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- ItemThe influence of dust optical properties on the colour of simulated MSG-SEVIRI Desert Dust infrared imagery(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2018) Banks, Jamie R.; Schepanski, Kerstin; Heinold, Bernd; Hünerbein, Anja; Brindley, Helen E.Satellite imagery of atmospheric mineral dust is sensitive to the optical properties of the dust, governed by the mineral refractive indices, particle size, and particle shape. In infrared channels the imagery is also sensitive to the dust layer height and to the surface and atmospheric environment. Simulations of mineral dust in infrared "Desert Dust" imagery from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) have been performed, using the COSMO-MUSCAT (COSMO: COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling; MUSCAT: MUltiScale Chemistry Aerosol Transport Model) dust transport model and the Radiative Transfer for TOVS (RTTOV) program, in order to investigate the sensitivity of the imagery to assumed dust properties. This paper introduces the technique and performs initial validation and comparisons with SEVIRI measurements over North Africa for daytime hours during 6 months covering June and July of 2011–2013. Using T-matrix scattering theory and assuming the dust particles to be spherical or spheroidal, wavelength- and size-dependent dust extinction values are calculated for a number of different dust refractive index databases, along with several values of the particle aspect ratio, denoting the particle shape. The consequences for the infrared extinction values of both the particle shape and the particle orientation are explored: this analysis shows that as the particle asphericity increases, the extinctions increase if the particles are aligned horizontally, and decrease if they are aligned vertically. Randomly oriented spheroidal particles have very similar infrared extinction properties as spherical particles, whereas the horizontally and vertically aligned particles can be considered to be the upper and lower bounds on the extinction values. Inputting these values into COSMO-MUSCAT-RTTOV, it is found that spherical particles do not appear to be sufficient to describe fully the resultant colour of the dust in the infrared imagery. Comparisons of SEVIRI and simulation colours indicate that of the dust types tested, the dust refractive index dataset produced by Volz (1973) shows the most similarity in the colour response to dust in the SEVIRI imagery, although the simulations have a smaller range of colour than do the observations. It is also found that the thermal imagery is most sensitive to intermediately sized particles (radii between 0.9 and 2.6 µm): larger particles are present in too small a concentration in the simulations, as well as with insufficient contrast in extinction between wavelength channels, to have much ability to perturb the resultant colour in the SEVIRI dust imagery.
- ItemVertical distribution of aerosol optical properties in the Po Valley during the 2012 summer campaigns(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2018) Bucci, Silvia; Cristofanelli, Paolo; Decesari, Stefano; Marinoni, Angela; Sandrini, Silvia; Größ, Johannes; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Di Marco, Chiara F.; Nemitz, Eiko; Cairo, Francesco; Di Liberto, Luca; Fierli, FedericoStudying the vertical distribution of aerosol particle physical and chemical properties in the troposphere is essential to understand the relative importance of local emission processes vs. long-range transport for column-integrated aerosol properties (e.g. the aerosol optical depth, AOD, affecting regional climate) as well as for the aerosol burden and its impacts on air quality at the ground. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the transport of desert dust in the middle troposphere and its intrusion into the planetary boundary layer (PBL) over the Po Valley (Italy), a region considered one of the greatest European pollution hotspots for the frequency that particulate matter (PM) limit values are exceeded. Events of mineral aerosol uplift from local (soil) sources and phenomena of hygroscopic growth at the ground are also investigated, possibly affecting the PM concentration in the region as well. During the PEGASOS 2012 field campaign, an integrated observing-modelling system was set up based on near-surface measurements (particle concentration and chemistry), vertical profiling (backscatter coefficient profiles from lidar and radiosoundings) and Lagrangian air mass transport simulations by FLEXPART model. Measurements were taken at the San Pietro Capofiume supersite (44°39′ĝ€N, 11°37′ĝ€E; 11ĝ€mĝ€a.s.l.), located in a rural area relatively close to some major urban and industrial emissive areas in the Po Valley. Mt. Cimone (44°12′ĝ€N, 10°42′ĝ€E; 2165ĝ€mĝ€a.s.l.) WMO/GAW station observations are also included in the study to characterize regional-scale variability. Results show that, in the Po Valley, aerosol is detected mainly below 2000ĝ€mĝ€a.s.l. with a prevalent occurrence of non-depolarizing particles ( > 50ĝ€% throughout the campaign) and a vertical distribution modulated by the PBL daily evolution. Two intense events of mineral dust transport from northern Africa (19-21 and 29 June to 2 July) are observed, with layers advected mainly above 2000ĝ€m, but subsequently sinking and mixing in the PBL. As a consequence, a non-negligible occurrence of mineral dust is observed close to the ground ( ĝ1/4 7ĝ€% of occurrence during a 1-month campaign). The observations unambiguously show Saharan dust layers intruding the Po Valley mixing layer and directly affecting the aerosol concentrations near the surface. Finally, lidar observations also indicate strong variability in aerosol on shorter timescales (hourly). Firstly, these highlight events of hygroscopic growth of anthropogenic aerosol, visible as shallow layers of low depolarization near the ground. Such events are identified during early morning hours at high relative humidity (RH) conditions (RHĝ€ > 80ĝ€%). The process is observed concurrently with high PM1 nitrate concentration (up to 15ĝ€μgĝ€cmĝ'3) and hence mainly explicable by deliquescence of fine anthropogenic particles, and during mineral dust intrusion episodes, when water condensation on dust particles could instead represent the dominant contribution. Secondly, lidar images show frequent events (mean daily occurrence of ĝ1/4 ĝ€22ĝ€% during the whole campaign) of rapid uplift of mineral depolarizing particles in afternoon-evening hours up to 2000ĝ€mĝ€a.s.l. height. The origin of such particles cannot be directly related to long-range transport events, being instead likely linked to processes of soil particle resuspension from agricultural lands.
