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Subject: Space weather × WGL Institute: AIP ×

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    The PAC2MAN mission: A new tool to understand and predict solar energetic events
    (Les Ulis : EDP Sciences, 2015) Amaya, Jorge; Musset, Sophie; Andersson, Viktor; Diercke, Andrea; Höller, Christian; Iliev, Sergiu; Juhász, Lilla; Kiefer, René; Lasagni, Riccardo; Lejosne, Solène; Madi, Mohammad; Rummelhagen, Mirko; Scheucher, Markus; Sorba, Arianna; Thonhofer, Stefan
    An accurate forecast of flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) initiation requires precise measurements of the magnetic energy buildup and release in the active regions of the solar atmosphere. We designed a new space weather mission that performs such measurements using new optical instruments based on the Hanle and Zeeman effects. The mission consists of two satellites, one orbiting the L1 Lagrangian point (Spacecraft Earth, SCE) and the second in heliocentric orbit at 1AU trailing the Earth by 80° (Spacecraft 80, SC80). Optical instruments measure the vector magnetic field in multiple layers of the solar atmosphere. The orbits of the spacecraft allow for a continuous imaging of nearly 73% of the total solar surface. In-situ plasma instruments detect solar wind conditions at 1AU and ahead of our planet. Earth-directed CMEs can be tracked using the stereoscopic view of the spacecraft and the strategic placement of the SC80 satellite. Forecasting of geoeffective space weather events is possible thanks to an accurate surveillance of the magnetic energy buildup in the Sun, an optical tracking through the interplanetary space, and in-situ measurements of the near-Earth environment.
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    Bayesian approach for auroral oval reconstruction from ground-based observations
    (Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 2022) Wagner, D.; Neuhäuser, R.; Arlt, R.
    Naked eye observations of aurorae might be used to obtain information on the large-scale magnetic field of the Earth at historic times. Their abundance may also help bridge gaps in observational time-series of proxies for solar activity such as the sunspot number or cosmogenic isotopes. With information derived from aurora observations like observing site, time of aurora sighting and position on the sky we can reconstruct the auroral oval. Since aurorae are correlated with geomagnetic indices like the Kp index, it is possible to obtain information about the terrestrial magnetic field in the form of the position of the magnetic poles as well as the magnetic disturbance level. Here we present a Bayesian approach to reconstruct the auroral oval from ground-based observations by using two different auroral oval models. With this method we can estimate the position of the magnetic poles in corrected geomagnetic coordinates as well as the Kp index. The method is first validated on synthetic observations before it is applied to four modern geomagnetic storms between 2003 and 2017 where ground-based reports and photographs were used to obtain the necessary information. Based on the four modern geomagnetic storms we have shown, that we are able to reconstruct the pole location with an average accuracy of ≈2° in latitude and ≈11° in longitude. The Kp index can be inferred with a precision of one class. The future goal is to employ the method to historical storms, where we expect somewhat higher uncertainties, since observations may be less accurate or not favorably distributed.