Search Results
Enhanced Atlantic subpolar gyre variability through baroclinic threshold in a coarse resolution model
Direct observations, satellite measurements and paleo records reveal strong variability in the Atlantic subpolar gyre on various time scales. Here we show that variations of comparable amplitude can only be simulated in a coupled climate model in the proximity of a dynamical threshold. The threshold and the associated dynamic response is due to a positive feedback involving increased salt transport in the subpolar gyre and enhanced deep convection in its centre. A series of sensitivity experiments is performed with a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model coupled to a statistical-dynamical atmosphere model which in itself does not produce atmospheric variability. To simulate the impact of atmospheric variability, the model system is perturbed with freshwater forcing of varying, but small amplitude and multi-decadal to centennial periodicities and observational variations in wind stress. While both freshwater and wind-stress-forcing have a small direct effect on the strength of the subpolar gyre, the magnitude of the gyre's response is strongly increased in the vicinity of the threshold. Our results indicate that baroclinic self-amplification in the North Atlantic ocean can play an important role in presently observed SPG variability and thereby North Atlantic climate variability on multi-decadal scales.
Constraining two climate field reconstruction methodologies over the North Atlantic realm using pseudo-proxy experiments
This study presents pseudo-proxy experiments to quantify the reconstruction skill of two climate field reconstruction methodologies for a marine proxy network subject to age uncertainties. The BARCAST methodology (Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time) is tested for sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction for the first time over the northern North Atlantic region, and compared with a classic analogue reconstruction methodology. The reconstruction experiments are performed at annual and decadal resolution. We implement chronological uncertainties inherent to marine proxies as a novelty, using a simulated age-model ensemble covering the past millennium. Our experiments comprise different scenarios for the input data network, with the noise levels added to the target variable extending from ideal to realistic. Results show that both methodologies are able to reconstruct the Summer mean SST skillfully when the proxy network is considered absolutely dated, but the skill of the analogue method is superior to BARCAST. Only the analogue method provides skillful correlations with the true target variable in the case of a realistic noisy and age-uncertain proxy network. The spatiotemporal properties of the input target data are partly contrasting with the BARCAST model formulations, resulting in an inferior reconstruction ensemble that is similar to a white-noise stochastic process in time. The analogue method is also successful in reconstructing decadal temperatures, while BARCAST fails. The results contribute to constraining uncertainties in CFR for ocean dynamics which are highly important for climate across the globe.
Mechanism for potential strengthening of Atlantic overturning prior to collapse
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) carries large amounts of heat into the North Atlantic influencing climate regionally as well as globally. Palaeo-records and simulations with comprehensive climate models suggest that the positive salt-advection feedback may yield a threshold behaviour of the system. That is to say that beyond a certain amount of freshwater flux into the North Atlantic, no meridional overturning circulation can be sustained. Concepts of monitoring the AMOC and identifying its vicinity to the threshold rely on the fact that the volume flux defining the AMOC will be reduced when approaching the threshold. Here we advance conceptual models that have been used in a paradigmatic way to understand the AMOC, by introducing a density-dependent parameterization for the Southern Ocean eddies. This additional degree of freedom uncovers a mechanism by which the AMOC can increase with additional freshwater flux into the North Atlantic, before it reaches the threshold and collapses: an AMOC that is mainly wind-driven will have a constant upwelling as long as the Southern Ocean winds do not change significantly. The downward transport of tracers occurs either in the northern sinking regions or through Southern Ocean eddies. If freshwater is transported, either atmospherically or via horizontal gyres, from the low to high latitudes, this would reduce the eddy transport and by continuity increase the northern sinking which defines the AMOC until a threshold is reached at which the AMOC cannot be sustained. If dominant in the real ocean this mechanism would have significant consequences for monitoring the AMOC.
Millennial-scale fluctuations in Saharan dust supply across the decline of the African Humid Period
The Sahara is the world's largest dust source with significant impacts on trans-Atlantic terrestrial and large-scale marine ecosystems. Contested views about a gradual or abrupt onset of Saharan aridity at the end of the African Humid Period dominate the current scientific debate about the Holocene Saharan desiccation. In this study, we present a 19.63 m sediment core sequence from Lake Sidi Ali (Middle Atlas, Morocco) at the North African desert margin. We reconstruct the interaction between Saharan dust supply and Western Mediterranean hydro-climatic variability during the last 12,000 yr based on analyses of lithogenic grain-sizes, XRF geochemistry and stable isotopes of ostracod shells. A robust chronological model based on AMS 14C dated pollen concentrates supports our multi-proxy study. At orbital-scale there is an overall increase in southern dust supply from the Early Holocene to the Late Holocene, but our Northern Saharan dust record indicates that a gradual Saharan desiccation was interrupted by multiple abrupt dust increases before the ‘southern dust mode‘ was finally established at 4.7 cal ka BP. The Sidi Ali record features millennial peaks in Saharan dust increase at about 11.1, 10.2, 9.4, 8.2, 7.3, 6.6, 6.0, and 5.0 cal ka BP. Early Holocene Saharan dust peaks coincide with Western Mediterranean winter rain minima and North Atlantic cooling events. In contrast, Late Holocene dust peaks correspond mostly with prevailing positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. By comparing with other North African records, we suggest that increases in Northern Saharan dust supply do not solely indicate sub-regional to regional aridity in Mediterranean Northwest Africa but might reflect aridity at a trans-Saharan scale. In particular, our findings support major bimillennial phases of trans-Saharan aridity at 10.2, 8.2, 6.0 and 4.2 cal ka BP. These phases coincide with North Atlantic cooling and a weak African monsoon.
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming
Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks. For the United States, we find that economic growth losses scale superlinearly with shock heterogeneity. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with the magnitude of direct damage, which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. On the basis of two different methods to estimate the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes, we project annual growth losses to increase between 10 and 146% in a 2°C world compared to the period 1980–2014. Our modeling suggests that higher insurance coverage can compensate for this climate change–induced increase in growth losses.