Search Results
Variations of the aerosol chemical composition during Asian dust storm at Dushanbe, Tajikistan
2019, Fomba, Khanneh Wadinga, Müller, Konrad, Hofer, Julian, Makhmudov, Abduvosit N., Althausen, Dietrich, Nazarov, Bahron I., Abdullaev, Sabur F., Herrmann, Hartmut
Aerosol chemical composition was characterized during the Central Asian Dust Experiment (CADEX) at Dushanbe (Tajikistan). Aerosol samples were collected during a period of 2 months from March to May 2015 using a high volume DIGITEL DHA-80 sampler on quartz fiber filters. The filters were analyzed for their ionic, trace metals as well as organic and elemental carbon (OC/EC) content. The aerosol mass showed strong variation with mass concentration ranging from 18 μg/m3 to 110 μg/m3. The mineral dust concentrations varied between 0.9 μg/m3 and 88 μg/m3. Days of high aerosol mass loadings were dominated by mineral dust, which made up to about 80% of the aerosol mass while organic matter and inorganic ions made up about 70% of the aerosol mass during days of low aerosol mass loadings. The mineral dust composition showed different trace metal signatures in comparison to Saharan dust with higher Ca content and Ca/Fe ratios twice as high as that observed in Saharan dust. Strong influence of anthropogenic activities was observed in the trace metal concentrations with Zn and Pb concentrations ranging from 7 to 197 ng/m3 and 2 to 20 ng/m3, respectively. Mineral dust and anthropogenic activities relating to traffic, combustion as well as metallurgical industrial emissions are identified as the sources of the aerosol during this period. © 2019 The Authors, published by EDP Sciences.
Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change
2014, Lehmann, J., Coumou, D., Frieler, K., Eliseev, A.V., Levermann, A.
The weather in Eurasia, Australia, and North and South America is largely controlled by the strength and position of extratropical storm tracks. Future climate change will likely affect these storm tracks and the associated transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour. Many recent studies have analyzed how storm tracks will change under climate change, and how these changes are related to atmospheric dynamics. However, there are still discrepancies between different studies on how storm tracks will change under future climate scenarios. Here, we show that under global warming the CMIP5 ensemble of coupled climate models projects only little relative changes in vertically averaged mid-latitude mean storm track activity during the northern winter, but agree in projecting a substantial decrease during summer. Seasonal changes in the Southern Hemisphere show the opposite behaviour, with an intensification in winter and no change during summer. These distinct seasonal changes in northern summer and southern winter storm tracks lead to an amplified seasonal cycle in a future climate. Similar changes are seen in the mid-latitude mean Eady growth rate maximum, a measure that combines changes in vertical shear and static stability based on baroclinic instability theory. Regression analysis between changes in the storm tracks and changes in the maximum Eady growth rate reveal that most models agree in a positive association between the two quantities over mid-latitude regions.
Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector
2013, Held, H., Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Pardowitz, T., Pinto, J.G., Ulbrich, U., Born, K., Donat, M.G., Karremann, M.K., Leckebusch, G.C., Ludwig, P., Nissen, K.M., Österle, H., Prahl, B.F., Werner, P.C., Befort, D.J., Burghoff, O.
We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971-2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6-35 % for 2011-2040, of 20-30 % for 2041-2070, and of 40-55 % for 2071-2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.
Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?
2017, Reyer, Christopher P.O., Bathgate, Stephen, Blennow, Kristina, Borges, Jose G., Bugmann, Harald, Delzon, Sylvain, Faias, Sonia P., Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi, Gardiner, Barry, Gonzalez-Olabarria, Jose Ramon, Gracia, Carlos, Hernández, Juan Guerra, Kellomäki, Seppo, Kramer, Koen, Lexer, Manfred J., Lindner, Marcus, van der Maaten, Ernst, Maroschek, Michael, Muys, Bart, Nicoll, Bruce, Palahi, Marc, Palma, João HN, Paulo, Joana A., Peltola, Heli, Pukkala, Timo, Rammer, Werner, Ray, Duncan, Sabaté, Santiago, Schelhaas, Mart-Jan, Seidl, Rupert, Temperli, Christian, Tomé, Margarida, Yousefpour, Rasoul, Zimmermann, Niklaus E., Hanewinkel, Marc
Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.
Sustainable management of river oases along the Tarim River (SuMaRiO) in Northwest China under conditions of climate change
2015, Rumbaur, C., Thevs, N., Disse, M., Ahlheim, M., Brieden, A., Cyffka, B., Duethmann, D., Feike, T., Frör, O., Gärtner, P., Halik, Ü., Hill, J., Hinnenthal, M., Keilholz, P., Kleinschmit, B., Krysanova, V., Kuba, M., Mader, S., Menz, C., Othmanli, H., Pelz, S., Schroeder, M., Siew, T.F., Stender, V., Stahr, K., Thomas, F.M., Welp, M., Wortmann, M., Zhao, X., Chen, X., Jiang, T., Luo, J., Yimit, H., Yu, R., Zhang, X., Zhao, C.
