic)
    (Sapporo : IODP, 2017) Bussert, Robert; Kämpf, Horst; Flechsig, Christina; Hesse, Katja; Nickschick, Tobias; Liu, Qi; Umlauft, Josefine; Vylita, Tomáš; Wagner, Dirk; Wonik, Thomas; Flores, Hortencia Estrella; Alawi, Mashal
    Microbial life in the continental "deep biosphere" is closely linked to geodynamic processes, yet this interaction is poorly studied. The Cheb Basin in the western Eger Rift (Czech Republic) is an ideal place for such a study because it displays almost permanent seismic activity along active faults with earthquake swarms up to ML 4.5 and intense degassing of mantle-derived CO2 in conduits that show up at the surface in form of mofettes. We hypothesize that microbial life is significantly accelerated in active fault zones and in CO2 conduits, due to increased fluid and substrate flow. To test this hypothesis, pilot hole HJB-1 was drilled in spring 2016 at the major mofette of the Hartoušov mofette field, after extensive pre-drill surveys to optimize the well location. After drilling through a thin caprock-like structure at 78.5 m, a CO2 blowout occurred indicating a CO2 reservoir in the underlying sandy clay. A pumping test revealed the presence of mineral water dominated by Na+, Ca2+, HCO3−, SO42− (Na-Ca-HCO3-SO4 type) having a temperature of 18.6 °C and a conductivity of 6760 µS cm−1. The high content of sulfate (1470 mg L−1) is typical of Carlsbad Spa mineral waters. The hole penetrated about 90 m of Cenozoic sediments and reached a final depth of 108.50 m in Palaeozoic schists. Core recovery was about 85 %. The cored sediments are mudstones with minor carbonates, sandstones and lignite coals that were deposited in a lacustrine environment. Deformation structures and alteration features are abundant in the core. Ongoing studies will show if they result from the flow of CO2-rich fluids or not.