- ItemFreshwater resources under success and failure of the Paris climate agreement(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2019) Heinke, Jens; Müller, Christoph; Lannerstad, Mats; Gerten, Dieter; Lucht, WolfgangPopulation growth will in many regions increase the pressure on water resources and likely increase the number of people affected by water scarcity. In parallel, global warming causes hydrological changes which will affect freshwater supply for human use in many regions. This study estimates the exposure of future population to severe hydrological changes relevant from a freshwater resource perspective at different levels of global mean temperature rise above pre-industrial level (ΔTglob). The analysis is complemented by an assessment of water scarcity that would occur without additional climate change due to population change alone; this is done to identify the population groups that are faced with particularly high adaptation challenges. The results are analysed in the context of success and failure of implementing the Paris Agreement to evaluate how climate mitigation can reduce the future number of people exposed to severe hydrological change. The results show that without climate mitigation efforts, in the year 2100 about 4.9 billion people in the SSP2 population scenario would more likely than not be exposed to severe hydrological change, and about 2.1 billion of them would be faced with particularly high adaptation challenges due to already prevailing water scarcity. Limiting warming to 2 °C by a successful implementation of the Paris Agreement would strongly reduce these numbers to 615 million and 290 million, respectively. At the regional scale, substantial water-related risks remain at 2 °C, with more than 12% of the population exposed to severe hydrological change and high adaptation challenges in Latin America and the Middle East and north Africa region. Constraining δTglob to 1.5 °C would limit this share to about 5% in these regions. ©2019 Author(s).
- ItemLongitude-dependent decadal ozone changes and ozone trends in boreal winter months during 1960-2000(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2008) Peters, D.H.W.; Gabriel, A.; Entzian, G.This study examines the longitude-dependent decadal changes and trends of ozone for the boreal winter months during the period of 1960–2000. These changes are caused primarily by changes in the planetary wave structure in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The decadal changes and trends over 4 decades of geopotential perturbations, defined as a deviation from the zonal mean, are estimated by linear regression with time. The decadal changes in longitude-dependent ozone were calculated with a simple transport model of ozone based on the known planetary wave structure changes and prescribed zonal mean ozone gradients. For December of the 1960s and 1980s a statistically significant Rossby wave track appeared over the North Atlantic and Europe with an anticyclonic disturbance over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe, flanked by cyclonic disturbances. In the 1970s and 1990s statistically significant cyclonic disturbances appeared over the Eastern North Atlantic and Europe, surrounded by anticyclonic anomalies over Northern Africa, Central Asia and Greenland. Similar patterns have been found for January. The Rossby wave track over the North Atlantic and Europe is stronger in the 1980s than in the 1960s. For February, the variability of the regression patterns is higher. For January we found a strong alteration in the modelled decadal changes in total ozone over Central and Northern Europe, showing a decrease of about 15 DU in the 1960s and 1980s and an increase of about 10 DU in the 1970s and 1990s. Over Central Europe the positive geopotential height trend (increase of 2.3 m/yr) over 40 years is of the same order (about 100 m) as the increase in the 1980s alone. This is important to recognize because it implies a total ozone decrease over Europe of the order of 14 DU for the 1960–2000 period, for January, if we use the standard change regression relation that about a 10-m geopotential height increase at 300 hPa is related to about a 1.4-DU total ozone decrease.