The Tarim River basin, located in Xinjiang, NW China, is the largest endorheic river basin in China and one of the largest in all of Central Asia. Due to the extremely arid climate, with an annual precipitation of less than 100 mm, the water supply along the Aksu and Tarim rivers solely depends on river water. This is linked to anthropogenic activities (e.g., agriculture) and natural and semi-natural ecosystems as both compete for water. The ongoing increase in water consumption by agriculture and other human activities in this region has been enhancing the competition for water between human needs and nature. Against this background, 11 German and 6 Chinese universities and research institutes have formed the consortium SuMaRiO (Sustainable Management of River Oases along the Tarim River; http://www.sumario.de), which aims to create a holistic picture of the availability of water resources in the Tarim River basin and the impacts on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems caused by the water distribution within the Tarim River basin. On the basis of the results from field studies and modeling approaches as well as from suggestions by the relevant regional stakeholders, a decision support tool (DST) will be implemented that will then assist stakeholders in balancing the competition for water, acknowledging the major external effects of water allocation to agriculture and to natural ecosystems. This consortium was formed in 2011 and is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. As the data collection phase was finished this year, the paper presented here brings together the results from the fields from the disciplines of climate modeling, cryology, hydrology, agricultural sciences, ecology, geoinformatics, and social sciences in order to present a comprehensive picture of the effects of different water availability schemes on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems along the Tarim River. The second objective is to present the project structure of the whole consortium, the current status of work (i.e., major new results and findings), explain the foundation of the decision support tool as a key product of this project, and conclude with application recommendations for the region. The discharge of the Aksu River, which is the major tributary of the Tarim, has been increasing over the past 6 decades. From 1989 to 2011, agricultural area more than doubled: cotton became the major crop and there was a shift from small-scale to large-scale intensive farming. The ongoing increase in irrigated agricultural land leads to the increased threat of salinization and soil degradation caused by increased evapotranspiration. Aside from agricultural land, the major natural and semi-natural ecosystems are riparian (Tugai) forests, shrub vegetation, reed beds, and other grassland, as well as urban and peri-urban vegetation. Within the SuMaRiO cluster, focus has been set on the Tugai forests, with Populus euphratica as the dominant tree species, because these forests belong to the most productive and species-rich natural ecosystems of the Tarim River basin. At sites close to the groundwater, the annual stem diameter increments of Populus euphratica correlated with the river runoffs of the previous year. However, the natural river dynamics cease along the downstream course and thus hamper the recruitment of Populus euphratica. A study on the willingness to pay for the conservation of the natural ecosystems was conducted to estimate the concern of the people in the region and in China's capital. These household surveys revealed that there is a considerable willingness to pay for conservation of the natural ecosystems, with mitigation of dust and sandstorms considered the most important ecosystem service. Stakeholder dialogues contributed to creating a scientific basis for a sustainable management in the future.
Impacts of a capillary barrier on infiltration and subsurface stormflow in layered slope deposits monitored with 3-D ERT and hydrometric measurements
2017, Hübner, Rico, Günther, Thomas, Heller, Katja, Noell, Ursula, Kleber, Arno
Identifying principles of water movement in the shallow subsurface is crucial for adequate process-based hydrological models. Hillslopes are the essential interface for water movement in catchments. The shallow subsurface on slopes typically consists of different layers with varying characteristics. The aim of this study was to draw conclusions about the infiltration behaviour, to identify water flow pathways and derive some general interpretations for the validity of the water movement on a hillslope with periglacial slope deposits (cover beds), where the layers differ in their sedimentological and hydrological properties. Especially the described varying influence of the basal layer (LB) as an impeding layer on the one hand and as a remarkable pathway for rapid subsurface stormflow on the other. We used a time lapse 3-D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) approach combined with punctual hydrometric data to trace the spreading and the progression of an irrigation plume in layered slope deposits during two irrigation experiments. This multi-technical approach enables us to connect the high spatial resolution of the 3-D ERT with the high temporal resolution of the hydrometric devices. Infiltration through the uppermost layer was dominated by preferential flow, whereas the water flow in the deeper layers was mainly matrix flow. Subsurface stormflow due to impeding characteristic of the underlying layer occurs in form of "organic layer interflow" and at the interface to the first basal layer (LB1). However, the main driving factor for subsurface stormflow is the formation of a capillary barrier at the interface to the second basal layer (LB2). The capillary barrier prevents water from entering the deeper layer under unsaturated conditions and diverts the seepage water according to the slope inclination. With higher saturation, the capillary barrier breaks down and water reaches the highly conductive deeper layer. This highlights the importance of the capillary barrier effect for the prevention or activation of different flow pathways under variable hydrological conditions.