Search Results
Estimating global cropland production from 1961 to 2010
Global cropland net primary production (NPP) has tripled over the last 50 years, contributing 17–45 % to the increase in global atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude. Although many regional-scale comparisons have been made between statistical data and modeling results, long-term national comparisons across global croplands are scarce due to the lack of detailed spatiotemporal management data. Here, we conducted a simulation study of global cropland NPP from 1961 to 2010 using a process-based model called Vegetation–Global Atmosphere–Soil (VEGAS) and compared the results with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) statistical data on both continental and country scales. According to the FAO data, the global cropland NPP was 1.3, 1.8, 2.2, 2.6, 3.0, and 3.6 PgC yr−1 in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, respectively. The VEGAS model captured these major trends on global and continental scales. The NPP increased most notably in the US Midwest, western Europe, and the North China Plain and increased modestly in Africa and Oceania. However, significant biases remained in some regions such as Africa and Oceania, especially in temporal evolution. This finding is not surprising as VEGAS is the first global carbon cycle model with full parameterization representing the Green Revolution. To improve model performance for different major regions, we modified the default values of management intensity associated with the agricultural Green Revolution differences across various regions to better match the FAO statistical data at the continental level and for selected countries. Across all the selected countries, the updated results reduced the RMSE from 19.0 to 10.5 TgC yr−1 (∼ 45 % decrease). The results suggest that these regional differences in model parameterization are due to differences in socioeconomic development. To better explain the past changes and predict the future trends, it is important to calibrate key parameters on regional scales and develop data sets for land management history.
Regularization of statistical inverse problems and the Bakushinskii veto
Literaturverz. In the deterministic context Bakushinskiui's theorem excludes the existence of purely data driven convergent regularization for ill-posed problems. We will prove in the present work that in the statistical setting we can either construct a counter example or develop an equivalent formulation depending on the considered class of probability distributions. Hence, Bakushinskiui's theorem does not generalize to the statistical context, although this has often been assumed in the past. To arrive at this conclusion, we will deduce from the classic theory new concepts for a general study of statistical inverse problems and perform a systematic clarification of the key ideas of statistical regularization
The enhanced Sanov theorem and propagation of chaos
We establish a Sanov type large deviation principle for an ensemble of interacting Brownian rough paths. As application a large deviations for the (-layer, enhanced) empirical measure of weakly interacting diffusions is obtained. This in turn implies a propagation of chaos result in a space of rough paths and allows for a robust analysis of the particle system and its McKean–Vlasov type limit, as shown in two corollaries.