- ItemNorth African mineral dust sources: New insights from a combined analysis based on 3D dust aerosol distributions, surface winds and ancillary soil parameters(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Vandenbussche, Sophie; Callewaert, Sieglinde; Schepanski, Kerstin; De Mazière, MartineMineral dust aerosol is a key player in the climate system. Determining dust sources and the spatio-temporal variability of dust emission fluxes is essential for estimating the impact of dust on the atmospheric radiation budget, cloud and precipitation formation processes, the bio-productivity and, ultimately, the carbon cycle. Although much effort has been put into determining dust sources from satellite observations, geo-locating active dust sources is still challenging and uncertainties in space and time are evident. One major source of uncertainty is the lack of clear differentiation between near-source dust aerosol and transported dust aerosol. In order to reduce this uncertainty, we use 3D information on the distribution of dust aerosol suspended in the atmosphere calculated from spectral measurements obtained by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) by using the Mineral Aerosols Profiling from Infrared Radiance (MAPIR) algorithm. In addition to standard dust products from satellite observations, which provide 2D information on the horizontal distribution of dust, MAPIR allows for the retrieval of additional information on the vertical distribution of dust plumes. This ultimately enables us to separate between near-source and transported dust plumes. Combined with information on near-surface wind speed and surface properties, low-altitude dust plumes can be assigned to dust emission events and low-altitude transport regimes can be excluded. Consequently, this technique will reduce the uncertainty in automatically geo-locating active dust sources. The findings of our study illustrate the spatio-temporal distribution of North African dust sources based on 9 years of data, allowing for the observation of a full seasonal cycle of dust emissions, differentiating morning and afternoon/evening emissions and providing a first glance at long-term changes. In addition, we compare the results of this new method to the results from Schepanski et al. (2012), who manually identified dust sources from Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) red-green-blue (RGB) images. The comparison illustrates that each method has its strengths and weaknesses that must be taken into account when using the results. This study is of particular importance for understanding future environmental changes due to a changing climate. © Author(s) 2020
- ItemClimate-driven or human-induced: Indicating severe water scarcity in the Moulouya river basin (Morocco)(Basel : MDPI AG, 2012) Tekken, V.; Kropp, J.P.Many agriculture-based economies are increasingly under stress from climate change and socio-economic pressures. The excessive exploitation of natural resources still represents the standard procedure to achieve socio-economic development. In the area of the Moulouya river basin, Morocco, natural water availability represents a key resource for all economic activities. Agriculture represents the most important sector, and frequently occurring water deficits are aggravated by climate change. On the basis of historical trends taken from CRU TS 2.1, this paper analyses the impact of climate change on the per capita water availability under inclusion of population trends. The Climatic Water Balance (CWB) shows a significant decrease for the winter period, causing adverse effects for the main agricultural season. Further, moisture losses due to increasing evapotranspiration rates indicate problems for the annual water budget and groundwater recharge. The per capita blue water availability falls below a minimum threshold of 500 m3 per year, denoting a high regional vulnerability to increasing water scarcity assuming a no-response scenario. Regional development focusing on the water-intense sectors of agriculture and tourism appears to be at risk. Institutional capacities and policies need to address the problem, and the prompt implementation of innovative water production and efficiency measures is recommended.
- ItemSpectral surface albedo over Morocco and its impact on radiative forcing of Saharan dust(Abingdon : Taylor & Francis, 2009) Bierwirth, E.; Wendisch, M.; Ehrlich, A.; Heese, B.; Tesche, M.; Althausen, D.; Schladitz, A.; Müller, D.; Otto, S.; Trautmann, T.; Dinter, T.; Von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kahn, R.In May-June 2006, airborne and ground-based solar (0.3-2.2 μm) and thermal infrared (4-42 μm) radiation measurements have been performed in Morocco within the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment (SAMUM). Upwelling and downwelling solar irradiances have been measured using the Spectral Modular Airborne Radiation Measurement System (SMART)-Albedometer. With these data, the areal spectral surface albedo for typical surface types in southeastern Morocco was derived from airborne measurements for the first time. The results are compared to the surface albedo retrieved from collocated satellite measurements, and partly considerable deviations are observed. Using measured surface and atmospheric properties, the spectral and broad-band dust radiative forcing at top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and at the surface has been estimated. The impact of the surface albedo on the solar radiative forcing of Saharan dust is quantified. In the SAMUM case of 19 May 2006, TOA solar radiative forcing varies by 12 W m-2 per 0.1 surface-albedo change. For the thermal infrared component, values of up to +22 W m-2 were derived. The net (solar plus thermal infrared) TOA radiative forcing varies between -19 and +24 W m-2 for a broad-band solar surface albedo of 0.0 and 0.32, respectively. Over the bright surface of southeastern Morocco, the Saharan dust always has a net warming effect. © 2008 The Author Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Munksgaard.