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Climate signals in river flood damages emerge under sound regional disaggregation
Climate change affects precipitation patterns. Here, we investigate whether its signals are already detectable in reported river flood damages. We develop an empirical model to reconstruct observed damages and quantify the contributions of climate and socio-economic drivers to observed trends. We show that, on the level of nine world regions, trends in damages are dominated by increasing exposure and modulated by changes in vulnerability, while climate-induced trends are comparably small and mostly statistically insignificant, with the exception of South & Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Asia. However, when disaggregating the world regions into subregions based on river-basins with homogenous historical discharge trends, climate contributions to damages become statistically significant globally, in Asia and Latin America. In most regions, we find monotonous climate-induced damage trends but more years of observations would be needed to distinguish between the impacts of anthropogenic climate forcing and multidecadal oscillations.
Anthropogenic Land Use Change and Adoption of Climate Smart Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa
Compelling evidence in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) shows that Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) has a positive impact on agricultural productivity. However, the uptake of CSA remains low, which is related to anthropogenic, or human-related, decisions about CSA and agricultural land use. This paper assesses households’ decisions to allocate agricultural land to CSA technologies across space and over time. We use the state-contingent theory, mixed methods, and mixed data sources. While agricultural land is increasing, forest land is decreasing across countries in SSA. The results show that household decisions to use CSA and the extent of agricultural land allocation to CSA remain low with a negative trend over time in SSA. Owned land and accessing land through rental markets are positively associated with allocating land to CSA technologies, particularly where land pressure is high. Regarding adaptation, experiencing rainfall shocks is significantly associated with anthropogenic land allocation to CSA technologies. The country policy assessment further supports the need to scale up CSA practices for adaptation, food security, and mitigation. Therefore, scaling up CSA in SSA will require that agriculture-related policies promote land tenure security and land markets while promoting climate-smart farming for food security, adaptation, and mitigation.
Combining ambitious climate policies with efforts to eradicate poverty
Climate change threatens to undermine efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. However, climate policies could impose a financial burden on the global poor through increased energy and food prices. Here, we project poverty rates until 2050 and assess how they are influenced by mitigation policies consistent with the 1.5 °C target. A continuation of historical trends will leave 350 million people globally in extreme poverty by 2030. Without progressive redistribution, climate policies would push an additional 50 million people into poverty. However, redistributing the national carbon pricing revenues domestically as an equal-per-capita climate dividend compensates this policy side effect, even leading to a small net reduction of the global poverty headcount (−6 million). An additional international climate finance scheme enables a substantial poverty reduction globally and also in Sub-Saharan Africa. Combining national redistribution with international climate finance thus provides an important entry point to climate policy in developing countries.