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- ItemRemote sensing and modelling analysis of the extreme dust storm hitting the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean in September 2015(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2017) Solomos, Stavros; Ansmann, Albert; Mamouri, Rodanthi-Elisavet; Binietoglou, Ioannis; Patlakas, Platon; Marinou, Eleni; Amiridis, VassilisThe extreme dust storm that affected the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean in September 2015 resulted in record-breaking dust loads over Cyprus with aerosol optical depth exceeding 5.0 at 550Äā¬nm. We analyse this event using profiles from the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO), geostationary observations from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI), and high-resolution simulations from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The analysis of modelling and remote sensing data reveals the main mechanisms that resulted in the generation and persistence of the dust cloud over the Middle East and Cyprus. A combination of meteorological and surface processes is found, including (a) the development of a thermal low in the area of Syria that results in unstable atmospheric conditions and dust mobilization in this area, (b) the convective activity over northern Iraq that triggers the formation of westward-moving haboobs that merge with the previously elevated dust layer, and (c) the changes in land use due to war in the areas of northern Iraq and Syria that enhance dust erodibility.
- ItemAtmospheric Dynamics and Numerical Simulations of Six Frontal Dust Storms in the Middle East Region(Basel : MDPI, 2021) Hamzeh, Nasim Hossein; Karami, Sara; Kaskaoutis, Dimitris G.; Tegen, Ina; Moradi, Mohamad; Opp, ChristianThis study analyzes six frontal dust storms in the Middle East during the cold period (OctoberāMarch), aiming to examine the atmospheric circulation patterns and force dynamics that triggered the fronts and the associated (pre-or post-frontal) dust storms. Cold troughs mostly located over Turkey, Syria and north Iraq played a major role in the front propagation at the surface, while cyclonic conditions and strong winds facilitated the dust storms. The presence of an upper-atmosphere (300 hPa) sub-tropical jet stream traversing from Egypt to Iran constitutes also a dynamic force accompanying the frontal dust storms. Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) observations are used to monitor the spatial and vertical extent of the dust storms, while model (Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS), Regional Climate Model-4 (RegCM4)) simulations are also analyzed. The WRF-Chem outputs were in better agreement with the MODIS observations compared to those of CAMS and RegCM4. The fronts were identified by WRF-Chem simulations via gradients in the potential temperature and sudden changes of wind direction in vertical cross-sections. Overall, the uncertainties in the simulations and the remarkable differences between the model outputs indicate that modelling of dust storms in the Middle East is really challenging due to the complex terrain, incorrect representation of the dust sources and soil/surface characteristics, and uncertainties in simulating the wind speed/direction and meteorological dynamics. Given the potential threat by dust storms, more attention should be directed to the dust model development in this region. Ā© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
- ItemThe sensitivity of the colour of dust in MSG-SEVIRI Desert Dust infrared composite imagery to surface and atmospheric conditions(Gƶttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2019) Banks, J.R.; HĆ¼nerbein, A.; Heinold, B.; Brindley, H.E.; Deneke, H.; Schepanski, K.Infrared "Desert Dust" composite imagery taken by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI), onboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) series of satellites above the equatorial East Atlantic, has been widely used for more than a decade to identify and track the presence of dust storms from and over the Sahara Desert, the Middle East, and southern Africa. Dust is characterised by distinctive pink colours in the Desert Dust false-colour imagery; however, the precise colour is influenced by numerous environmental properties, such as the surface thermal emissivity and skin temperature, the atmospheric water vapour content, the quantity and height of dust in the atmosphere, and the infrared optical properties of the dust itself. For this paper, simulations of SEVIRI infrared measurements and imagery have been performed using a modelling system, which combines dust concentrations simulated by the aerosol transport model COSMO-MUSCAT (COSMO: COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling; MUSCAT: MUltiScale Chemistry Aerosol Transport Model) with radiative transfer simulations from the RTTOV (Radiative Transfer for TOVS) model. Investigating the sensitivity of the synthetic infrared imagery to the