3 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
- ItemModelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: the PyCascades package(Berlin ; Heidelberg : Springer, 2021) Wunderling, Nico; Krönke, Jonathan; Wohlfarth, Valentin; Kohler, Jan; Heitzig, Jobst; Staal, Arie; Willner, Sven; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Donges, Jonathan F.Tipping elements occur in various systems such as in socio-economics, ecology and the climate system. In many cases, the individual tipping elements are not independent of each other, but they interact across scales in time and space. To model systems of interacting tipping elements, we here introduce the PyCascades open source software package for studying interacting tipping elements (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4153102). PyCascades is an object-oriented and easily extendable package written in the programming language Python. It allows for investigating under which conditions potentially dangerous cascades can emerge between interacting dynamical systems, with a focus on tipping elements. With PyCascades it is possible to use different types of tipping elements such as double-fold and Hopf types and interactions between them. PyCascades can be applied to arbitrary complex network structures and has recently been extended to stochastic dynamical systems. This paper provides an overview of the functionality of PyCascades by introducing the basic concepts and the methodology behind it. In the end, three examples are discussed, showing three different applications of the software package. First, the moisture recycling network of the Amazon rainforest is investigated. Second, a model of interacting Earth system tipping elements is discussed. And third, the PyCascades modelling framework is applied to a global trade network.
- ItemAdapting flood preparedness tools to changing flood risk conditions: The situation in Poland(Sopot : Polish Academy of Sciences, 2014) Kundzewicz, Z.W.Flooding is the most destructive natural hazard in the Baltic Sea Basin in general and in Poland in particular. The notion includes floods from rivers and mountain torrents, as well as floods from sea surges in coastal areas, and floods from sewage systems. There have been several large floods in Poland in the last century and in recent decades, with damage exceeding 1% of the Polish GDP. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the flood risk in Poland are reviewed and observations and projections of changes in the flood hazard in the country are discussed. Furthermore, flood defences and flood preparedness systems in Poland are examined, with particular reference to the European Union (EU) Floods Directive, which is being implemented in Poland, an EU country. Finally, the public debate on flood risk and flood preparedness is reviewed.
- ItemThe environmental footprint of health care: a global assessment(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2020) Lenzen, Manfred; Malik, Arunima; Li, Mengyu; Fry, Jacob; Weisz, Helga; Pichler, Peter-Paul; Chaves, Leonardo Suveges Moreira; Capon, Anthony; Pencheon, DavidBackground: Health-care services are necessary for sustaining and improving human wellbeing, yet they have an environmental footprint that contributes to environment-related threats to human health. Previous studies have quantified the carbon emissions resulting from health care at a global level. We aimed to provide a global assessment of the wide-ranging environmental impacts of this sector. Methods: In this multiregional input-output analysis, we evaluated the contribution of health-care sectors in driving environmental damage that in turn puts human health at risk. Using a global supply-chain database containing detailed information on health-care sectors, we quantified the direct and indirect supply-chain environmental damage driven by the demand for health care. We focused on seven environmental stressors with known adverse feedback cycles: greenhouse gas emissions, particulate matter, air pollutants (nitrogen oxides and sulphur dioxide), malaria risk, reactive nitrogen in water, and scarce water use. Findings: Health care causes global environmental impacts that, depending on which indicator is considered, range between 1% and 5% of total global impacts, and are more than 5% for some national impacts. Interpretation: Enhancing health-care expenditure to mitigate negative health effects of environmental damage is often promoted by health-care practitioners. However, global supply chains that feed into the enhanced activity of health-care sectors in turn initiate adverse feedback cycles by increasing the environmental impact of health care, thus counteracting the mission of health care. Funding: Australian Research Council, National eResearch Collaboration Tools and Resources project. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license