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Comparison of Methane Emission Patterns from Dairy Housings with Solid and Slatted Floors at Two Locations
Methane (CH4) emissions from dairy husbandry are a hot topic in the context of active climate protection, where housing systems with slatted floors and slurry storage inside are in general expected to emit more than systems with solid floors. There are multiple factors, including climate conditions, that modulate the emission pattern. In this study, we investigated interrelations between CH4 emission patterns and climate conditions as well as differences between farm locations versus floor effects. We considered three data sets with 265, 264 and 275 hourly emission values from two housing systems (one slatted, one solid floor) in Switzerland and one system with solid floors in Germany. Each data set incorporated measurements in summer, winter and a transition season. The average CH4 emission was highest for the slatted floor system. For the solid floor systems, CH4 emissions at the Swiss location were around 30% higher compared to the German location. The shape of the distributions for the two solid floor systems was rather similar but very different from the distribution for the slatted floor system, which showed higher prevalence for extreme emissions. Rank correlations, which measure the degree of similarity between two rankings in terms of linear relation, were not able to detect dependencies at the selected significance level. In contrast, mutual information, which measures more general statistical dependencies in terms of shared information, revealed highly significant dependencies for almost all variable pairs. The weakest statistical relation was found between winds speed and CH4 emission, but the convection regime was found to play a key role. Clustering was consistent among the three data sets with five typical clusters related to high/low temperature and wind speed, respectively, as well as in some cases to morning and evening hours. Our analysis showed that despite the disparate and often insignificant correlation between environmental variables and CH4 emission, there is a strong relation between both, which shapes the emission pattern in many aspects much more in addition to differences in the floor type. Although a clear distinction of high and low emission condition clusters based on the selected environmental variables was not possible, trends were clearly visible. Further research with larger data sets is advisable to verify the detected trends and enable prognoses for husbandry systems under different climate conditions.
A novel bias correction methodology for climate impact simulations
Understanding, quantifying and attributing the impacts of extreme weather and climate events in the terrestrial biosphere is crucial for societal adaptation in a changing climate. However, climate model simulations generated for this purpose typically exhibit biases in their output that hinder any straightforward assessment of impacts. To overcome this issue, various bias correction strategies are routinely used to alleviate climate model deficiencies, most of which have been criticized for physical inconsistency and the nonpreservation of the multivariate correlation structure. In this study, we introduce a novel, resampling-based bias correction scheme that fully preserves the physical consistency and multivariate correlation structure of the model output. This procedure strongly improves the representation of climatic extremes and variability in a large regional climate model ensemble (HadRM3P, climateprediction.net/weatherathome), which is illustrated for summer extremes in temperature and rainfall over Central Europe. Moreover, we simulate biosphere–atmosphere fluxes of carbon and water using a terrestrial ecosystem model (LPJmL) driven by the bias-corrected climate forcing. The resampling-based bias correction yields strongly improved statistical distributions of carbon and water fluxes, including the extremes. Our results thus highlight the importance of carefully considering statistical moments beyond the mean for climate impact simulations. In conclusion, the present study introduces an approach to alleviate climate model biases in a physically consistent way and demonstrates that this yields strongly improved simulations of climate extremes and associated impacts in the terrestrial biosphere. A wider uptake of our methodology by the climate and impact modelling community therefore seems desirable for accurately quantifying changes in past, current and future extremes.