environmental properties over a 6-month summertime period from 2011 to 2013, it is confirmed that water vapour is a major control on the apparent colour of dust, obscuring its presence when the moisture content is high. Of the three SEVIRI channels used in the imagery (8.7, 10.8, and 12.0 Ī¼m), the channel at 10.8 Ī¼m has the highest atmospheric transmittance and is therefore the most sensitive to the surface skin temperature. A direct consequence of this sensitivity is that the background desert surface exhibits a strong diurnal cycle in colour, with light blue colours possible during the day and purple hues prevalent at night. In dusty scenes, the clearest pink colours arise from high-altitude dust in dry atmospheres. Elevated dust influences the dust colour primarily by reducing the contrast in atmospheric transmittance above the dust layer between the SEVIRI channels at 10.8 and 12.0 Ī¼m, thereby boosting red and pink colours in the imagery. Hence, the higher the dust altitude, the higher the threshold column moisture needed for dust to be obscured in the imagery: for a sample of dust simulated to have an aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm of 2-3 at an altitude of 3-4 km, the characteristic colour of the dust may only be impaired when the total column water vapour is particularly moist ('39 mm). Meanwhile, dust close to the surface (altitude < 1 km) is only likely to be apparent when the atmosphere is particularly dry and when the surface is particularly hot, requiring column moisture/13 mm and skin temperatures '314 K, and is highly unlikely to be apparent when the skin temperature is/300 K. Such low-altitude dust will regularly be almost invisible within the imagery, since it will usually be beneath much of the atmospheric water vapour column. It is clear that the interpretation of satellite-derived dust imagery is greatly aided by knowledge of the background environment.
- ItemFreshwater resources under success and failure of the Paris climate agreement(Gƶttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2019) Heinke, Jens; MĆ¼ller, Christoph; Lannerstad, Mats; Gerten, Dieter; Lucht, WolfgangPopulation growth will in many regions increase the pressure on water resources and likely increase the number of people affected by water scarcity. In parallel, global warming causes hydrological changes which will affect freshwater supply for human use in many regions. This study estimates the exposure of future population to severe hydrological changes relevant from a freshwater resource perspective at different levels of global mean temperature rise above pre-industrial level (ĪTglob). The analysis is complemented by an assessment of water scarcity that would occur without additional climate change due to population change alone; this is done to identify the population groups that are faced with particularly high adaptation challenges. The results are analysed in the context of success and failure of implementing the Paris Agreement to evaluate how climate mitigation can reduce the future number of people exposed to severe hydrological change. The results show that without climate mitigation efforts, in the year 2100 about 4.9 billion people in the SSP2 population scenario would more likely than not be exposed to severe hydrological change, and about 2.1 billion of them would be faced with particularly high adaptation challenges due to already prevailing water scarcity. Limiting warming to 2 Ā°C by a successful implementation of the Paris Agreement would strongly reduce these numbers to 615 million and 290 million, respectively. At the regional scale, substantial water-related risks remain at 2 Ā°C, with more than 12% of the population exposed to severe hydrological change and high adaptation challenges in Latin America and the Middle East and north Africa region. Constraining Ī“Tglob to 1.5 Ā°C would limit this share to about 5% in these regions. Ā©2019 Author(s).
- ItemTwo-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2018) Heino, M.; Puma, M.J.; Ward, P.J.; Gerten, D.; Heck, V.; Siebert, S.; Kummu, M.The El NiƱo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaked strongly during the boreal winter 2015-2016, leading to food insecurity in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are known to impact crop yields worldwide. Here we assess for the first time in a unified framework the relationships between ENSO, IOD and NAO and simulated crop productivity at the sub-country scale. Our findings reveal that during 1961-2010, crop productivity is significantly influenced by at least one large-scale climate oscillation in two-thirds of global cropland area. Besides observing new possible links, especially for NAO in Africa and the Middle East, our analyses confirm several known relationships between crop productivity and these oscillations. Our results improve the understanding of climatological crop productivity drivers, which is essential for enhancing food security in many of the most vulnerable places on the planet.