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- ItemCommunication activity in a social network: Relation between long-term correlations and inter-event clustering(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2012) Rybski, D.; Buldyrev, S.V.; Havlin, S.; Liljeros, F.; Makse, H.A.Human communication in social networks is dominated by emergent statistical laws such as non-trivial correlations and temporal clustering. Recently, we found long-term correlations in the user's activity in social communities. Here, we extend this work to study the collective behavior of the whole community with the goal of understanding the origin of clustering and long-term persistence. At the individual level, we find that the correlations in activity are a byproduct of the clustering expressed in the power-law distribution of inter-event times of single users, i.e. short periods of many events are separated by long periods of no events. On the contrary, the activity of the whole community presents long-term correlations that are a true emergent property of the system, i.e. they are not related to the distribution of inter-event times. This result suggests the existence of collective behavior, possibly arising from nontrivial communication patterns through the embedding social network.
- ItemCardio-respiratory coordination increases during sleep apnea(San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2014) Riedl, M.; Müller, A.; Kraemer, J.F.; Penzel, T.; Kurths, J.; Wessel, N.Cardiovascular diseases are the main source of morbidity and mortality in the United States with costs of more than $170 billion. Repetitive respiratory disorders during sleep are assumed to be a major cause of these diseases. Therefore, the understanding of the cardio-respiratory regulation during these events is of high public interest. One of the governing mechanisms is the mutual influence of the cardiac and respiratory oscillations on their respective onsets, the cardiorespiratory coordination (CRC). We analyze this mechanism based on nocturnal measurements of 27 males suffering from obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. Here we find, by using an advanced analysis technique, the coordigram, not only that the occurrence of CRC is significantly more frequent during respiratory sleep disturbances than in normal respiration (p-value<10-51) but also more frequent after these events (p-value<10-15). Especially, the latter finding contradicts the common assumption that spontaneous CRC can only be observed in epochs of relaxed conditions, while our newly discovered epochs of CRC after disturbances are characterized by high autonomic stress. Our findings on the connection between CRC and the appearance of sleep-disordered events require a substantial extension of the current understanding of obstructive sleep apneas and hypopneas.
- ItemCorrelating the ancient Maya and modern european calendars with high-precision AMS 14C dating(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2013) Kennett, D.J.; Hajdas, I.; Culleton, B.J.; Belmecheri, S.; Martin, S.; Neff, H.; Awe, J.; Graham, H.V.; Freeman, K.H.; Newsom, L.; Lentz, D.L.; Anselmetti, F.S.; Robinson, M.; Marwan, N.; Southon, J.; Hodell, D.A.; Haug, G.H.The reasons for the development and collapse of Maya civilization remain controversial and historical events carved on stone monuments throughout this region provide a remarkable source of data about the rise and fall of these complex polities. Use of these records depends on correlating the Maya and European calendars so that they can be compared with climate and environmental datasets. Correlation constants can vary up to 1000 years and remain controversial.Wereport a series of high-resolution AMS14C dates on a wooden lintel collected from the Classic Period city of Tikal bearing Maya calendar dates. The radiocarbon dates were calibrated using a Bayesian statistical model and indicate that the dates were carved on the lintel betweenAD 658-696. This strongly supports the Goodman-Mart?nez-Thompson (GMT) correlation and the hypothesis that climate change played an important role in the development and demise of this complex civilization.
- ItemEmbodied Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Diets(San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2013) Pradhan, P.; Reusser, D.E.; Kropp, J.P.Changing food consumption patterns and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been a matter of scientific debate for decades. The agricultural sector is one of the major GHG emitters and thus holds a large potential for climate change mitigation through optimal management and dietary changes. We assess this potential, project emissions, and investigate dietary patterns and their changes globally on a per country basis between 1961 and 2007. Sixteen representative and spatially differentiated patterns with a per capita calorie intake ranging from 1,870 to <3,400 kcal/day were derived. Detailed analyses show that low calorie diets are decreasing worldwide, while in parallel diet composition is changing as well: a discernable shift towards more balanced diets in developing countries can be observed and steps towards more meat rich diets as a typical characteristics in developed countries. Low calorie diets which are mainly observable in developing countries show a similar emission burden than moderate and high calorie diets. This can be explained by a less efficient calorie production per unit of GHG emissions in developing countries. Very high calorie diets are common in the developed world and exhibit high total per capita emissions of 3.7-6.1 kg CO2eq./day due to high carbon intensity and high intake of animal products. In case of an unbridled demographic growth and changing dietary patterns the projected emissions from agriculture will approach 20 Gt CO2eq./yr by 2050.
- ItemA human development framework for CO 2 reductions(San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2011) Costa, L.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J.P.Although developing countries are called to participate in CO 2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO 2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300 Gt of cumulative CO 2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20 % to 30 % of previously calculated CO 2 budgets limiting global warming to 2°C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO 2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2°C target after a particular development threshold is reached. For example, in each time step of five years, countries with an HDI of 0.85 would need to reduce their per capita emissions by approx. 17% and countries with an HDI of 0.9 by 33 %. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100 Gt of CO 2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2°C.
- ItemProbing the Statistical Properties of Unknown Texts: Application to the Voynich Manuscript(San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2013) Amancio, D.R.; Altmann, E.G.; Rybski, D.; Oliveira Jr., O.N.; da Costa, L.F.While the use of statistical physics methods to analyze large corpora has been useful to unveil many patterns in texts, no comprehensive investigation has been performed on the interdependence between syntactic and semantic factors. In this study we propose a framework for determining whether a text (e.g., written in an unknown alphabet) is compatible with a natural language and to which language it could belong. The approach is based on three types of statistical measurements, i.e. obtained from first-order statistics of word properties in a text, from the topology of complex networks representing texts, and from intermittency concepts where text is treated as a time series. Comparative experiments were performed with the New Testament in 15 different languages and with distinct books in English and Portuguese in order to quantify the dependency of the different measurements on the language and on the story being told in the book. The metrics found to be informative in distinguishing real texts from their shuffled versions include assortativity, degree and selectivity of words. As an illustration, we analyze an undeciphered medieval manuscript known as the Voynich Manuscript. We show that it is mostly compatible with natural languages and incompatible with random texts. We also obtain candidates for keywords of the Voynich Manuscript which could be helpful in the effort of deciphering it. Because we were able to identify statistical measurements that are more dependent on the syntax than on the semantics, the framework may also serve for text analysis in language-dependent applications.
- ItemChange in the embedding dimension as an indicator of an approaching transition(San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2014) Neuman, Y.; Marwan, N.; Cohen, Y.Predicting a transition point in behavioral data should take into account the complexity of the signal being influenced by contextual factors. In this paper, we propose to analyze changes in the embedding dimension as contextual information indicating a proceeding transitive point, called OPtimal Embedding tRANsition Detection (OPERAND). Three texts were processed and translated to time-series of emotional polarity. It was found that changes in the embedding dimension proceeded transition points in the data. These preliminary results encourage further research into changes in the embedding dimension as generic markers of an approaching transition point.